Daily Alpha · X
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Gavin Baker argued China is blocking Nvidia GPUs, Oppenheimer's AMD upgrade carried a $600 target, and Hims & Hers guided Q4 revenue to $885M against $955M expected.
Themes on this desk
Megaspeed probe
Per The New York Times, relayed by @DeItaone, a Commerce Department probe of suspected Nvidia chip smuggling to China was halted and transferred to the Justice Department after Nvidia's legal team contacted investigators.
Huang exit odds
@DeItaone reported that Huang dropped off Anthropic and ElevenLabs event lineups and that prediction markets price a 44% chance he leaves Nvidia before 2028.
Ticker heat
?
Top voices by smart followers and alpha score
Market Radar →Gavin Baker says China, not just Washington, has been blocking Nvidia GPUs since summer 2025
Baker cites Beijing pressuring tech giants to stop buying the H20, ordering a stop to RTX Pro 6000D purchases, barring foreign AI chips from new state-funded data centers, and a Reuters report that roughly 600,000 H200s sit in Hong Kong because Beijing won't approve large-scale imports.
Something that merits more discussion amongst those who believe it was a mistake by both the Biden and Trump administrations
Baker argues this undercuts the view that allowing exports of less powerful GPUs advantaged China.
Watch Beijing approval of large-scale H200 imports.
Source →Oppenheimer upgraded AMD to Outperform with a $600 price target
Oppenheimer expects AMD's data-center revenue to grow 135% in 2027 and reach 85% of total revenue, with AI GPU sales surpassing server CPU sales even as CPU revenue more than doubles.
Oppenheimer just upgraded $AMD to Outperform with a $600 price target. Their expectations for 2027 are pretty incredible:
These analyst projections set a 2027 bar for AMD's data-center business.
Watch AMD's 2027 data-center revenue growth against the 135% forecast.
Source →Anthropic's S-1 shows revenue per compute dollar rose from $0.40 to $1.72
KraneShares says the ratio of revenue to compute and infrastructure expense rose from $0.40 in Q1 2025 to $1.72 in Q3 2026, a 4.3x improvement, peaking at $2.08 in Q2 2026.
In Q1 2025, $ANT generated just $0.40 in revenue for every $1 spent on compute.
KraneShares argues compute efficiency is becoming just as important as revenue growth for AI companies.
Watch Whether the ratio returns toward its Q2 2026 peak of $2.08.
Source →Hims & Hers missed Q3 estimates and guided Q4 revenue to $885M versus $955M expected
Revenue was $890M versus $893M estimated, EPS was -$0.14 versus $0.06, gross margin was 57% versus 65%, and subscribers were 2.79M, up 13% year over year.
$HIMS Q3 EARNINGS • Revenue $890M vs Est. $893M • EPS ($0.14) vs Est. $0.06 • EBITDA $82M vs Est.
Q4 EBITDA guidance of $80M sits below the $105M estimate.
Watch Q4 revenue against the $885M guide.
Source →$ZETA Q3 EARNINGS • Revenue $493M vs Est.
$471M • EPS $0.14 vs Est. $0.05 • EBITDA $121M vs Est. $116M • FCF $82M vs Est. $69M • Super-Scaled Customers: 212 (+18% YoY) FY26 Guidance • Revenue $1.86B vs Est. $1.82B • EBITDA $415M vs Est. $405M https://t.co/3MuPzdiCwc
$ZETA Q3 EARNINGS • Revenue $493M vs Est. $471M • EPS $0.14 vs Est. $0.05 • EBITDA $121M vs Est.Source →