Ideas
Rotate America; avoid Treasuries, dollar.
The environment is conducive for risk and investors should rotate within America rather than sell America, which leaves Treasuries and the dollar most at risk. U.S. growth has been underestimated and debt issuance is being absorbed well, supporting risk assets, while long-duration Treasuries and the dollar face headwinds.
Rotate America; avoid Treasuries, dollar.
The environment is conducive for risk and investors should rotate within America rather than sell America, which leaves Treasuries and the dollar most at risk. U.S. growth has been underestimated and debt issuance is being absorbed well, supporting risk assets, while long-duration Treasuries and the dollar face headwinds.
Expect steeper, bear-twist Treasury curve.
He expects a duration-neutral, steeper Treasury curve as a Warsh-led Fed, committee dynamics, and any Fed-Treasury accord reduce long-end Fed buying and push long yields higher; he targets around 120 basis points and sees a bear steepener or bear twist.
Hyperscaler spreads widen; overweight utilities.
Hyperscaler capex and debt issuance are rising faster than cash flows, so hyperscaler credit spreads should widen and carry a penalty; utilities are a more credit-friendly way to gain AI-buildout exposure, and she recommends overweighting utilities versus hyperscalers, potentially using hybrids for yield.
Hyperscaler spreads widen; overweight utilities.
Hyperscaler capex and debt issuance are rising faster than cash flows, so hyperscaler credit spreads should widen and carry a penalty; utilities are a more credit-friendly way to gain AI-buildout exposure, and she recommends overweighting utilities versus hyperscalers, potentially using hybrids for yield.
Equity drawdown over; breakout soon.
The expected drawdown is behind us after capitulation in silver, bitcoin, software and meme stocks, sentiment and institutional exposure have reset, and the fundamental backdrop is good, so the equity market should break out soon.
Cyclicals can keep leading.
Cyclicals are one leadership area that can continue as the equity market broadens and the economy gets support from fiscal, monetary and hyperscaler capex stimulus.
Software has bottomed short term.
Software has been hit hard in the capitulation and has bottomed in the short term, so he sees a powerful bounce in those names.
Energy benefits from AI buildout.
Energy and some equipment can continue to work because of the power of the AI and data-center buildout.
Long-end Treasuries are attractive.
He disagrees with selling the long end: the Treasury wants long-end yields lower, Fed cuts and falling inflation should help, and the deficit improved, making bonds attractive with the 10-year potentially near 3.75%.
Favor physical assets over AI visuals.
Market leadership year-to-date shows physical over visual: energy, industrials, cyclicals, emerging markets, Asia ex-Japan and Japan have outperformed as the AI trade changes shape, contradicting the view that AI only benefits tech profitability.
AI disruption threatens loans, private credit.
A rapid and severe AI disruption scenario could materially raise defaults in credit markets; leveraged loan and private credit defaults could spike, making those asset classes vulnerable, especially given the huge AI-related issuance and underwriting before AI disruption was fully understood.
Rotate to value cyclicals, non-U.S.
He sees the first fundamental market rotation since 2021 and recommends moving down in market cap and out of large growth stocks into value cyclicals, specifically financials, industrials, energy, consumer areas, and non-U.S. equities, as the macro backdrop broadens and incremental earnings accrue to left-behind areas.
Long-end yields stay range-bound.
He expects interest rates to stay range-bound at lower levels, especially on the long end, because the economy is seeing a soft landing and does not need more rate cuts, while softer employment provides relief for housing and manufacturing.
This Bloomberg Markets video, published February 10, 2026,
features Marvin Loh, Meghan Robson, Eric Johnston, Mike Pyle, Matthew Mish, Michael Kantrowitz
discussing U.S. risk assets, TLT, UUP, U.S. Treasury yield curve steepener, Utilities sector credit, Hyperscaler credit, SPY, XLI, IGV, XLE, Long-End U.S. Treasuries, EEM, AAXJ, EWJ, Leveraged Loans, BIZD, Value cyclicals, XLF, XLY, Non-U.S. equities.
14 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Marvin Loh,
Meghan Robson,
Eric Johnston,
Mike Pyle,
Matthew Mish,
Michael Kantrowitz
· Tickers:
U.S. risk assets,
TLT,
UUP,
U.S. Treasury yield curve steepener,
Utilities sector credit,
Hyperscaler credit,
SPY,
XLI,
IGV,
XLE,
Long-End U.S. Treasuries,
EEM,
AAXJ,
EWJ,
Leveraged Loans,
BIZD,
Value cyclicals,
XLF,
XLY,
Non-U.S. equities
