AD ADM Archer Daniels Midland Company Loading... : Bullish and Bearish Analyst Opinions

Commodities should outperform over next decade.

Admiral reports H1 2026 earnings with interim dividend and net income below estimates.

ADM raised its 2026 profit outlook for a second time, citing biofuels as a major growth driver.

ADM raised its full-year EPS guidance significantly, driven by strength in biofuels, ag services, and nutrition, with expectations for continued robust performance in the second half.

ADM reports Q2 2026 earnings with adjusted EPS and revenue significantly beating estimates.

Notes ADM's grain trading could benefit from volatile prices.

The author posts research read-throughs on ethanol credits, feedstock policy shifts.

The ethanol segment is benefiting from a production tax credit that adds ~$0.17/gallon in 2026 and ~$0.19/gallon through 2027-2029, nearly doubling mid-cycle margins, which is a significant structural tailwind not fully reflected in historical baseline. — This indicates strong pricing power and profitability for ethanol producers, potentially improving earnings for companies with significant exposure.

Author discloses current long position in ADM with stops at breakeven or better.

Author discloses active long position in ADM with breakeven-or-better stop.

A potential super El Nino would create supply chain challenges globally, but Bunge's diversified footprint would allow it to benefit from the disruption, particularly with its strong Argentina processing assets. — A weather event could be a positive catalyst for Bunge, which can shift flows and optimize its global network, while harming the broader meat and ag production chain.

Author discloses active long position in ADM, currently at profit with stop moved to breakeven.

ADM appointed Syngenta head Jeff Rowe as its chief operating officer to strengthen its.

Cited as an analogy for corn/ag infrastructure lock-in.

Author discloses ADM as a current open position that was actively added to ("bumped up").

ADM and Tyson now have upside potential.

ADM and Tyson now worth buying

Archer-Daniels-Midland raised its outlook following new U.S.

Management raised full-year EPS guidance significantly, driven by improved crushing and ethanol margins following EPA's final RVO rule, and expects this constructive environment to continue.

ADM raised EPS guidance, benefiting from biofuel mandates and Middle East supply disruptions.

The Middle East conflict has disrupted global trade flows, but Bunge is leveraging its 'regional capillarity' to keep supply chains moving, indicating a potential competitive advantage for other companies with diversified footprints. — Companies with less geographic diversification may struggle to maintain supply chain continuity and could lose market share to more agile competitors.

An upcoming high-profile political event focused on biofuels producers could serve.

"China is showing some signs of goodwill, saying that they are open to buying more agricultural products beyond soybeans, including things like poultry, beef... and they are still pledging to fulfill their commitment that 25 million tons of soybeans per year." State-mandated agricultural purchases by China act as a guaranteed demand shock for US agribusiness. Large grain originators and processors (Archer-Daniels-Midland, Bunge) will benefit from the massive soybean export volumes, while major meat producers (Tyson Foods) will capture the upside of the new poultry and beef export agreements. LONG. Guaranteed export volumes to the world's largest consumer market will drive revenue growth and margin expansion for US agricultural and protein suppliers. The broader geopolitical conflict (Iran/Hormuz) or a collapse of the Trump-Xi summit could cause China to instantly revoke these goodwill agricultural purchases.

War in the Middle East is fueling soaring prices for agricultural crops and energy and fertilizer costs increase. Disruptions to crude oil supplies are also boosting the opinion of crop space biofuels, lifting the demand for vegetable oil and corn. High crude prices make biofuels economically viable and highly demanded, diverting agricultural outputs (like corn and vegetable oils) away from food markets and into energy markets. Combined with rising fertilizer costs (tied to energy), the cost of production and the end-market price for agricultural commodities will surge, benefiting agribusinesses and crop funds. LONG. Agricultural commodities and the companies that process them will see increased pricing power and demand due to the biofuel substitution effect. Favorable global weather patterns leading to bumper crop yields could offset the biofuel demand, or a drop in crude oil could destroy the biofuel arbitrage.

The speaker notes President Trump is "very transactional" and predicts he will come to Beijing looking for deals, specifically citing a "large Boeing order" and "increased purchase of ag products." If China wants to stabilize relations and "tariff proof" its economy, purchasing high-ticket US goods is the standard diplomatic lever. A confirmed order boosts Boeing's backlog, while agricultural purchases directly benefit the US ag-complex (Deere for equipment, ADM for grain processing). LONG ahead of the late March Trump visit to capture the "deal announcement" pop. Trump cancels the trip or negotiations break down due to the Iran/Venezuela geopolitical friction.

"Ongoing optimism over renewable volume obligations... has supported soybean oil values rallying 24.9%." Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) and Bunge (BG) are the primary "crushers" that process raw soybeans into soybean oil. If the government mandates higher renewable fuel volumes, the demand for feedstock (soybean oil) surges, typically expanding crush margins and volume for these processors. Long the processors as a "pick and shovel" play on the renewable diesel boom. Input cost inflation (if raw soybean prices rise faster than oil prices) could compress margins.

Long $ADM — speaker discloses Archer Daniels Midland as a current holding.

The market is currently undervaluing potential upside from U.S. biofuel policy (RVO) by not including any assumptions in guidance. — If the RVO is resolved favorably, crush margins could improve sharply, leading to a significant earnings beat versus a conservative guidance range.

Management is guiding to EPS growth in 2026, underpinned by expectations of US biofuel policy clarity, improved global trade, and growth in the nutrition segment, despite ongoing consumer softness in some areas.