Long-End U.S. Treasuries Loading... : Investor Sentiment and Bull/Bear Views
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21:46
Sep 16
Sep 16
Long-end sovereign yields are too cheap.
The long end of U.S., Japanese, and Australian government bonds has sold off too far and reached maximum pain. He argues central banks are hiking to reestablish credibility, Treasury Secretary Bessent can further stabilize the long end, and nominal and real yields are simply too cheap, making this a good buying opportunity.
HIGH
21:46
Sep 16
Sep 16
Long-end bonds face oil and Fed risk.
The long end is more volatile and dependent on Middle East developments. Higher oil prices could push long-end yields higher again, and a dovish Fed message or only one hike in the dots could trigger another long-end selloff.
MED
15:03
Sep 10
Sep 10
Long-end Treasury yields keep rising
Long-end Treasury yields are likely to stay elevated because of fiscal deficits, shrinking central bank buying, AI data center infrastructure issuance, and strong nominal GDP growth.
HIGH
18:53
Sep 03
Sep 03
Fed hikes could stabilize long-end Treasuries.
BNP Paribas forecasts three Fed hikes beginning in December. A more credible, hawkish Fed could bring stability to the long end and modestly lower long-end Treasury yields, which would help corporate borrowers access that part of the curve.
MED
15:48
Sep 02
Sep 02
Fed not hiking could pressure long bonds.
She warns the bigger risk for bond markets is that the Fed fails to hike in September despite hawkish rhetoric, repeating the July dynamic and leaving inflation simmering, which would put more pressure on the long end.
MED
14:10
Sep 01
Sep 01
Avoid long-end bonds amid uncertainty.
He cannot predict how growth, inflation, uncertainty around two wars, and upcoming elections will affect the long end of the bond market, so he would stay away from long-end bonds.
HIGH
17:07
Aug 28
Aug 28
Warsh comments could move long-term yields.
Matt is watching the long end of the Treasury market around Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks: if Warsh is too vague on the path to 2% inflation or too hawkish, long-term yields can move higher, while saying very little could create more market volatility.
MED
17:10
Aug 27
Aug 27
Deficits and strong growth pressure Treasury yields.
Interest rates and the long end of the Treasury curve are being driven by fundamental pressures: strong nominal growth, growing U.S. deficits and roughly $40 trillion in debt, and hyperscaler debt issuance that is drawing demand away from Treasuries. He agrees with Druckenmiller that Washington cannot let itself off the hook, implying upward pressure on long-end Treasury yields.
MED
15:56
Aug 21
Aug 21
Treasury cannot control 30-year yields.
The Treasury's verbal intervention and buyback plans are a short-term measure; the Treasury cannot control the 30-year yield, and poor debt dynamics will keep pushing long-end yields higher until fiscal prudence is forced.
HIGH
07:56
Aug 21
Aug 21
Long-end Treasuries face structural yield pressure.
Bessent's buyback/fiscal measures will only provide temporary relief; term premium has risen from near zero to 80 basis points and investors demand more to hold long-dated Treasuries, while heavy AI-related debt issuance from chipmakers and AI projects is still in early stages and will keep competition for funds intense, pressuring longer-dated U.S. yields higher.
HIGH
23:17
Aug 19
Aug 19
Treasury buyback support may not last
The Treasury's increased buybacks of longer-dated debt are a tactical move using short-term borrowing to pull down 30-year yields, but they do not address the underlying $40 trillion debt and worsening fiscal trajectory. With officials still worried about sticky inflation, the long-end yield relief may not last and borrowing costs could rise again.
MED
15:01
Aug 19
Aug 19
Treasury buybacks support long-end Treasuries short term
The Treasury's increased long-end buybacks are effectively Operation Twist: it buys the long end and issues more at the short end to influence yields in the short term. El-Erian sees the 5.3% long-end yield as a pain point and believes the move can provide short-term support to long-end Treasury prices, though not a durable solution.
HIGH
12:00
Aug 15
Aug 15
Long-end Treasury yields may back up further.
The long end of the U.S. Treasury curve should keep facing upward yield pressure because heavy Treasury supply, including $673 billion in one week, large global fiscal deficits, and AI-related financing are pushing real rates higher; markets may require even higher long-end yields to absorb the financing.
HIGH
13:30
Jun 18
Jun 18
Long-end Treasuries attractive on lower volatility
The Fed's clear focus on inflation and potential operational improvements from task forces could reduce volatility at the long end of the yield curve, making long-end Treasuries more attractive for investors; at the margin, it is positive for duration.
MED
16:29
Feb 10
Feb 10
Long-end Treasuries are attractive.
He disagrees with selling the long end: the Treasury wants long-end yields lower, Fed cuts and falling inflation should help, and the deficit improved, making bonds attractive with the 10-year potentially near 3.75%.
HIGH
16:29
Feb 10
Feb 10
Long-end yields stay range-bound.
He expects interest rates to stay range-bound at lower levels, especially on the long end, because the economy is seeing a soft landing and does not need more rate cuts, while softer employment provides relief for housing and manufacturing.
MED
12:03
Jan 13
Jan 13
Fed takeover steepens curve, weakens dollar.
If the Supreme Court allows Lisa Cook's firing and Trump effectively controls the Fed, long-end Treasury yields would steepen substantially. Those shock-absorber trades already moved last year but have more room to run in that scenario.
MED
15:09
Jan 02
Jan 02
Long-end Treasuries are controlled and attractive.
Zervos argues the long end of the bond market is under control because the Treasury is focused on it and has issuance and buyback tools to beat back bond vigilantes and foreign sellers. Even without that, inflation expectations, forward breakevens, and surveys are coming down, so long-end yields should stay contained, supporting long-end Treasuries.
HIGH
About Long-End U.S. Treasuries Investor Commentary
Across the available history and selected sources, Buzzberg tracks Long-End U.S. Treasuries across 2 sources: 6 bullish vs 5 bearish calls from 18 authors. Historical directional balance: 6% = 100 × (bullish − bearish) / all deduplicated idea records, including other directions. This is neither a probability of a price rise nor the share of bullish authors. 18 total trade ideas tracked. Past 7 days, before deduplication: 1 bullish, 1 other directions. Latest voices: Bob Michele, Subadra Rajappa, Kurt Reiman.