Canada and Mexico are the biggest winners from tariff relief, says Strategas' Dan Clifton

Clifton explicitly states, "The biggest winners continue to be Canada and Mexico, which are going to get very significant relief from this. About $30 billion overall." The removal of the worst-case tariff scenario for US neighbors acts as a massive stimulus (or rather, avoided cost) for their economies. As trade uncertainty clears and exemption is granted, these specific country indices should outperform relative to markets still facing trade barriers. Long Canada and Mexico equities as the primary beneficiaries of US trade policy relief. Reversal of the relief decision or renewed threats from the US administration after the 150-day Section 122 period expires.

When asking who wins on a 15% rate, Clifton answers: "Well, the Asian supply countries." The market had priced in potentially much more aggressive or blanket tariffs. A standardized 15% rate, while a cost, provides certainty and is lower than the extreme tail risks previously feared, allowing Asian exporters to stabilize. Long Asian markets (excluding China specific risks if 301 targets them heavily) as they benefit from the "better than feared" tariff structure. Escalation of Section 301 investigations specifically targeting Asian supply chains later in the year.

Clifton notes, "The tariff effective rate is going lower here... and it's probably peak tariff in 2025. We're not talking about higher tariffs." Markets despise uncertainty more than bad news. The transition from chaotic threats to a defined legal framework (Section 301) and a lower effective rate removes a major overhang for the broader US economy and corporate earnings. Long broad US equities as the "Peak Tariff" narrative takes hold and uncertainty dissipates. If Congress surprisingly intervenes or if the transition to Section 301 authority faces legal challenges that reintroduce volatility.