Daily Alpha · Substack
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
The substantive items were a claim that GPU supply has gone to zero ahead of SemiAnalysis' cloud ratings, a private credit unwind thesis, and a disclosed rotation from leveraged biotech into leveraged gold miners.
Themes on this desk
Precious metals accumulation
Rooster argues USD strength is temporary and calls it a good time to accumulate precious metals, says gold and silver cannot be crashed, and disclosed switching a stopped-out leveraged biotech position into leveraged gold miners.
Private credit unwind
QTR argues a private credit bank run is already happening, that people are still standing at the exit, and that slow motion will eventually turn into a deluge of redemptions.
SemiAnalysis says GPU supply has gone to zero
The ClusterMAX 3.0 preview states that in the eight months since the last major release, investors have nearly run out of pockets to stuff checks into and that GPU supply has gone to zero.
A zero-supply GPU market supports pricing power for compute providers and continued capex urgency among AI buyers, with knock-on demand for GPU cloud capacity.
Watch GPU cloud pricing and availability trends, plus lead times for new capacity; easing supply or falling rental rates would contradict the claim.
Source →QTR argues a private credit bank run is ongoing, not a one-off
The preview argues the private credit unwind is not a rush for the exits that subsided, that people are still standing at the exit, and that the slow-motion train wreck keeps getting worse and will eventually accelerate into a deluge.
Sustained private credit redemptions would pressure credit spreads, lenders, and asset managers with private credit exposure, and could spill into broader risk assets.
Watch Private credit fund redemption gates, NAV marks, and credit spreads; stabilization in flows and spreads would weaken the bank-run framing.
Source →Rooster stopped out of LABU and is buying JNUG
The public preview states LABU was stopped out and that the author is buying JNUG, framing the switch as rotating from a leveraged biotech ETF into a leveraged gold-miners ETF.
A disclosed stop-out and rotation into leveraged gold miners signals a shift in risk appetite toward precious-metals beta, which can amplify moves in miner equities.
Watch Whether JNUG is held or also stopped out in subsequent posts, and whether gold miners outperform biotech after the rotation.
Source →