The consumer is under an "income squeeze" with spending outpacing income growth, financed by savings/credit. The ~$350/household oil price shock negates the benefit of larger tax refunds, disproportionately impacting lower-income consumers. Lower-income households, which spend a higher portion of income on essentials like fuel and food, will be forced to pull back on discretionary spending. This strains broader economic momentum. AVOID the consumer non-durables sector (e.g., everyday goods) due to impending pressure on volume and pricing power as the most sensitive consumer cohort retrenches. A rapid decline in energy prices or a stronger-than-expected labor market could bolster consumer resilience.