Wall Street Loves Circle, Crypto's Next Bullish Catalyst?

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  June 10, 2025 at 20:00  |  8:51  |  1000x Podcast
Speakers
Avi Felman — Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management
Jonah Van Bourg — Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol

Summary

The hosts discuss Circle's post-IPO surge and debate its business quality. Avi and Jonah criticize Circle's valuation, low margins, payments to Coinbase and market makers, and sensitivity to rate cuts. They also note strong crypto exposure demand and warn that hype-driven crypto equities like Robinhood, Coinbase, and MSTR-playbook names could face a correction.

  • Circle IPO traded up sharply, drawing intense retail and institutional interest.
  • Avi argues Circle is overvalued and a poor business with thin margins.
  • Jonah explains Circle pays Coinbase and market makers, making USDC economics expensive and not sticky.
  • Falling rates would pressure Circle's stablecoin reserve revenue.
  • Tether is described as dominant and more profitable than Circle.
  • Avi sees continued demand for crypto exposure products despite stretched valuations.
  • Avi warns of eventual corrections in Robinhood, Coinbase, and MSTR-playbook companies.
  • No active short is recommended; sentiment remains hype-driven for now.
Ideas
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 1:56
Circle is overvalued and a poor business.
Avi argues Circle is overvalued and a poor business: it trades around a $22B market cap with $1.6B of 2024 revenue and only $18M net income, implying roughly 1% EBITDA margins, and it is fighting a losing battle against Tether. He says the post-IPO surge reflects intense demand for stablecoin exposure rather than company quality, and that even if the stock 10xes from here he still would not touch it.
CRCL HIGH
Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 3:01
Circle's margins and revenue face rate risk.
Jonah explains Circle's low margins are structural: it pays most profits away to Coinbase and market makers to promote and mint USDC. Market-maker mints are not sticky and can migrate to Tether, making the incentive spend expensive and ineffective; further, falling interest rates will slash Circle's reserve revenue. He concludes it is a terrible company at a fair-to-rich valuation that retail degens have bid to the moon.
CRCL HIGH
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 5:46
Crypto equities face correction after hype fades.
Avi warns that hype-driven crypto-linked equities, including Robinhood, Coinbase, and companies following the MSTR playbook, are likely to face a large market correction at some point. However, he says current investor appetite for crypto exposure remains strong, so this is a monitorable correction setup rather than an immediate short.
HOOD COIN MSTR playbook companies MED
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This 1000x Podcast video, published June 10, 2025, features Avi Felman, Jonah Van Bourg discussing CRCL, HOOD, COIN, MSTR playbook companies. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Avi Felman, Jonah Van Bourg  · Tickers: CRCL, HOOD, COIN, MSTR playbook companies