Daily Alpha · X
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
The strongest posts separated explicit trades from crowded thematic enthusiasm.
Themes on this desk
Warsh repricing
Hike odds rose sharply after the speech, but El-Erian argued that anchored expectations and AI productivity make the September probability too high.
AI financing quality
Cloud growth is increasingly paired with short-dated debt and regulatory attention to prime-broker leverage, shifting the debate from demand to funding durability.
Supply-chain scarcity
Memory tightness through late 2027 and AAOI's capacity constraint offer more specific bottlenecks than a generic AI-hardware long.
Ticker heat
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Top voices by smart followers and alpha score
Market Radar →Skepticism regarding September Fed rate hike pricing
Mohamed El-Erian argues that market-implied probabilities of a September Fed rate hike are too high, citing anchored inflation expectations and AI-driven productivity gains.
49%. Both seem too high for three reasons: Market-based measures of inflation expectations remain well anchored.
Suggests potential for market repricing if the Fed remains more dovish than current market expectations.
Watch Monitor upcoming Fed commentary and inflation data for confirmation.
Source →China's currency undervaluation
Brad Setser argues that China's true current account surplus is significantly higher than reported, implying the yuan is roughly 35% undervalued and that China's currency management functions as an independent policy variable.
and thus the true surplus is $1.2 trillion/ 5.5% of GDP or so, 1.5 pp of GDP more than the
Persistent undervaluation and backdoor intervention suggest China's trade surplus could remain elevated, potentially pressuring other nations to adopt stronger currency diplomacy or trade restrictions.
Watch Monitor for changes in China's currency management policy or new trade restrictions from Europe and the US.
Source →Memory industry supply-demand tightness projected through 2027
Guosen Securities reports that AI infrastructure demand is driving a super cycle, with HBM and enterprise-grade SSD supply tightness expected to persist through late 2027.
> Supply-demand tightness for HBM and enterprise-grade SSDs is expected to persist through late 2027 before stabilizing in 2028.
Indicates sustained demand for memory manufacturers and potential pricing power.
Watch Monitor HBM wafer start percentages and enterprise SSD contract pricing.
Source →Long Crack Spread Thesis for Refiners
Goldman Sachs and other market participants recommend being long on crack spreads, citing tight refined product markets (diesel, gasoline, jet fuel) and limited relief in supply.
gas and coal between Europe and China (4:10–5:06). Investment Themes Mentioned (5:41–6:31): Long crack spreads (specifically for 2027).
This thesis suggests potential margin expansion for refiners despite stable crude oil prices, driven by product-specific supply tightness.
Watch Monitor crack spread pricing and refined product inventory levels as key indicators for refiner profitability.
Source →AAOI capacity bottleneck thesis
FinnStockinger argues that AAOI's $600M ATM offering is a strategic move to resolve capacity bottlenecks rather than a sign of business weakness, citing strong demand from hyperscalers and a potential revenue path to $4-5B by 2027.
“Demand is not the problem. Capacity is.” That’s a very important distinction.
If capacity is the primary constraint, AAOI's revenue growth could significantly outperform current market expectations, supporting a $500-600 price target.
Watch Monitor AAOI's ability to ramp production capacity in Texas and maintain LTA commitments; watch for similar capacity-constrained commentary from LITE and COHR.
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