The speaker states that as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut, "we're going to continue to see upward pressure on these oil and global energy markets." She provides context that 20 vessels have been targeted and Iran is maintaining control of the passage. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments. Its closure or high-risk status directly constrains supply. The ongoing geopolitical blockade creates a persistent, tangible supply-side risk, justifying a WATCH for potential price increases. A diplomatic resolution that reopens the strait or secures safe passage, reducing the supply risk premium.