Ideas
Follow uptrend, stay long with exit plan.
Despite bearish sentiment and longer-term topping concerns, the price trend for U.S. equities is still up, so he follows the trend and remains long with profit targets and an exit plan. His equity allocation is split between the S&P 500 and QQQ.
Leveraged miners signal speculative top.
The rush into leveraged precious-metal juniors like GDXJ and silver-miner juniors is an aggressive sentiment signal. While gold, silver, and miners are in bull markets, the move into the most highly leveraged plays often precedes a market direction change and economic reset, making them vulnerable to a sharp reversal.
Silver measured move, expect sharp pullback.
Silver broke out of a long bull flag and has reached its 100% Fibonacci measured move. He sees the conservative upside play as completed, expects a sharp pullback after an emotional rally, and does not think it is heading to $50 or $100 now.
Gold to stall, outperform silver.
Gold has been the leader but is stalling, and he expects gold and silver to roll over. However, he expects gold to fall less than silver and retain more value, so it should relatively outperform silver during the pullback.
Ten-year yields likely break higher.
The 10-year Treasury yield chart is strong and he does not expect a sharp drop; the more likely break is higher yields, which would hurt the bond market and damage sectors in the stock market.
Higher yields may hurt US dollar.
If 10-year yields break higher and investors lose faith in the U.S., he expects that to hurt the U.S. dollar. This is a conditional cross-asset implication of his higher-yield scenario.
Hold 70% cash in stage three.
In a stage-three, volatile, high-rate environment with weak economic data and policy uncertainty, he is holding 70% cash to preserve capital and collect interest, with only 30% in equities. He prefers cash over all-in exposure until a clearer trend emerges.
Equal-weight and small caps remain topping.
Stripping out mega-cap tech, the equal-weighted S&P 500, Russell 2000 small caps, and micro caps have been in a long topping phase since 2021. Most individual stocks and portfolios are far from highs, and he thinks this broad market eventually resolves to the downside.
High-dividend stocks risk panic selling.
High-dividend stocks, represented by SPYD, are in a distribution phase with heavy selling and lower highs/lows. In a bear market, the retiree/income crowd may panic and sell the same stocks at once, and dividend cuts can force institutional selling; historically dividend stocks fall more than the S&P 500 in crashes. He would rather buy them after a financial reset.
Energy breakdown supports inverse ETF trade.
Energy stocks have broken down and formed a large bear flag. He expects a massive unwinding and selloff in the energy sector and says it is a great inverse trade by buying an inverse ETF on the sector.
REITs vulnerable in market crashes.
REITs pay high dividends but have weak charts with lower highs and lower lows. During market crashes, REIT ETFs sell off hard—down 43% in 2022 and much more in 2008—so the passive-income appeal masks significant downside risk.
Bitcoin bull flag, long IBIT.
Bitcoin has pulled back into a bull-flag pattern, and the recent news-driven flush-out low looks like a shakeout that should reverse higher. He expects Bitcoin to rise with the stock market and is long IBIT, the ETF that tracks Bitcoin, seeing more upside potential.
This The David Lin Report video, published June 07, 2025,
features Chris Vermeulen
discussing SPY, QQQ, GDXJ, SILJ, SILVER, GLD, 10-Year Treasury Yield, USD, CASH, RSP, IWM, SPYD, XLE, XLRE, IBIT, BTC.
12 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Chris Vermeulen
· Tickers:
SPY,
QQQ,
GDXJ,
SILJ,
SILVER,
GLD,
10-Year Treasury Yield,
USD,
CASH,
RSP,
IWM,
SPYD,
XLE,
XLRE,
IBIT,
BTC
