BA The Boeing Company : Bullish and Bearish Analyst Opinions

Boeing's moon rocket faces uncertain future.

A US F-15 fighter jet was shot down in Iran. Boeing (BA) manufactures the F-15. The loss of the aircraft in a high-profile geopolitical event creates negative sentiment around the manufacturer. Puts on BA based on the negative PR and potential fallout from the downed jet. Defense contractors often benefit from war/escalation due to replacement orders.

Cramer stated he owns Boeing for his charitable trust and called it a "terrific terrific situation." He groups Boeing with Lockheed Martin as a defense stock that benefits from the changed world since February 28th (presumably referencing the Iran conflict) and the need for a stronger defense posture. Boeing is a buy as a play on increased defense and aerospace spending in the current geopolitical climate. Continued execution problems and manufacturing issues specific to Boeing outweigh the broader defense tailwinds.

Cramer said, "Yes, I think Boeing is going to be one of the big stocks of 2026" and that it is "refreshed and ready" during the lightning round. After prior struggles, Boeing is poised for recovery and growth, with Cramer expressing confidence in its turnaround. LONG because of expected stock appreciation driven by operational improvements and market recovery. Further production issues or safety concerns derailing the turnaround.

Greer explicitly stated that the U.S. wants to sell Boeings to China as part of optimizing bilateral trade. The proposed U.S.-China Board of Trade could formalize mechanisms to increase U.S. exports, including Boeing aircraft, to the Chinese market. This indicates potential growth in Boeing's sales and revenue from China, supporting a LONG view. Trade negotiations may fail, or China could resist purchasing Boeing aircraft due to geopolitical tensions or competing interests.

Cramer states the negative narrative around Boeing is about reduced plane orders due to the war, but the actual order backlog is "stretched as far as the eye can see." The disconnect between a strong fundamental backlog and a negative war-related narrative creates a buying opportunity. The stock is a buy because the underlying business strength (backlog) is not reflected in the current negative market sentiment. Escalation or prolongation of the war further dampening the aerospace narrative.

The trade is to short Boeing based on the fundamental headwind of losing a significant role in NASA's moon mission to its primary competitor, SpaceX.

Boeing has received a key regulatory approval from the FAA for its 777-9 program, a positive catalyst that de-risks the timeline for a long-delayed and important product.

"We are the strongest nation in the world... We have the strongest military, by far. We don't need them... Put it this way, if we ever need them, they won't be there." The President emphasizes unilateral US military strength and expresses deep skepticism towards traditional allies' reliability. This rhetoric and the ongoing prosecution of a large-scale air campaign (7,000+ targets) signal a continued, and potentially expanded, commitment to robust defense spending and autonomous military capability, benefiting prime defense contractors. This is LONG on major US defense contractors, as the administration's posture favors sustained or increased domestic military investment and production. A sudden, negotiated end to the conflict could lead to calls for a "peace dividend" and reduced spending. Political opposition could challenge the defense budget.

"And there's also the Boeing deal on the table." Aircraft orders are historically the most efficient way for foreign nations to quickly close trade deficits with the United States in a single stroke. A finalized "Boeing deal" driven by state-level negotiations will result in massive, guaranteed order backlogs for the aerospace manufacturer, bypassing normal commercial airline procurement cycles. LONG. A state-sponsored mega-order from China provides immediate revenue visibility and serves as a major upside catalyst for the stock. The deal is entirely dependent on the successful execution of the Trump-Xi summit; if diplomatic relations sour over the Middle East conflict, Boeing orders are typically the first retaliatory cancellation.

We think this number will be north of 100 billion... Congress is preparing for a supplemental request from the Pentagon to sustain what is happening in the Middle East. The US has already struck 15,000 targets in two weeks, rapidly depleting existing munitions stockpiles. A $100B+ supplemental package, combined with Trump's request for a 50% baseline defense budget increase, will flow directly to the prime contractors manufacturing these weapons. LONG. The sheer volume of ordnance expended guarantees years of backlog for major defense primes to restock the military. The supplemental bill gets tied to unrelated partisan issues (like farm aid) and fails to pass through congressional reconciliation.

Iran's arsenal of cheap, plentiful drones and ballistic missiles is forcing American forces to burn through high-end and hard to replace interceptors... The US is trying to ramp up from producing just under 100 air defense interceptors a year, trying to get up to 400. Asymmetric warfare is forcing the US military to deplete its stockpiles of advanced munitions at an unsustainable rate. This guarantees massive, long-term government contracts for prime defense contractors to replenish inventories and expand manufacturing capacity for air defense systems. LONG. The structural depletion of US and allied munitions creates a highly visible, multi-year backlog for aerospace and defense manufacturers. Supply chain bottlenecks (e.g., solid rocket motor shortages) could prevent these companies from actually scaling production to meet the government's demand, delaying revenue recognition.

"Boeing was facing a new issue with wiring, the quality around some of the wiring... As a result, shares lower in US trading." Continued quality control issues and production defects erode airline customer confidence and delay revenue recognition, compounding the company's existing reputational and financial struggles. SHORT Boeing as ongoing manufacturing defects hinder its recovery and threaten production targets. The issue is resolved faster than expected without impacting annual delivery targets; strong duopoly market dynamics force airlines to stick with orders regardless of delays.

"Boeing said that a wiring flaw found on its 737 Max will delay some deliveries of the jet... the Street is not really liking this news." Persistent quality control and manufacturing lapses continue to erode trust with airline customers and regulators. Even if annual delivery targets remain technically unchanged, these recurring issues invite stricter FAA oversight, increase rework costs, and cap near-term free cash flow generation. SHORT. The market is losing patience with Boeing's inability to execute a clean manufacturing process, making the stock dead money until operational excellence is proven. Management resolves the manufacturing flaws faster than expected, or the global duopoly forces airlines to maintain their order books regardless of delays.

"Their ballistic missile program was actually sufficient to really swamp the state of Israel. And after Israel had expended all of its interceptors..." The severe depletion of Israel's air defense grid creates a massive, inelastic demand to restock interceptors. US defense prime contractors co-produce these critical systems (e.g., RTX for Iron Dome and David's Sling, BA for Arrow 3, LMT for PAC-3) and will receive accelerated, high-priority procurement contracts from the US and allied governments to rebuild the regional deterrent. LONG RTX / BA / LMT as they are the direct beneficiaries of the allied missile defense restocking cycle. US congressional gridlock delays foreign military financing approvals, or persistent aerospace supply chain shortages (specifically in solid rocket motors) cap near-term production capacity.

"Boeing shares... down as much as 4%. Some airlines leasing order discussions, considering halting jet deliveries. Reviewing growth plans as fuel costs rise." Jet fuel is one of the largest operating expenses for airlines. When oil spikes, airline profit margins are crushed. To protect their balance sheets, airlines will cut capacity, delay expansion, and cancel or defer new aircraft orders. This creates a negative feedback loop that directly hits Boeing's revenue and order backlog. SHORT. High energy prices destroy airline profitability and downstream aerospace manufacturing demand. Airlines might successfully pass the increased fuel costs onto consumers via higher ticket prices without destroying travel demand, allowing them to maintain their aircraft order schedules.

The Iran war has airlines reviewing growth plans as fuel costs rise. We heard that some airlines were considering halting jet deliveries... and pause leasing and order discussions. Spiking oil prices squeeze airline operating margins. To preserve cash, airlines will delay capital expenditures, which directly hits Boeing's order book, delivery schedule, and future cash flow visibility. SHORT. Macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures on airlines translate directly into delayed revenue and worsening fundamentals for aircraft manufacturers. A sudden de-escalation in geopolitical conflicts could drop oil prices, causing airlines to quickly resume their expansion and fleet upgrade plans.

We've seen the UAE shoot these down with their Apache helicopters using the machine guns that are already based upon that. That's a much more affordable cost per shot than trying to use a limited Patriot interceptor. As asymmetric drone warfare proliferates, nations are realizing that firing million-dollar interceptor missiles at cheap drones is economically unsustainable. The tactical pivot to using existing rotary-wing assets (like Boeing's AH-64 Apache) and conventional munitions (manufactured by companies like General Dynamics) extends the lifecycle, maintenance contracts, and upgrade cycles for these legacy defense platforms. LONG BA / GD as the shift toward cost-effective kinetic interception methods drives sustained international demand for rotary-wing readiness and conventional ammunition. Defense budgets could eventually bypass legacy helicopters in favor of next-generation directed energy weapons (lasers/microwaves) for drone defense.

Boeing is close to sealing a deal that would sell 500 of its MAX 737 Boeing aircraft to China. Securing a 500-plane order from China would end a multi-year drought for Boeing in one of the world's largest aviation markets, providing a massive boost to its backlog and future cash flows. WATCH. This is a highly lucrative catalyst for Boeing, but it is entirely dependent on the political success of the upcoming US-China presidential summit. The deal is highly politicized and could be easily scuttled if diplomatic talks reach an impasse over tariffs, tech restrictions, or Taiwan.

"We figure about 1 trillion in the first 10 years to the US market but also billions of dollars that will be invested into Iran and everything that we need to have done in order to rebuild our country." A pro-Western transition in Iran would lead to the immediate lifting of sanctions and a desperate need to modernize aging infrastructure. The most critical immediate needs would be civilian aviation (Iran's fleet is dangerously outdated due to sanctions) and heavy construction for rebuilding. Boeing (BA) and Caterpillar (CAT) are the primary US beneficiaries of this "reconstruction super-cycle." LONG. These are the industrial anchors of a "Marshall Plan" for Iran. The regime change fails or results in a prolonged civil war rather than a stable transition, preventing US companies from entering.

The White House met with contractors (Lockheed, Northrop, Boeing) to "quadruple munitions production." General Petraeus highlights "Missile Math," noting the US is firing expensive interceptors (Patriots/SM-6s) faster than they can be replaced against cheap Iranian drones. The depletion of US stockpiles necessitates a massive, multi-year replenishment cycle. This is no longer just about R&D; it is about immediate, high-volume manufacturing orders. Ferguson explicitly states the "big winners" will be Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and Boeing for both long-range and short-range munitions. LONG. The "quadrupling" of production ensures revenue visibility regardless of the war's duration. Supply chain bottlenecks preventing rapid scaling; potential ceasefire reducing urgency (though restocking will still be needed).

Cramer states he has been "scaling out" of Boeing and is now "out of the name." He noted it failed to bounce on recent news. When a stock fails to rally on positive or neutral news and continues a decline, it indicates deep structural weakness and lack of buyer conviction. Exit position immediately. Unexpected regulatory clearance or management turnaround could spark a short squeeze.

Boeing is up 4% on news of a potential 500-aircraft order (737 Max and wide-bodies) linked to President Trump's upcoming visit to Beijing. A diplomatic breakthrough with China would reopen the world's second-largest aviation market to Boeing, ending a "lengthy order drought." This geopolitical catalyst outweighs current production issues. LONG Boeing on the specific catalyst of the China order confirmation. The order is not confirmed, or trade tensions flare up again canceling the deal.

Boeing shares are up 3.9% on news of a massive sale to China, to be unveiled during a Presidential state visit. Geopolitics cuts both ways. While war hurts the broader market, diplomatic wins (US-China trade) provide massive idiosyncratic catalysts. A confirmed sale to China resolves a major overhang for Boeing (lack of access to the Chinese market). Long BA on the specific catalyst of renewed Chinese demand. The deal falls through or US-China tensions flare up over the Iran conflict.

Breaking news that Boeing is closing in on a "500 aircraft order for 737 MAX jets" to be unveiled when President Trump travels to Beijing. This is a massive liquidity injection and backlog booster for Boeing. It also suggests political cover from the Trump administration, insulating Boeing from trade war risks with China. Long Boeing. The sheer volume of the order (500 jets) acts as a hard floor for the stock price and signals a resumption of Chinese deliveries. The deal falls through or is blocked by geopolitical escalation; continued quality control issues at Boeing.

Did Trump Force China's Hand? Beijing Nears 500-Jet Boeing Deal Ahead Of Xi Summit https://t.co/9Mk31htwVW

A massive, impending 500-aircraft order reported by a major news outlet serves as a significant near-term catalyst for the stock.

$BA | China In Talks With Boeing To Order 500 737 Max Jets Also In Talks For About 100 Boeing 787, 777x Widebodies Deal Could Be Unveiled At Planned Trump-Xi Summit

🔴China is in talks with Boeing to order 500 737 Max jets. $BA Negotiations also include around 100 Boeing 787 and 777X widebody aircraft The Boeing–China deal could be unveiled at a planned Trump–Xi summit

*CHINA IN TALKS WITH BOEING TO ORDER 500 737 MAX JETS