Iran's Ali Larijani Killed in Strikes; Trump Slams Allies | Horizons Middle East & Africa 3/18/2026
Speakers
Summary
- Iran confirms top security official Ali Larijani killed in Israeli airstrike; war continues for 19 days with no signs of easing, yet global stocks rally for a third day.
- Oil prices sink to around $100 despite supply disruptions, partially offset by Iraq-Turkey pipeline deal resuming some exports; U.S. diesel prices exceed $5, a significant uptick since war start.
- Central bank meetings in focus, especially the Fed; market prices one rate cut in 2026, with concerns about inflationary pressures from energy.
- Ryan Bohl analyzes war could last weeks, with risk of Iran causing more economic damage to deter future conflicts; hardliners may escalate to strategic disruption like energy facility attacks.
- Maurice Gravier trimmed portfolio risk, moving gold and emerging market stocks from overweight to neutral, overweight 3% cash; prefers U.S. assets over Europe due to resilience and valuation.
- Livia Gallarati expects TTF gas prices to rise to 60 euros if Strait of Hormuz remains closed; LNG disruptions from Qatar halt with slow recovery, pressuring global supply.
- NVIDIA restarts H200 production for China after securing licenses, boosting related chip stocks; Tencent and Alibaba earnings upcoming, with AI integration key for growth.
- Nigeria power crisis deepens with nearly half of plants offline due to $4.9 billion debt owed to producers, threatening grid stability and economic recovery.
- Markets may underestimate risk of protracted conflict, which could lead to global recession if oil prices sustain higher; interception rates high but infrastructure damage risk remains.
- Geopolitical tensions highlight dollar as safe haven, up over 2% since war inception; yields drift as investors monitor central bank reactions to commodity pressures.
Trade Ideas
Maurice Gravier explicitly stated that Emirates NBD moved gold from overweight to neutral in their portfolios. Gold was acting as a crisis asset but has become crowded, and higher financial conditions reduce its immediate attractiveness. Neutral direction because they no longer see an edge in being overweight gold, trimming risk amid market uncertainty. If the Iran conflict escalates further, gold could rally again as a safe-haven asset, making neutral positioning premature.
Livia Gallarati said TTF gas prices could rise all the way to 60 euros if disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz closure continue. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, halting LNG exports from Qatar, and recovery will be slow and uneven, leading to supply tightness in global gas markets. Long direction due to expected upward pressure on prices from sustained supply disruptions and increased demand for alternatives. If the Strait of Hormuz reopens sooner than expected or supply recovers quickly, price increases may be limited.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published March 18, 2026, features Maurice Gravier, Livia Gallarati discussing GOLD, UNG. 2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Maurice Gravier, Livia Gallarati · Tickers: GOLD, UNG