Daily Alpha · Reddit
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Reddit posters argued Nvidia's scandal could leave it distracted while AMD pushes ahead, flagged data-center permitting risk and shared value cases on Macy's, 91APP and CAVA.
Themes on this desk
Nvidia distraction, AMD share
r/AMD_Stock commenters argue Nvidia will be distracted by Huang's scandal, raising its odds of misstepping while AMD catches its stride.
Data-center permitting
A r/investing post argues announced AI data-center capacity is not real until it clears local politics and permitting, citing a $10 billion Michigan project that collapsed in 13 days.
Highest engagement
by score · day changeA former semiconductor short says they put $700k into NVDA over recent days
After shorting semiconductors all year, the author rotated back into long tech with $700k in NVDA, targeting about 50% over about 60 months.
It’s been a good year So after spending the year shorting the student loan market, silver, and semi conductors.Source →
A new SPY tail hedge: three March 2027 $650 puts bought at $6.05
The author discloses three SPY $650 puts expiring March 2027, bought at $6.05, to protect against a major crash.
Tail Hedge idea My new SPY tail hedge through March 2027 Position: 3 × SPY $650 puts Expiration:Source →
Macy's owned urban real estate plus cash exceeds its market cap by over 60%, one poster argues
The author values Macy's owned urban real estate plus cash, net of debt and lease liabilities, at more than 60% above the current market cap.
Macys (M) as an asset play $1.4 billion in cash Long term debt: $2.433 billion Long term lease liabilities:Source →
91APP trades at 9x earnings with 44% of its market cap in net cash, per a value post
The author argues net cash and about 5x ex-cash cash flow make the NT$42 share price too cheap, but does not yet own shares and is soliciting pushback.
91APP: Taiwanese retail software at 9x earnings, with 44% of the market cap in net cash *I'm sharing this becauseSource →
A relative valuation puts a CAVA entry for 15% annual returns at about $50 or lower
The author compares CAVA's price-to-sales with Chipotle's 2006-2015 average and concludes about $50 or lower is needed for a 15% annual return through 2030, flagging weaker margins than Chipotle.
Relative Valuation #1 with CAVA inc.Source →
Most argued
by comments per upvoteA poster is bullish on USA Rare Earth at about a 40% discount to the US government's price
After a post-earnings oversell, the author cites a roughly 40% discount to the price the US government paid and plans to hold for a target near $30.
My 4th reddit pick. USAR - After calling MCD at $230, NTDOY at $11, and IBRX at $7 (it wentSource →
Infineon produced working silicon carbide power chips on 300-mm wafers with existing equipment
Infineon reports functional silicon carbide power devices on 300-mm wafers using existing silicon equipment, but no commercial schedule has been announced.
Infineon produces working silicon carbide power chips on 300-mm wafers using existing factory equipment Infineon says it has manufactured functionalSource →