Noah Smith
· Noahpinion
· 2026년 7월 20일, 06:51
· ⏱ 20 분 소요
| Substack에서 읽기 ↗
요약
The UK's economic stagnation relative to the US and European peers serves as a cautionary tale for America. The article argues that NIMBYism, excessive financialization, poorly designed austerity, politicized direct government provision of services, loss of export markets, and energy scarcity have collectively dragged down UK growth, and the US risks repeating these mistakes if it ignores the lessons.
•UK GDP per capita (PPP) is roughly equal to Mississippi's (~$56,000), but France and Germany have significantly higher incomes despite similar safety and health outcomes.
•Brexit reduced UK GDP by 6-8% by end of 2025, with investment down 12-13% and productivity down 3-4% (Bloom et al. 2025).
•The UK's NHS has a backlog of 6 million patients; austerity forced capital budget cannibalization, leading to crumbling infrastructure and reports of scurvy and rickets.
•HS2 high-speed rail costs tripled to over £100 billion, making it the most expensive rail line in the world; key sections were cancelled.
•UK housing costs per square foot are among the highest in Europe; France has almost 50% more homes despite similar population.
•Financial services account for ~12% of UK economic output (vs ~7% in US), concentrating wealth in London and making the economy vulnerable to sector shocks.
•UK energy costs are high due to rapid coal phase-out and expensive offshore wind; electricity generation per capita has fallen well below that of the US and other rich countries.
•Middle-income Brits are 20% poorer than German peers and 9% poorer than French peers; low-income households are 27% poorer.