Calls
16
#790
Alpha Score 39.2
David Rosenberg
President, Rosenberg Research
Win Rate
56.2%
return
+0.8%
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Ticker
Side
Mentions
First Call
Call Price
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Long
Jun 16
$82.13
-0.5%
Rate hike expectations are overpriced in the front end of the US curve. The Fed will make its next move a cut, not a hike, as the economy weakens in the second half of the year and inflation surprises to the downside. The two-year note yield surged 60-70bp since the war and will revert lower.
Bonds & Rates
Long
May 15
$417.29
-1.7%
Gold is in a secular bull market driven by central bank buying as they diversify reserves away from the dollar. Supply is limited (~1-1.5% annual growth) while demand is rising, and mean reversion of gold's share in FX reserves from 30% toward historical 70% supports a price target of $6,000 and beyond.
Commodities
Long
Feb 06
$25.71
-0.2%
He notes that "Emerging market bonds... local currency" are attractive because "the US dollar is in a bear market." If the USD weakens (bear market), unhedged local currency bonds gain value in dollar terms while offering higher yields than developed market debt. Long Emerging Market Local Currency Bonds. A sudden spike in the USD (flight to safety) would crush local currency returns.
He notes that "Emerging market bonds... local currency" are attractive because "the US dollar is in a bear market." If the USD weakens (bear market), unhedged local currency bonds gain value in dollar terms while offering higher yields than developed market debt. Long Emerging Market Local Currency Bonds. A sudden spike in the USD (flight to safety) would crush local currency returns.
Bonds & Rates
Long
Sep 02
$25.57
+0.8%
Hard assets and commodities have pricing power and hedge goods inflation, tariffs, wars, security of supply, and recurring supply shocks; the portfolio is overweight gold, gold miners, uranium, rare earths, pipelines/energy infrastructure, and base metals.
Commodities
Long
Sep 02
$96.98
+4.7%
Hard assets and commodities have pricing power and hedge goods inflation, tariffs, wars, security of supply, and recurring supply shocks; the portfolio is overweight gold, gold miners, uranium, rare earths, pipelines/energy infrastructure, and base metals.
Thematic ETFs
Long
Sep 02
$75.91
-0.1%
Hard assets and commodities have pricing power and hedge goods inflation, tariffs, wars, security of supply, and recurring supply shocks; the portfolio is overweight gold, gold miners, uranium, rare earths, pipelines/energy infrastructure, and base metals.
Thematic ETFs
Long
Sep 02
$75.81
+0.0%
Hard assets and commodities have pricing power and hedge goods inflation, tariffs, wars, security of supply, and recurring supply shocks; the portfolio is overweight gold, gold miners, uranium, rare earths, pipelines/energy infrastructure, and base metals.
Thematic ETFs
Long
Sep 02
$44.03
+4.0%
Hard assets and commodities have pricing power and hedge goods inflation, tariffs, wars, security of supply, and recurring supply shocks; the portfolio is overweight gold, gold miners, uranium, rare earths, pipelines/energy infrastructure, and base metals.
Thematic ETFs
Long
Sep 02
$141.74
+0.3%
Oil is held as a hedge against escalation in the war and recurring supply shocks; even if the current war ends, unless there is a global recession the supply-demand balance should still favor higher oil prices.
Commodities
Long
Sep 01
$31.95
-0.8%
As part of the low-to-moderate-risk multi-asset allocation, Rosenberg holds 15% in hard assets and commodities as a diversifying hedge. He notes the portfolio spans currencies, commodities, bonds, and equities and is not US-centric, though he does not give a detailed commodity-specific bull case in this excerpt.
Commodities
Long
Aug 20
$63.69
+1.6%
Energy companies are earning outsized profits because of ongoing US-Iran tensions and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict has made energy stocks a strong earnings pocket even as much of the rest of the economy is weak.
Thematic ETFs
Long
May 15
$83.73
-1.9%
Long-term U.S. Treasuries are attractive because the real yield (2.7%) matches the equity market's real yield, but bonds offer certainty of payment and principal, making them a better risk-adjusted choice. Recession risks are high and inflation will likely decline, providing a cushion for bonds.
Bonds & Rates
Long
Feb 06
$102.85
+4.1%
Explicitly mentions liking "European aerospace defense" as a "secular trend that is not going away anytime soon." Geopolitical instability creates a floor for defense spending. European contractors (Airbus, BAE Systems) are the direct beneficiaries of increased EU military budgets, independent of US election volatility. Long European Defense majors (using US ADRs). Regulatory caps on defense profits or a sudden geopolitical de-escalation.
Explicitly mentions liking "European aerospace defense" as a "secular trend that is not going away anytime soon." Geopolitical instability creates a floor for defense spending. European contractors (Airbus, BAE Systems) are the direct beneficiaries of increased EU military budgets, independent of US election volatility. Long European Defense majors (using US ADRs). Regulatory caps on defense profits or a sudden geopolitical de-escalation.
Defense
Long
Feb 06
$56.41
+1.6%
Explicitly mentions liking "European aerospace defense" as a "secular trend that is not going away anytime soon." Geopolitical instability creates a floor for defense spending. European contractors (Airbus, BAE Systems) are the direct beneficiaries of increased EU military budgets, independent of US election volatility. Long European Defense majors (using US ADRs). Regulatory caps on defense profits or a sudden geopolitical de-escalation.
Explicitly mentions liking "European aerospace defense" as a "secular trend that is not going away anytime soon." Geopolitical instability creates a floor for defense spending. European contractors (Airbus, BAE Systems) are the direct beneficiaries of increased EU military budgets, independent of US election volatility. Long European Defense majors (using US ADRs). Regulatory caps on defense profits or a sudden geopolitical de-escalation.
Aerospace
Long
Feb 06
$43.05
+0.8%
Rosenberg states, "I still like Asian equities... they still trade at much more compelling valuations," and specifically highlights that "India looks very attractive." As the US market faces valuation compression (mean reversion), capital will seek growth at reasonable prices. India offers the demographic and structural growth story without the extreme valuation premium of the S&P 500. Long exposure to India as a valuation hedge against US overvaluation. Global risk-off sentiment often drags down Emerging Markets regardless of idiosyncratic strength.
Rosenberg states, "I still like Asian equities... they still trade at much more compelling valuations," and specifically highlights that "India looks very attractive." As the US market faces valuation compression (mean reversion), capital will seek growth at reasonable prices. India offers the demographic and structural growth story without the extreme valuation premium of the S&P 500. Long exposure to India as a valuation hedge against US overvaluation. Global risk-off sentiment often drags down Emerging Markets regardless of idiosyncratic strength.
Equity Indexes
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David Rosenberg has 16 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 16 tickers since February 2026. Win rate 56% across 16 evaluated calls, average return +0.8%. Ranked #790 on the Buzzberg Alpha leaderboard. Most covered: 2-YEAR TREASURY NOTES, GOLD, EMLC.
