Daily Alpha · YouTube
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Who was talking 73 videos · 14 channels
Rates without guidance
1 video · 28mWarsh demanded sustained inflation progress but declined a mechanical reaction function; El-Erian supplied the strongest counterargument to the market's September repricing.
Fed Chair Warsh signals hawkish stance on inflation
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh stated that while the economy is resilient, inflation remains too high and the Fed must see clear, sustained progress toward its 2% PCE target before easing policy.
AI unit economics
3 videos · 1h 46mRapid token growth converged with two separate warnings that compute deflation and faster cost growth can make usage a poor proxy for durable cash flow.
Fed Chair Warsh signals hawkish stance on inflation
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh stated that while the economy is resilient, inflation remains too high and the Fed must see clear, sustained progress toward its 2% PCE target before easing policy.
AI compute as a hyper-deflationary commodity
AI compute costs are deflating at 70-80% annually, requiring frontier AI companies to achieve 400% volume growth just to maintain revenue levels.
OpenAI revenue growth vs. cost trajectory
Eisman identifies OpenAI as the 'weak sister' in the AI ecosystem, citing sequential revenue growth of only $1 billion against a $3 billion increase in costs over the same period.
Physical inflation
1 video · 3mRussian diesel withholding and record crack spreads keep fuel costs relevant to trucking, agriculture and the inflation path.
Geopolitical energy supply constraints driving diesel prices
Russia is withholding diesel supply, contributing to record-high crack spreads and elevated fuel costs, which are impacting trucking and agriculture.
Institutional hedging via credit default swaps (CDS) on Big Tech
The cost of 5-year credit default swaps for major technology firms (Nvidia, Broadcom, Alphabet, Amazon) is rising, signaling institutional concern regarding their debt levels.