Stocks Slump on AI, Tariff Jitters | Bloomberg Businessweek Daily 2/23/26
Speakers
Christopher Waller — Governor, Federal Reserve
— Chopping Block co-host
Summary
- Market Sentiment: US Markets are under pressure (S&P 500 -1%, Nasdaq -1.16%) driven by a convergence of "AI jitters," tariff uncertainty, and geopolitical concerns. Tech and delivery companies are taking the hardest hits.
- Tariff Policy Chaos: Following a Supreme Court ruling striking down previous tariffs, the Trump administration signed a new executive order for a 15% global tariff (valid for 150 days). This creates a "one step forward, two steps back" environment of high uncertainty for importers and business planning.
- Private Credit Stress: Blue Owl (OWL) is gating a fund, preventing withdrawals, signaling potential liquidity stress in the private credit sector, particularly regarding exposure to software and AI companies.
- GLP-1 Divergence: A major shift in the weight-loss drug narrative occurred as Novo Nordisk (NVO) data disappointed relative to Eli Lilly (LLY), causing a massive divergence in their stock performance.
- AI Skepticism: Nassim Taleb warns that early AI pioneers may not be the ultimate winners and predicts bankruptcies, contributing to a broader selloff in AI-linked names.
Trade Ideas
Blue Owl (OWL) shares are down for a third consecutive day. Bloomberg reported they have "firmly shut the gates" on one of their funds, preventing investor withdrawals. Gating a fund is a major red flag for liquidity and solvency perception. It suggests the underlying assets (private credit loans, specifically in tech/software) may be under stress or difficult to value/sell. AVOID. "The word 'private' worries people... fear of the unknown." Until liquidity terms are clarified, the stock faces significant sentiment headwinds. Bank of America called the selloff "misinformation" and a buying opportunity; if the portfolio proves resilient, the stock could bounce.
Gold is up $102, back at $5209/oz. The combination of "geopolitical concerns," "tariff jitters," and a general equity market selloff (-1%) drives capital into safe-haven assets. LONG. Uncertainty regarding US trade policy and global stability supports the bid for hard assets. A strengthening USD or hawkish Fed commentary could cap gains.
"Anxiety over the impact on AI on company profits" is driving a selloff. Specific software names are down significantly: Microsoft (-2.7%), Palantir (-3.7%), and Oracle (-5.4%). The market is repricing the immediate profitability of AI. The narrative has shifted from "growth at all costs" to "show me the profits," causing a rotation out of high-flying software names. SHORT/WATCH. Momentum is currently negative as the market digests the reality of AI monetization timelines. A sudden positive shift in sentiment or strong earnings reports could reverse the trend.
Domino's (DPZ) reported a "larger than expected rise in comparable sales." Shares are up 4.4%. Rival Papa John's (PZZA) is up 3.7% in sympathy. Strong comps indicate the consumer is still spending on affordable convenience food. Additionally, the severe blizzard in the Northeast (mentioned throughout the video) historically boosts delivery demand. LONG. Earnings beat combined with weather-driven demand creates a favorable setup. Continued input cost inflation or consumer spending pullback.
Novo Nordisk (NVO) reported data showing "less weight loss than Eli Lilly's rival blockbuster." NVO shares are down 16.5%, while Eli Lilly (LLY) is up 3.9%. In a duopoly market, a performance miss by one player directly benefits the competitor. The market is aggressively repricing market share expectations in favor of LLY. LONG LLY / SHORT NVO. The data provides a fundamental reason for LLY to capture a premium valuation over NVO. Regulatory intervention or supply chain issues for LLY.
A security research report highlights risks AI poses to various sectors, causing a specific selloff. DoorDash, KKR, and Blackstone are down >8%. Uber, Mastercard, Visa, Capital One, and Apollo are down >3%. The report suggests AI efficiency could "replace white-collar jobs" and disrupt business models in gig economy, finance, and private equity. The market is pricing in "AI displacement risk" for these specific tickers. SHORT. The market is reacting violently to the narrative that AI is a deflationary force for these specific business models. The report may be hyperbolic; these companies are also adopters of AI which could eventually improve margins.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published February 23, 2026, features James Crombie, Charlie Pellett, Carol Massar discussing OWL, GOLD, MSFT, PLTR, ORCL, DPZ, PZZA, LLY, NVO, DASH, UBER, KKR, BX, APO, MA, V, COF. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: James Crombie, Charlie Pellett, Carol Massar · Tickers: OWL, GOLD, MSFT, PLTR, ORCL, DPZ, PZZA, LLY, NVO, DASH, UBER, KKR, BX, APO, MA, V, COF