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· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Jukan expects Nvidia to scale back neocloud financing without Huang, and Gavin Baker warned tighter export policy will push China toward its own AI hardware; Cerebras beat and raised, Stock Market Nerd says prepayments will fund about 80% of Nebius's 2027 capex, and US commercial crude sits at its lowest seasonal level since 2014.
Themes on this desk
Nvidia and export policy
Gavin Baker argued tighter export rules will push Chinese labs onto domestic AI hardware, while Chamath said oversight at Nvidia would cede the US lead to foreign countries.
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Market Radar →Gavin Baker: tighter China export policy will push China toward its own AI hardware path
Baker argues China had zero chance of catching America in AI under the export strategy Huang supported, because its labs would have kept training on less powerful American GPUs. With China hawks likely getting their preferred policy, he says China will likely soon have a chance of catching up via an alternate, less power-efficient AI hardware path.
Well-meaning, patriotic China “Hawks” who are not AI/HW experts are putting American national security at risk.
Baker says China almost certainly would not have gone down that path if less powerful GPUs were still available in China and via Southeast Asian clouds.
Watch Final US export policy toward China-bound AI chips.
Source →Jukan expects a post-Huang Nvidia to scale back neocloud financing and acquire fewer startups
Jukan says that without Jensen Huang, Nvidia would likely start by scaling back its financial support for neocloud providers and acquiring fewer startups, and expects the company to become more bureaucratic.
Without Jensen Huang, Nvidia would likely start by scaling back its financial support for neocloud providers and acquiring fewer startups.
Financial support for neocloud providers is the first lever Jukan expects Nvidia to change.
Watch Any reduction in Nvidia's neocloud financing or startup acquisitions.
Source →Cerebras beat on core revenue, raised FY26 guidance to $940-960M and rose 15% after hours
Ren says Cerebras posted Q3 core revenue of $230.9M against about $215M expected, with cloud and services revenue up 265% to $141.9M, about two-thirds of the business, while hardware sales fell 29%. The FY26 core revenue guide rose to $940M-$960M against $887M expected.
$CBRS had a killer earnings! Up 15% AH.
Ren says RPO sits at $26.1B, roughly 27 times this year's guided revenue, and the CEO said he expects revenue to triple next year.
Watch Q4 core revenue against the $310M-$330M guide.
Source →US commercial crude stocks of 414.4M barrels are the lowest for the season since 2014, per EIA data
TheValueist reports commercial crude stocks rose 4.7M barrels on the week to 414.4M, the lowest seasonal level since 2014, while distillate stocks built 4.1M barrels, concentrated in PADD 3, and refinery utilization held at 95.2%.
EIA WEEKLY, THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 12, 2026 WEEK ENDING NOVEMBER 6, 2026 TAKEAWAYS • Nationwide commercial crude reached 414.4M bbl, the
Crude imports from Venezuela rose to 603K b/d, up 905% year over year, and PADD 2 utilization rose 4.0 points to 96.9%.
Watch Whether distillate stocks keep building.
Source →Prepayments will fund about 80% of Nebius's 2027 capex, leaving an $8.5B gap
Stock Market Nerd says about $34B of Nebius's planned $42.5B of 2027 capex will be funded from prepayments, leaving an $8.5B gap, with about $6B on the balance sheet after Q3 raises and expected Q4 cash burn.
80% of 2027 CapEx for $NBIS will be funded from prepayments. That's about $34B out of the planned $42.5B.
Stock Market Nerd expects more capital raises, while noting Nebius has more room to borrow against existing assets than competitors.
Watch Further Nebius capital raises to cover the 2027 funding gap.
Source →