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10:40
May 02

Ozark

Korean equities opening through IBKR, to foreigners

02:23
Mar 22

Ozark · Ozark

Into the Dem sweep midterm

OSCR RUN 373220 PLUG 112610 ▾

Author identifies OSCR as the 'ACA pure play insurer' with the 'biggest convexity to ACA credit reversal' based on historical price reaction. Despite a Wells Fargo sell rating, the policy catalyst is strong. Risk: Counterparty risk from concentrated policy dependence; sell-side downgrades.

OSCR WATCH

Author highlights RUN as 'pure-play US residential solar installer' with 30% residential credit as backbone; stock surged 33% on a Treasury guidance headline, showing max convexity to credit reversal. Risk: Highly dependent on policy timeline; business model unviable without credit.

RUN WATCH

Author identifies LG Energy Solution as Korea's #1 battery supplier and notes AMPC is 'literally the only thing keeping this profitable'; restoration of IRA credits (both consumer and AMPC) would directly improve profitability. Risk: Dependence on policy; battery oversupply and utilization remain depressed.

373220 WATCH

Author states PLUG's business 'does not work without 45V' and that cash burn raises 'real dilution/bankruptcy risk before any policy change materializes', highlighting fundamental fragility. Risk: Dilution and bankruptcy risk; hydrogen policy may not be restored quickly enough.

PLUG WATCH

Author notes CS Wind is the global #1 wind tower maker and that ITC/PTC reversal could refill order book, but also explicitly states 'wind is the weakest renewables subsector' and US offshore permitting bottlenecks are structural, not just policy-dependent. Risk: Policy reversal may not overcome structural permitting issues; weak sector dynamics.

112610 WATCH

Author states Dem sweep will provide the 'biggest absolute dollar revenue boost for CNC' and its EV/revenue is at an all-time low of 0.09x vs median 0.35x, implying deep undervaluation if policy reverses. Risk: JP Morgan hold rating with relentless target cuts; Medicaid exposure could face state-level headwinds.

CNC WATCH

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