BO BORR Borr Drilling Limited Loading... : Investor Sentiment and Bull/Bear Views

The author bought $430k of BORR solely because the founder, with a net worth around $200-300 million, purchased about $37 million of stock, with insider trades accelerating after Oct 8. The implied mechanism is that concentrated insider buying signals the founder's confidence in the company's prospects. The author's own framing ('Am I fucked?') acknowledges the position is a concentrated, conviction-based bet with no other stated catalyst or risk analysis.

Go long $BORR, endorsing the quoted supply-focused thesis from the Pareto presentation and CEO Bruno Morand's purchase of 45,500 shares at $4.40, which signals insider confidence.

The author holds 50,000 BORR shares at $4.27 and argues $2.3bn of fixed net debt sits under a 29-rig modern jack-up fleet, so any dayrate/fleet re-rating is amplified several times into the equity — a leveraged call option on the shallow-water cycle rather than a book-value play (stock trades ~1.5x the $3.12/share book). Supporting evidence cited: Q2 2026's $241m loss was 73% a refinancing charge with 98.4% technical utilization, maturities were pushed out to 2032/2034, 2026 coverage is 73% at ~$134k/day, and a board insider bought after the selloff. The stated catalyst is Q3 results on 18 Nov 2026, where management promised Adjusted EBITDA would 'improve significantly' (toward $90-110m), with the demand story pointed at 2027-28. Main stated risks: Altman Z-Score of 0.37, ~$200m+/yr interest plus ~$104m/yr amortisation starting July 2027, negative Q2 operating cash flow, rigs carried above recent transaction comps, and ''the downside bar is not decoration — at $60m/rig the equity is gone.''