2-year Treasury notes Loading... : Investor Sentiment and Bull/Bear Views
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Price change since each call, adjusted for long/short direction. Results calculated:
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21:04
Sep 16
Sep 16
Fed will hike two more times.
Joseph expects at least two more Fed hikes, not just one, because the Fed still sees policy as accommodative and almost no FOMC member views it as restrictive. The dot plot signals higher-for-longer: the 2028 median fed funds rate rose to 3.9% from 3.4%, and longer-run neutral estimates increased, implying hikes followed by an extended hold. The path depends on financial conditions, equities, and Middle East developments.
HIGH
18:04
Sep 02
Sep 02
Own short duration and EM bonds.
The fixed-income side of the portfolio uses short-duration bonds and 2-year notes plus local-currency emerging market bonds to generate cash flow and to capture areas with flat yield curves and high real interest rates.
MED
20:00
Sep 01
Sep 01
Buy front-end Treasurys for Fed cuts.
Rosenberg is positioning in two-year Treasury notes as a bet that the Fed will be forced to cut rates and the front end will rally. He draws a parallel to December 2018, when the Fed's forecast for hikes flipped to three cuts and the front end had a good year. He also argues that a post-midterm split government has historically led to slower growth, slower inflation, and a large Treasury rally, saying the move in the front end is already the thin edge of the wedge.
HIGH
12:59
Aug 31
Aug 31
Expect Fed hike by year-end.
Warsh signaled the Fed must see inflation moving clearly and sufficiently toward 2%, and if he is true to his words the Fed should raise rates by the end of this year; a recovering jobs report would lift those odds and support higher front-end yields.
HIGH
11:54
Aug 01
Aug 01
Short covering will drive 2-year notes higher.
COT data shows that the crowded net long positioning in 2-year notes is driven by shorts covering rather than new longs rushing in, suggesting the rally in 2-year notes still has room to run.
MED
About 2-year Treasury notes Investor Commentary
Across the available history and selected sources, Buzzberg tracks 2-year Treasury notes across 5 sources: 3 bullish vs 2 bearish calls from 4 authors. Historical directional balance: 20% = 100 × (bullish − bearish) / all deduplicated idea records, including other directions. This is neither a probability of a price rise nor the share of bullish authors. 5 total trade ideas tracked. Past 7 days, before deduplication: 1 bearish. Latest voices: Joseph Wang, David Rosenberg, Ven Ram.