Ideas
S&P to 6,250 then 30% drop.
Gareth expects the S&P 500 may first grind up to around 6,250/new all-time highs as retail and late hedge funds chase the market and the Trump put remains in place, but he sees the long-term logarithmic trendline from 1929/dot-com highs and a slowing economy/historically expensive valuations making the index vulnerable to a 10-30% drawdown. He says the market is running out of energy and the trigger will be when the labor market fully cracks.
SMH at resistance, pullback risk.
Semiconductors are nearing major resistance: the SMH has run into the lower band of a long-term trendline and a gap-fill zone from prior highs, and it started pulling back intraday. Gareth sees this as a sign the market is running out of energy and expects semis to weaken, especially if economic data weaken.
Nasdaq at 21,000 faces big fall.
The Nasdaq is trading in a long-term parallel channel; if it reaches roughly 21,000 it will hit upper-channel and Fibonacci resistance, where Gareth expects rejection and the next big fall. He notes that even if it reaches the upper band, that is only about 6.7% more upside, so upside is limited versus downside.
Short Bitcoin at 115k resistance.
Bitcoin is capped near $115,000 by a multi-year parallel trendline and is likely to be rejected there, especially if the Nasdaq and S&P weaken. Gareth is short Bitcoin with a stop just above $115,000 for short-term traders.
Gold bullish, target 4,000-5,000.
Gold is in bullish consolidation after a steep move, holding above a trendline connecting recent highs. As long as roughly $3,140-$3,150 holds, Gareth sees a strongly bullish bias and upside to $4,000, potentially $5,000, over the next year or two; a break below $3,150 would be concerning.
Platinum, palladium catch-up above 1500.
Platinum and palladium are much rarer than gold but have lagged badly; Gareth likes them as a catch-up trade and for fiat diversification. He says palladium has a classic breakout/retrace setup and could see both platinum and palladium north of $1,500 in the not-too-distant future.
Silver outperform gold, target 50.
Silver is playing catch-up to gold, helped by a historically low silver/gold ratio and a possible short squeeze. Gareth expects silver to outperform gold in coming months, with a $50 target if it breaks above the ~$37.50 pivot.
Buy bonds, yields headed lower.
Gareth would buy bonds because the 10-year yield has retraced to wedge resistance and should fall. Falling yields would signal a weaker US economy and more Fed rate cuts, supporting bond prices.
Buy bonds, yields headed lower.
Gareth would buy bonds because the 10-year yield has retraced to wedge resistance and should fall. Falling yields would signal a weaker US economy and more Fed rate cuts, supporting bond prices.
Favor foreign stocks over US.
For the rest of the year Gareth favors foreign stocks over expensive US equities, expecting money to rotate out of the US into unloved international markets that have been beaten down.
Brazil ETF wedge breakout expected.
Brazil is one of Gareth's favorite foreign markets: it has been in a long downtrend and is unloved while US equities absorbed investment, but the Brazil ETF is forming a wedge pattern and he expects a breakout.
China stocks near major breakout.
Chinese stocks are beaten down and near a major breakout; Gareth thinks Trump wants a deal with China to avoid tariff pressure on the US economy, so he sees upside despite trade-war risk. He would limit position size to manage that risk.
Alibaba breakout, chart goes higher.
Alibaba has already broken out of its long downtrend; after a classic breakdown and retrace to prior support, Gareth thinks the chart is going to go higher.
This The David Lin Report video, published June 10, 2025,
features Gareth Soloway
discussing SPY, SMH, QQQ, BTC, GLD, PPLT, PALL, SILVER, TLT, 10-Year Treasury Yield, VXUS, EWZ, FXI, BABA.
13 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Gareth Soloway
· Tickers:
SPY,
SMH,
QQQ,
BTC,
GLD,
PPLT,
PALL,
SILVER,
TLT,
10-Year Treasury Yield,
VXUS,
EWZ,
FXI,
BABA
