Daily Alpha · X
· Midday Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
TheValueist says Sandisk, Lumentum and Marvell are down about 50% in a month, while @liwei_twcapital puts the SOX at 13.7 times forward earnings.
Themes on this desk
Nvidia ratings split
Aletheia Capital downgraded Nvidia to Hold and withdrew its $340 target, while Goldman Sachs reiterated Buy with a $300 target.
Google TPUs
Alphabet is launching TPU 8tx and 8i Max; Google's TPUs reportedly cost around 30% less than Nvidia GPUs.
Ticker heat
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Top voices by smart followers and alpha score
Market Radar →I did not expect everything in the AI trade from $LITE to $NBIS to rally today Off the “honeypot catalyst”?
https://t.co/wGnMXBj9bH Quoting @aleabitoreddit: Every AI name in Taiwan from Mediatek to Winbond looks like its limit up. TAIEX: +4.94%, its 2nd largest daily gain in history. I guess the market is impressed by $NVDA’s Jensen Huang vitality at his age? https://t.co/brvV79PfKl
I did not expect everything in the AI trade from $LITE to $NBIS to rally today Off the “honeypot catalyst”?Source →
Aframax rates from the US Gulf to the UK collapsed to $94/mt from a $192 high
@burggrabenh says last week removed a lot of air from tanker freight rates, calling much of the high rates a textbook commodity overshoot, and adds that WTI is still uncompetitive delivering into Europe at these Aframax rates, per @SpartaCommo's arb radar.
And to be clear: at these Aframax rates, WTI is still uncompetitive delivering into Europe acc to @SpartaCommo' arb radar.
WTI remains uncompetitive into Europe even at the lower freight rates.
Watch Whether Aframax rates fall far enough to open the WTI arbitrage into Europe.
Source →AI hardware fell harder than pre-IPO lab marks over the past month, per TheValueist
TheValueist says Sandisk, Lumentum and Marvell are down about 50% one month into the selloff, Micron 33% and Nvidia 19%, while Anthropic is down 23% in its own perpetual market and OpenAI 20%.
https://t.co/itT8mMjpp3 THE LABS VS THE HARDWARE: THE LABS ARE HOLDING UP BETTER The hardware is mixed on the day.
The open question into the Anthropic IPO is whether the models keep getting paid for or the hardware catches the bid instead.
Watch Anthropic IPO pricing, targeted for November 24.
Source →Daniel Koss still sees $900+ per share for Nebius as plausible in 2027
Koss cites latest known ARR of about $3 billion and a base case of $42.6 billion by end-2027, roughly 14 times, and says the target assumes a significantly shrinking ARR multiple.
I still see $900+ per share for $NBIS as plausible in 2027.
Koss argues the market is too skeptical about bringing power online, holding pricing and financing the build-out.
Watch Short-term delays around Vineland, which Koss calls very possible.
Source →The SOX traded at 13.7 times forward earnings on November 6, roughly half its 2002-bottom multiple
@liwei_twcapital compares the SOX's 13.7 times forward earnings with the 25.5-28.4 times observed near the 2002 dot-com bottom; if semiconductor companies earn 20% less than forecast, the P/E would rise to 17.1 times, close to its 2011-2023 average.
Yes, there’s a bubble in AI. But what should semiconductor stocks be worth after it bursts? On Nov.
The author notes major suppliers are still growing profits and guiding for higher revenue.
Watch Semiconductor earnings versus the 20%-below-forecast scenario.
Source →