Daily Alpha · X
· Premarket Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Citgo's raised EBITDA outlook, a reported AWS free-cash-flow outlook and Jukan's Micron strike view were the most specific posts; neocloud posts split between rising GPU rental prices and CoreWeave's bond yields.
Themes on this desk
Neocloud split
P Equity Research posted Nebius data showing B200 spot pricing up 109.4% in seven days, and ren_stocks said B300 rental prices hit an all-time high, while PhotonCap pointed to CoreWeave's roughly 15% 2031 bond yield and prefers suppliers ov
PC memory contracts
Jukan relayed Korean media reports that Lenovo, HP and Dell signed long-term agreements with memory makers; one PC executive said vendors received only 70-80% of requested DRAM and SSD volumes in the first half.
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Market Radar →Jukan expects the Micron strike to help Samsung and SK hynix but hurt Micron
Jukan contrasted it with an early-2010s SK hynix fab fire that benefited SK hynix through higher memory prices; with memory ASPs not particularly low now, Jukan expects the strike's opportunity cost to outweigh any upside for Micron.
A few friends have asked me whether the strike at Micron is bullish for the memory sector.
It splits Micron from its Korean peers on the same event.
Source →Exciting, $SIVE gets their first production orders for CW DFB lasers with LiDAR.
“We are pleased to see this strategic program advance from design-win to production”. Probably adds another ~$20M blended yearly revenue, over next few years. (Sivers margins are a lot higher, eg. 50-60%+) With opportunity for expansion given the speculated customer $AEVA is moving into CPO/NPO optical sources for hyperscalers and leveraging existing technology. But this is great commercial validation of technology and execution so far. That’s 1 qualification converted of many more to come, especially for AI DCs from $GFS to $JBL.
Exciting, $SIVE gets their first production orders for CW DFB lasers with LiDAR.Source →
Business Insider: an AWS infrastructure executive expects Amazon to stay free-cash-flow negative for the next couple of years
One Amazon email projected about $5 billion of Nvidia GB300 rack deliveries in August and roughly $3 billion a month after, while some AWS sites had room for racks but not enough power to turn them on.
Business Insider: Amazon > Kalyanaraman of AWS Infrastructure expects Amazon to remain free cash flow negative for "the next couple
Equipment was reportedly staged at intermediary warehouses until facilities were ready.
Source →Bubbleboi cited an ERCOT scenario in which firm peak falls to about 88 GW in 2028 because data centers are curtailable
Bubbleboi said under Texas SB6 every new large load can be told to shut off and switch to backup power, at a cost of about 177 hours of curtailment a year, and that ERCOT has not shed firm load since 2021.
No you fucking idiot, you’re looking at the wrong table. Energized GW is load, so I quoted the… load. Shocking.
His point is that the report says ERCOT cannot serve that load as firm load at the single worst hour of the year, not that it cannot serve it.
Source →Citgo reportedly raised its 2026 EBITDA outlook to $7.7-8.0 billion from $5.8 billion
Per an investor document reported by Bloomberg, Citgo raised its outlook on surging fuel margins; nine-month EBITDA was $4.5-4.8 billion, which TheValueist calculated implies a fourth quarter of $2.9-3.5 billion.
$VLO $MPC $PSX $DK $CLMT CITGO PETROLEUM:
The implied fourth quarter is 1.8 to 2.3 times the average quarter of the first nine months.
Watch Citgo's full results, due November 12.
Source →