Daily Alpha · Reddit
· Midday Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Reddit posts covered tanker ton-miles, aluminium smelter power, a Chegg position increase and an SMCI earnings model.
Themes on this desk
Nvidia-to-AMD rotation
A r/StockMarket author says Nvidia will be dead money until the investigation is over and expects AMD to benefit; a r/AMD_Stock poster says the 'sell Nvidia buy AMD' narrative may finally start.
Highest engagement
by score · day changeTon-mile demand from Asian oil import diversification is tightening tanker supply
The author argues rising ton-mile demand from Asian oil import diversification tightens effective tanker supply, noting oil consumption has been roughly flat while freight rates have multiplied.
Ton-mile demand is the commodity nobody prices directly Oil consumption has been roughly flat. Freight rates have multiplied.
The author favors fee-layer company Heidmar as leveraged exposure.
Source →Power scarcity favors existing aluminium smelters with secured cheap electricity
The author argues power scarcity and China's capacity cap make existing smelters with secured cheap electricity relatively better placed than proposed capacity.
Aluminium Supply Faces Growing Competition for Power Google plans to invest $15 billion in Malaysia over 2027 and 2028, with
The author cautions this does not automatically make producers attractive stocks.
Source →An r/investing author increased a Chegg position to roughly 110,000 shares
The author presents Chegg as a deeply undervalued AI data-training and education platform and calls it their largest holding.
Chegg - Why this secret Ai company is my largest holding What if I told you Chegg, a company thatSource →
Nvidia is flat for 2026, but overnight-only holding would be up 54%
The author decomposes intraday and overnight returns for NVDA, SPY, QQQ, the Russell 2000, AAPL and GOOGL, noting Nvidia's overnight gains versus market-hours losses.
Nvidia is now flat for 2026. But if you only held it overnight, you’d be up 54%.Source →
Biotech licensing upfronts, not headline totals, are the cash to read first
The author explains that licensing deal upfronts are the meaningful cash and treats milestone payments as call options.
Two deals on the same day show why the upfront is the only number to read first On November 2,Source →
Most argued
by comments per upvoteAn r/stocks author expects post-selloff money to return only to the best-positioned AI stocks
The author argues money returning to AI stocks will go only to the best-positioned names, that some will flow to other areas such as APP as a company greatly utilizing AI, and that bonds are a periodic destination.
After trillions of dollars are plucked out of AI stocks where does that money go next?Source →
An SMCI FY2027-FY2028 EPS model concludes the stock looks inexpensive even against AI hardware peers
The author models SMCI's FY2027-FY2028 EPS from company financials and concludes SMCI looks inexpensive even against its AI hardware peers, provided it sustains current profitability.
SMCI EPS Forcast using Claude My conclusion is that SMCI looks inexpensive even against its AI hardware peers, provided it
The conclusion depends on SMCI sustaining current profitability.
Watch SMCI margins.
Source →A r/wallstreetbets poster says they are all in on Google instead of Nvidia
The author says they are all in on GOOG instead of Nvidia, linking a Bloomberg article on Google's TPU rivalry with Nvidia.
CCP Agent back to cleaning dishes 🔥 [All in GOOG instead of this CCP traitor gooner](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-11-09/google-escalates-nvidia-rivalry-with-new-versions-of-its-tpu-systems)Source →
Michael Burry remains short Nvidia, per a r/wallstreetbets post
The post says Michael Burry is still short Nvidia, citing a linked screenshot.
Michael Burry on NVIDIA He still short this company.Source →