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17:41
May 29
May 29
NVDA
GOOGL
TSM
▾
The article explicitly contrasts 'Apollo’s $38 billion debt raise for Google’s TPUs (not NVIDIA’s GPUs) for Anthropic,' signaling that a major capital allocation in AI infrastructure is bypassing NVIDIA's GPU platform. This directly challenges NVIDIA's narrative of irreplaceable dominance in AI training/inference.
Risk: NVIDIA's data-center revenue still dominates; one deal does not prove a trend, but the scale ($38B) is material and the author's framing implies this is a leading indicator.
NVDA WATCH
The debt raise funds Google's TPUs, validating Google's custom silicon strategy as a credible alternative to NVIDIA. This reinforces Google's position in the AI hardware race and could lead to increased TPU adoption by other large customers.
Risk: TPU revenue is embedded in Google's overall business and not separately disclosed; the debt raise is for Anthropic's exclusive use, not a broad commercial win.
GOOGL WATCH
Google's TPUs are manufactured by TSMC. A $38 billion commitment to TPU hardware directly translates to increased wafer starts and advanced packaging demand at TSMC, likely accelerating TSMC's revenue from custom AI chips.
Risk: TSMC's capacity is already tight; the incremental demand may require allocation from other customers, and pricing power could be offset by long-term contracts.
TSM WATCH
05:43
May 29
May 29
SOXX 1ST
QQQ 1ST
ADBE
▾
HIGH
Author increased bearish bet on semiconductors by rolling puts on the SOXX ETF, adding capital at risk.
"I rolled my SOXX and QQQ puts at a debit, increasing my capital at risk in both cases."
SOXX SHORT
medium-term
Author increased bearish bet on large-cap tech by rolling puts on the QQQ ETF, adding capital at risk.
"I rolled my SOXX and QQQ puts at a debit, increasing my capital at risk in both cases."
QQQ SHORT
medium-term
Author highlights Adobe's 65% price decline, below-intrinsic valuation at 0.91x IV15, and strong 45% QoQ growth in Firefly Foundry generative credit usage — suggesting potential upside if the product momentum and valuation re-rate.
Risk: Continued macro headwinds for high-growth software stocks; Firefly monetization may take longer than expected.
ADBE WATCH
HIGH
00:25
May 23
May 23
19:13
May 22
May 22
16:00
May 07
May 07
ADSK 1ST
CRM 1ST
▾
HIGH
The author has closed a previously held long position in ADSK, taking a small profit. This indicates they are no longer holding the stock.
"Today I sold my positions in CRM and ADSK at small profits."
ADSK AVOID
short-term
The author has closed a previously held long position in CRM, taking a small profit. This indicates they are no longer holding the stock.
"Today I sold my positions in CRM and ADSK at small profits."
CRM AVOID
short-term
HIGH
15:09
Apr 10
Apr 10
PLTR 1ST
▾
HIGH
The author is maintaining a short position in Palantir, held via puts, which was established in the prior fall based on a thesis detailed in previous articles.
"As you know, I have been short Palantir since the fall, through puts as expressed in two articles: Palantir's New Clothes and Palantir: An Accounting."
PLTR SHORT
medium-term
HIGH
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