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14:11
Sep 04
Sep 04
SILJ FLIP
JNUG 1ST
▾
HIGH
The position remains active and profitable relative to the last entry, with stop-loss levels intact, indicating no reason to exit or panic.
"SILJ AND JNUG NOT EVEN STOPPED OUT AND BOTH ABOVE ANY LAST BUY PRICE WHAT IS THE ISSUE?"
SILJ LONG
JNUG LONG
short-term
HIGH
12:37
Sep 04
Sep 04
GOLD
SILVER
▾
MED
The author explicitly recommends buying and holding gold, as stated directly in the publication's title.
"BUY GOLD AND SILVER DONT SELL"
GOLD LONG
unspecified
The author explicitly recommends buying and holding silver, as stated directly in the publication's title.
"BUY GOLD AND SILVER DONT SELL"
SILVER LONG
unspecified
MED
11:11
Sep 04
Sep 04
10:18
Sep 04
Sep 04
09:12
Sep 04
Sep 04
LULU
▾
The author catalogs concrete deterioration at LULU — negative China/US growth, -9% global comps, -20% leggings, mid-single-digit operating margin guidance, and a tariff-inflated beat — suggesting intrinsic value has fallen. This is limiting data rather than an explicit short call.
Risk: The warning contains no explicit position, valuation target, or timeframe; if market expectations have already adjusted, the downside may be limited.
LULU WATCH
08:10
Sep 04
Sep 04
AAOI
COHR
LITE
AEHR
CRDO
▾
MED
The author is explicitly monitoring AAOI's remaining At-The-Market (ATM) equity capacity, highlighting the ongoing risk of shareholder dilution as the company burns cash to fund expansion.
"What I Track: 30-year yield · AAOI remaining ATM capacity · FCF conversion at the major optical names"
AAOI WATCH
short-term
The author is tracking Coherent's initial revenue recognition from Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) and Optical Circuit Switches (OCS) as primary catalysts for the next phase of optical deployment.
"What I Track: OCS revenue recognition · Coherent’s first CPO revenue · first ELS shipment"
COHR WATCH
medium-term
Author highlights Lumentum as a core NVIDIA partner for External Light Sources (ELS) and notes the company is guiding to its first $100M-plus quarter in fiscal Q1 for Optical Circuit Switches (OCS).
Risk: Deployment of scale-up links and Lumentum's 6-inch InP capacity are slated for 2028, meaning revenue realization is heavily back-weighted and vulnerable to rate-driven multiple compression.
LITE WATCH
Author notes that yield and test are becoming the real bottleneck for in-package optics, pointing out that Aehr secured repeat orders from its lead Silicon Photonics (SiPh) customer and added a second major SiPh customer in 2026.
Risk: The dollar pool for optical testing is currently small and lacks standardized processes, making the revenue stream lumpy.
AEHR WATCH
Author points out Credo's GAAP gross margin contraction and notes that the architectural shift toward Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) and Linear Drive Pluggable Optics (LPO) will shrink merchant DSP content per port.
Risk: Credo's specific reliability features (like ZeroFlap) could maintain a niche market share if DSP-less architectures suffer from high link-drop rates during massive training jobs.
CRDO WATCH
Author states that scale-across links between data centers are driving demand for coherent optics, citing Ciena's $8.5B backlog and Hyper-Rail as the first concrete orders in this flow.
Risk: Telecom and broader data center interconnect (DCI) spending can be cyclical and subject to hyperscaler capital expenditure lumpiness.
CIEN WATCH
Author notes Corning supplies fiber and connectors for NVIDIA's ecosystem and validates their 'form-factor-agnostic' claim as a legitimate fiber-count calculation benefiting from rack-to-rack scale-up.
Risk: Corning was the only optical name whose next-quarter guidance came in below consensus during the August earnings season.
GLW WATCH
Author highlights that Fabrinet lost datacom volume at its largest customer and categorizes front-panel module assembly as a structural 'loser' in the shift toward in-package optics.
Risk: Fabrinet is still listed as handling system assembly for NVIDIA's broader silicon photonics ecosystem, which could offset front-panel module losses.
FN WATCH
MED
05:26
Sep 04
Sep 04
23:34
Sep 03
Sep 03
LULU 1ST
▾
MED
The stock is currently the largest position in the portfolio but is actively moving against the author, causing significant unrealized losses and acting as a 'trickster'.
"Today, lululemon (LULU) is the trickster in my portfolio. This time the trickster is my largest position,, and it does seem determined to take me where mermaids fear to tread."
LULU LONG
medium-term
MED
23:09
Sep 03
Sep 03
CIEN 1ST
AMZN
META
T
▾
HIGH
Ciena is the #1 pure-play optical systems provider with a massive $10B backlog and 82% YoY cloud growth. The recent 11% post-earnings selloff to a 6-month low despite a record quarter creates an asymmetrical buying opportunity.
"We’ve talked about Ciena in the past, and it’s one of our best performing positions in our portfolio on AutoPilot called “Photonics Is Next”, because we discovered it as early as March, at the NVIDIA GTC."
CIEN LONG
long-term
The author notes via Needham that Amazon is reportedly switching its own transponder platform to Ciena silicon, indicating significant ongoing upgrades to its data center interconnect infrastructure.
Risk: Transitioning core optical hardware carries execution and integration risks for hyperscale data center operations.
AMZN WATCH
Meta is explicitly named as a customer for Ciena's DCOM (management system inside data centers) product since Q2 FY2026, highlighting their aggressive investments in scale-across optical networks.
Risk: High capital expenditure requirements for optical network buildouts could pressure near-term free cash flow margins.
META WATCH
The article highlights that telecom operators like AT&T are upgrading their infrastructure after years of underinvestment, specifically building managed optical fiber networks (MOFN) for hyperscalers.
Risk: Telecom capex cycles are notoriously cyclical and highly sensitive to interest rates and heavy debt loads.
T WATCH
HIGH
22:33
Sep 03
Sep 03
CIEN
▾
The article quantifies multiple validating demand signals: backlog above $10B projected, Q3 book-to-bill strongly above 1, WaveLogic 6 Extreme is still the only 1.6T modem, and RLS holds roughly 70% market share, all pointing to Ciena as a primary beneficiary of AI WAN expansion.
Risk: Stock fell ~10% post-earnings despite positive commentary, suggesting investors may be focused on component shortages, near-term supply constraints, or valuation; competitive 1.6T optics could erode Ciena's current product exclusivity over time.
CIEN WATCH
16:16
Sep 03
Sep 03
JPY
▾
The author opens by saying 'Something tells me we are witnessing a bottoming process unfold in the Japanese yen' and draws a direct parallel to the 2012 USD/JPY bottom at 76; if the analogy holds, yen appreciation versus the dollar is the logical market implication.
Risk: The visible article does not specify today's catalyst; the 2012 reversal required repeated BoJ intervention and a major Abenomics/GPIF flow shift, so the analogy could fail without a comparable policy trigger.
JPY WATCH
15:06
Sep 03
Sep 03
GLD
TLT
▾
The article repeatedly ties central-bank gold buying, repatriation trends, and rising COMEX delivery notices to a loss of confidence in U.S.-centric financial assets; GLD is the standard liquid proxy for the bullish gold thesis it lays out.
Risk: Central-bank demand is physical and official-flow-driven, so paper gold ETFs can lag if dollar reserve dominance persists and real yields stay high.
GLD WATCH
The article argues that $40 trillion U.S. debt plus higher interest expense, larger deficits, more Treasury supply, and higher required yields forms a negative feedback loop for long-duration Treasuries unless the Fed resorts to yield-curve control.
Risk: If the Fed does implement yield-curve control or aggressive QE, nominal long-duration Treasuries could rally short-term, but with significant currency/inflation risk.
TLT WATCH
13:15
Sep 03
Sep 03
12:45
Sep 03
Sep 03
IQE
LITE
SIVE
AAOI
MOD
▾
HIGH
Author identifies IQE as the critical 'Layer 1' of the AI interconnect stack, providing the essential Indium phosphide epitaxy material.
Risk: Niche material provider subject to broader semiconductor cycle risks and supply chain shifts.
IQE WATCH
Highlighted as the 'scaled incumbent Nvidia chose to fund' for Layer 2 high-power lasers and light sources needed for CPO and external-laser architectures.
Risk: Competition from other laser manufacturers and potential shifts in optical architectures.
LITE WATCH
Named alongside LITE as a key player in Layer 2 (light sources), providing the chips that CPO and external-laser architectures actually need.
Risk: Smaller scale compared to incumbents like Lumentum, carrying higher execution risk.
SIVE WATCH
Identified as Layer 3 of the AI interconnect stack, providing U.S.-flagged manufacturing volume for 800G and 1.6T components that hyperscalers require.
Risk: Highly competitive optical transceiver market dominated by massive Asian manufacturers like Innolight.
AAOI WATCH
Highlighted as Layer 4 of the AI stack, providing critical heat rejection infrastructure (Cold plate to CDU to facility loop).
Risk: Increasing competition in the liquid cooling and thermal management space from players like Vertiv and Trane.
MOD WATCH
The market mispriced CRDO as a single-customer cable vendor and punished a temporary GAAP margin dip, ignoring its evolution into a critical AI interconnect reliability platform with >$600M in guided optical revenue and 115% YoY growth.
"I initiated a core long at an average of ~$169, sized at ~4.3% of the Main 10x book."
CRDO LONG
long-term
HIGH
10:47
Sep 03
Sep 03
09:55
Sep 03
Sep 03
EH
TAN
URA
BYDDY
▾
The author explicitly names EHang's pilotless VTOL craft but dismisses it as a 'niche type of transportation,' arguing that mass market demand for flying cars is fundamentally limited by the rarity of 150-500 mile trips and the lack of a broad-based value proposition.
Risk: If autonomous VTOL networks achieve regulatory approval and scale faster than expected, lowering per-mile costs to compete with ground transport, EHang could see significant upside.
EH WATCH
The author highlights that solar has 'won the technological race' with stupendous cost declines, noting that even nuclear-friendly China is building solar far faster than nuclear because intermittency issues have been solved by cheap batteries.
Risk: Geopolitical tariffs on Chinese solar components or changes in renewable subsidies could impact global solar deployment rates.
TAN WATCH
The author challenges the economic viability of a nuclear renaissance, pointing out that France's nuclear-heavy grid yields expensive electricity (28 cents/kWh) and that reactor costs in China haven't fallen since 2010, making it uncompetitive with solar.
Risk: Rising baseline power demand from AI datacenters could force hyperscalers to fund nuclear deployments regardless of the higher per-kWh cost.
URA WATCH
The author praises the electric vehicle revolution, specifically noting that Chinese engineers have 'created electric cars so cheap and high-quality that they’re conquering the global auto market.'
Risk: Western protectionist policies and 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs could severely limit their total addressable market outside of domestic and emerging economies.
BYDDY WATCH
05:48
Sep 03
Sep 03
04:19
Sep 03
Sep 03
03:50
Sep 03
Sep 03
AVGO
AAOI
LITE
SMTC
CRDO
▾
MED
Broadcom's FY28 AI revenue target of $230B implies roughly $30 of FY28 EPS, making the stock look highly attractive at around 12x FY28 earnings if they execute against their secured supply forecasts.
"I don’t have a position yet but I am considering DCA into it. I need to sit down and do a big deep dive into AVGO like I did for MRVL a couple weeks ago."
AVGO WATCH
long-term
The author notes AAOI benefits from both the 800G/1.6T transceiver overlap and the severe laser shortage because they fabricate a significant amount of their own InP lasers.
Risk: Broadcom and other competitors are aggressively tripling capacity, which could eventually alleviate shortage pricing and compress margins when new supply comes online.
AAOI WATCH
Broadcom's commentary that EML and CW laser demand is 'far surpassing supply' provides strong validation for LITE's tight supply environment and pricing power.
Risk: Industry-wide capacity expansions will eventually qualify and come online, meaning today's shortage pricing will not last forever.
LITE WATCH
SMTC benefits from the entire coexistence roadmap, having optical exposure through drivers/TIAs/HieFo, as well as massive copper exposure which Broadcom confirmed will continue to scale.
Risk: Copper's viability at higher speeds remains physically constrained by distance, eventually forcing a harder transition to optics for larger scale-up clusters.
SMTC WATCH
Broadcom's investments in stretching copper signals via AECs and retimers confirms that copper will survive into the 200G per lane generation, directly validating CRDO's copper exposure.
Risk: The transition to NPO/CPO for longer rack distances could cap the total addressable market for copper-based AECs over time.
CRDO WATCH
The author explicitly calls out VECO as an upstream beneficiary selling equipment into the massive industry-wide factory capacity ramp for EML, CW, and VCSEL lasers.
Risk: Capital expenditure cycles in semiconductor equipment can be highly cyclical and dependent on sustained downstream hyperscaler demand.
VECO WATCH
Broadcom's Tomahawk Ultra Ethernet switch is seeing stronger-than-expected uptake in the scale-up network, allowing hyperscalers to build custom accelerators around Ethernet rather than proprietary fabrics like NVLink.
Risk: NVIDIA's ecosystem remains deeply entrenched, and Ethernet's latency/bandwidth capabilities may still lag NVLink for the most demanding frontier model training clusters.
NVDA WATCH
MED
01:43
Sep 03
Sep 03
KCN
▾
The author argues the pending Nueva Esperanza resource/reserve update and resumption of drilling could 'materially change valuation' and that investors often re-rate companies when dormant projects restart drilling, especially in silver-bullish markets.
Risk: The catalysts are event-driven and not guaranteed; drilling may fail to expand reserves, and any JV or spin-out is only hinted at rather than committed.
KCN WATCH
00:24
Sep 03
Sep 03
GOOGL
MU
VRT
▾
The article presents concrete evidence of Google's custom TPU hardware advance and says customers are already "training their largest frontier models on tens of Ironwood super pods," supporting Google Cloud/Alphabet's AI infrastructure credibility.
Risk: TPU hardware success is not the same as Alphabet profitability; AI capex intensity and cloud competition could pressure returns.
GOOGL WATCH
Google's TPU 8i "increased the HBM capacity and also the bandwidth" and the 8t remains on HBM3E, showing continued large-scale HBM procurement for AI accelerators — a positive read-through to HBM suppliers such as Micron.
Risk: Memory/HBM pricing cycles, customer concentration, and the possibility Google moves to HBM4 in later generations.
MU WATCH
The article quotes Google saying "we've been deploying liquid cooling for almost a decade now" and links it to HBM reliability and Arrhenius failure-rate benefits, reinforcing the AI data-center liquid-cooling demand narrative that benefits Vertiv.
Risk: No named supplier relationship with Google; hyperscaler self-managed cooling or an AI data-center capex slowdown could limit the benefit.
VRT WATCH
14:30
Sep 02
Sep 02
GLD
SLV
▾
The author explicitly states gold has reached its target price but advocates for continued momentum ('giddy up'), implying further upside for gold proxies.
Risk: Gold could face technical resistance and retrace after hitting initial target prices.
GLD WATCH
Silver is noted alongside gold as hitting its target price with expectations of continued upward movement, benefiting silver tracking ETFs.
Risk: Silver is historically highly volatile and prone to sharp pullbacks at major technical resistance levels.
SLV WATCH
12:01
Sep 02
Sep 02
11:09
Sep 02
Sep 02
GLD
TLT
▾
The article notes gold touched an intraday high near $4,612 and that investors are hedging sticky inflation and Fed uncertainty by continuing to hold and buy gold, an asset that has weathered inflation for decades.
Risk: Gold could correct sharply if Warsh's 2% inflation commitment is backed by credible tightening or if real yields rise aggressively.
GLD WATCH
The article reports long-end yields broke decisively higher, foreign appetite for US debt is falling, and yield-curve steepening makes Treasury issuance harder — all pressure on longer-duration Treasuries.
Risk: The article also argues the Fed cannot raise rates and will likely need to cut, which could ultimately support duration if the Fed pivots to easing.
TLT WATCH
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