Daily Alpha · Reddit
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
r/NVDA_Stock commenters split between trimming and buying after Huang's exit, and a Nebius post questioned the Q3 beat; the entries include a disclosed Coursera buy, a CoreWeave margin critique and a Charter short.
Themes on this desk
Nvidia holders split
One r/NVDA_Stock commenter is accelerating trims and expects $150-$170 sideways at best, while another bought in, citing upcoming quarterly reports.
Nebius beat questioned
A post argues Nebius's Q3 beat was undercut by nonrecurring revenue, power-delay-driven capacity slippage into 2027 and heavy 2027 capex.
Highest engagement
by score · day changeCoursera trades below net cash with a new 14% activist stake, says an author who bought 25,000 shares
The author argues Coursera trades below net cash with growing revenue and a new 14% activist stake as a catalyst, and discloses buying 25,000 shares at $3.84.
$COUR trading below cash, activist investor just revealed I have followed/owned COUR for some time, riding it from 6 to
The activist stake is the author's named catalyst for a stock trading below net cash.
Watch The activist investor's next steps at Coursera.
Source →CoreWeave's 62% adjusted EBITDA margin masks depreciation and interest, a post argues
The author argues CoreWeave's adjusted EBITDA margin masks GPU depreciation and interest costs that consume 75 cents of every revenue dollar.
CoreWeave presents: How to lose $709 million on a 62% adjusted EBITDA margin CoreWeave reported a 62% adjusted EBITDA margin
The author argues Nvidia's faster new racks will pressure rental pricing on older GPUs.
Watch Rental pricing on older GPUs.
Source →Zhongji Innolight looks cheap with orders booked through 2027, a post argues
The author argues Zhongji Innolight looks cheap because a feared US optical-module export ban may only target 2028-era technology, while orders are booked through 2027, and flags backlog reliability as a risk.
Why is Zhongji Innolight still so cheap with orders booked through 2027?
The thesis depends on the scope of any US optical-module export ban.
Watch Which technology generation a US optical-module export ban would cover.
Source →Build-A-Bear is undervalued with a crowded short, a post argues after PLCE's squeeze
The author argues Build-A-Bear is undervalued with strong fundamentals, a crowded short position and holiday and quarterly catalysts, setting fair value at $45-$50 versus about $28 today.
$PLCE is ripping. Could $BBW move too? PLCE’s short squeeze today has me looking at Build-A-Bear Workshop ($BBW).
PLCE's short squeeze prompted the author to look at Build-A-Bear.
Watch Build-A-Bear's holiday-quarter catalysts.
Source →European TTF gas rose 10% on cold-weather draws and tight storage, a post says
The author argues European gas prices are rising on cold-weather draws and tight storage, expects a winter supply crisis and a bidding war with Asia, and views Tenaz as undervalued because its hedges will eventually flip to a tailwind.
TTF +10% today and here are the current futures contracts.
The author expects Tenaz's hedges to eventually flip to a tailwind.
Watch European gas storage and TTF prices this winter.
Source →Most argued
by comments per upvoteAn author is short Charter, calling it a leveraged value trap
The author is short Charter, calling it a leveraged value trap facing subscriber losses and a $6.33B impairment.
There’s something weird going on with $CHTR pt 2 I’m back.
The author flags short-term squeeze risk from institutional holders.
Watch Charter's subscriber losses.
Source →A DCF initiation rates NXP a Hold on automotive valuation while taking a small starter long
The author says NXP is highly priced on automotive with robotics upside the model does not price in, rates the stock Hold and discloses a small starter long position with a plan to add on weakness toward the Base case.
NXP Semiconductors ($NXPI): highly priced on automotive, with robotics upside the model does not price in We initiated coverage of
Robotics upside is the part the author's model does not price in.
Watch NXP weakness toward the author's Base case.
Source →