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04:24
Apr 16
@glbeaty
@Nick_from_Texas @compound248 @buccocapital If the goal is not to make the richest man in the world refuse to do any future interviews with …
04:16
Apr 16
@glbeaty
@TryAInvest @buccocapital "...you're making two different statements. One is that ... our chips are going to be way better ... Another is th…
23:20
Apr 15
@glbeaty
@compound248 @buccocapital That's just framing isn't it? Dwarkesh can call bullshit without triggering someone like Musk's extreme in/out-g…
21:56
Apr 15
@glbeaty
@buccocapital Dwarkesh is the best podcaster for this reason, and it's not even close. Somehow he can put on a big smile and call Elon Musk …
20:54
Apr 15
@glbeaty
@cremieuxrecueil I think this massively understates the case. Tourism investment would pour into the country if it had a stable capitalist e…
15:27
Apr 15
@glbeaty
@cremieuxrecueil A fund going all-in for nearly any reason is a bad sign. It sounds like they knew what they were doing and didn't get lucky…
20:54
Apr 14
@glbeaty
@robinhanson @StefanFSchubert I'm going to guess a combination of moving goalposts and unreliable data. https://t.co/dwPzz2qPk0
20:09
Apr 14
@glbeaty
@NJ_Capital_ @SowingAlphaSeed @shirefindsvalue @Fierce__beast Is there a thesis spreading on social media? Is it plausible? Did it get more …
18:26
Apr 14
@glbeaty
@SowingAlphaSeed @shirefindsvalue @Fierce__beast If the price is moving with me, it's the market slowly realizing my thesis is correct. If …
15:55
Apr 14
@glbeaty
@stonk_surfer @kelanfar Fortunately this hypothesis has been shown to be false: https://t.co/7BQLmQhf1a
05:27
Apr 14
@glbeaty
@jacksonhinklle "This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Ira…
23:16
Apr 12
@glbeaty
Nevermind! These optics are a lot better, and don't play into Iran's narrative that the U.S. is at fault here. Though this might be more bu…
USO
MED
22:43
Apr 12
@glbeaty
We aren't going to be interdicting PRC-flagged, or likely any, ships that already paid the toll, but Trump has many ways to escalate here. …
06:11
Apr 12
@glbeaty
And here's the evidence. https://t.co/aPKdDIwTwi
05:13
Apr 12
@glbeaty
@TheBenSchmark Yeah, unfortunately microbiology might be the most computationally intractable problem that exists. Maybe AI will pull a rabb…
04:14
Apr 12
@glbeaty
@TheBenSchmark What can AI do to help cure T1D?
01:08
Apr 11
@glbeaty
@BenTzionMacales https://t.co/7HZ07Flf4D
00:53
Apr 11
@glbeaty
The market (especially futures) is saying Trump will take a shitty deal. I think it's confusing his desire to get out of the bluff to end Ir…
00:41
Apr 11
@glbeaty
@RichardHanania No one cared about the Bab al-Mandeb much, except traders like me who were long $ZIM. We didn't try nearly as hard there as …
00:29
Apr 11
@glbeaty
@orrdavid Iran is very different from Nazi Germany (& especially Imperial Japan) in that only a minority of its population is crazy. Th…
00:21
Apr 11
@glbeaty
@orrdavid @QuipusCapital Not impossible, but they have anti-ship missiles specifically made for this. If we blow those all up Russia happily…
20:55
Apr 09
@glbeaty
https://t.co/jY1E5OxnLT https://t.co/HxHYdUalb8
19:31
Apr 09
@glbeaty
Peace holding means: -Israel & Hezbollah stop fighting -Bibi's corruption trial resumes -The IRGC stops shooting & lets ships thru …
04:23
Apr 09
@glbeaty
Wars happen because the belligerents disagree on the outcome. https://t.co/vWBTUaH1Zz
20:06
Apr 08
@glbeaty
What happens now that the ceasefire was accepted? Everything I can find, including Claude doing Farsi-language searches, suggests the IRGC …
21:27
Apr 07
@glbeaty
And yet these companies are barely even down. Gotta love markets. https://t.co/iOYEM8XgJ7
20:21
Apr 07
@glbeaty
Is it in the interest of both parties to agree to an x-week extension that opens Hormuz? This is a concession, so Trump doesn't look like h…
16:55
Apr 07
@glbeaty
My Pentagon Taco Tracker™ is bullish. https://t.co/aJ6siet8PR
15:29
Apr 07
@glbeaty
It's worth noting the U.S. has graphite bombs which are designed to take down electrical grids in manners that are relatively quick and easy…
15:20
Apr 07
@glbeaty
Some "realists" think this behavior is fine, because the international order was only ever physical might. This is dangerously autistic. Op…
20:41
Apr 06
@glbeaty
If we get a 🌮 leaving the toll booth in place, oil & oil equities will drop. Cartels have cheaters. A toll booth is a better tool &…
20:58
Apr 03
@glbeaty
Long equities, long a rolling oil ETF (like $BNO) seems like a no-brainer if you don't want to bet on unpredictable war outcomes. If oil st…
BNO
MED
20:39
Apr 03
@glbeaty
I was short $WATT for maybe years in my PA. Too small for me to do much with now (no position), but the turnaround story (wirelessly powerin…
WATT
MED
19:59
Apr 03
@glbeaty
Just in case anyone thinks politicians are smart: Ukraine's extensive experience in drone warfare is just now getting attention from Western…
03:23
Apr 01
@glbeaty
Another risk: Trump is led to believe Hormuz can be opened at a low enough cost, and goes for it. I don't think it can be, especially if Ru…
20:14
Mar 31
@glbeaty
What next? The GCC won't put up with tolls forever. More bypass pipelines? If the U.S. abandons its GCC security guarantees they'd likely t…
20:14
Mar 31
@glbeaty
The Aya-Toll-Booth is a strong incentive for Iran to increase shipping traffic. They need to set the toll just under what would piss off the…
20:14
Mar 31
@glbeaty
So the U.S. can't open Hormuz & Iran is unable to harm the U.S. Trump should declare victory, leave, & Iran will let shipping resume…
20:14
Mar 31
@glbeaty
Losing the Isfahan missile base (both storage & production) was a big blow. The U.S. demonstrated it could destroy, not just bury, Iran…
20:14
Mar 31
@glbeaty
Moreover, Russia has every incentive to supply Iran with whatever they need to keep the strait closed. They believe they're at war with the …
20:14
Mar 31
@glbeaty
Latest war thoughts: Taking or escorting-through Hormuz likely loops like so: Iran fires a missile, a Burke shoots it down, combat air pat…
00:28
Mar 31
@glbeaty
I want to believe these two things are related. Though it's not encouraging this is the first footage we've seen of an Iranian missile city…
20:41
Mar 29
@glbeaty
An interesting framing. I'll add a caveat: this attention is too scarce. There are far too few extremely smart humans, & many of the sma…
06:06
Mar 27
@glbeaty
Maybe the FDA will ignore this class of drug, but have you see the HHS secretary? He's a gym bro, and looks familiar with pharma enhancement…
06:06
Mar 27
@glbeaty
Tell me you don't even lift without telling me? Weight is a poor metric. I'm BMI-"obese", yet people tell me they want my genes. Why? No on…
LLY NVO
18:07
Mar 26
@glbeaty
Social media, $SNAP, $RDDT, etc., is selling off after $META lost a teen harm (depression, anxiety) lawsuit. It's worth noting Crémieux beli…
SNAP RDDT META
13:18
Mar 24
@glbeaty
The war is important for commodities. For equities, it's noise. https://t.co/4KcQU6iPQb
12:44
Mar 24
@glbeaty
From a dashboard I had Claude Code make me. Seems like Iran's hit percentage has gone way up, along with toll-booth usage. I wonder if thei…
12:13
Mar 24
@glbeaty
Now that B-52s have switched from stand-off munitions to bombs (often bunker-busters), it'll be interesting to see if this keeps dropping. A…
06:52
Mar 23
@glbeaty
What I think isn't predictable: The timeline to degrade Iran's offense, most importantly shore-to-ship. We don't know how many missile base…