O IMPACTO REAL DA QUEDA DE MADURO NÃO É O QUE VOCÊ PENSA | Market Makers #308

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 08, 2026 at 21:30  |  1:37:57  |  Market Makers
Speakers
Ricardo Kazan — Gestor, Legacy Capital
José Rocha — CIO, Dhalia Capital
Thiago Salomão — CEO Marketmakers

Summary

Thiago Salomão discusses the market implications of the US capture of Nicolás Maduro with José Rocha of Dhalia Capital and Ricardo Kazan of Legacy Capital. The guests frame the event within a broader geopolitical realignment: Venezuelan oil supply comes back slowly, reinforcing a bearish medium-term oil view, while gold and strategic commodities benefit from central-bank diversification and just-in-case stockpiling. They see dollar debasement, possible Fed cuts, and energy abundance as supportive for real assets and risk assets, with Brazil as an exporter beneficiary. Tail risks include inflation preventing rate cuts and geopolitical black swans.

  • US capture of Maduro triggers debate on oil, gold, dollar, and Brazil.
  • Oil is seen bearish medium-term due to supply surplus and eventual Venezuelan production growth.
  • Gold thesis is driven by central-bank buying and a broken correlation with US rates.
  • Just-in-case supply chains lift copper, rare earths, and other strategic commodities.
  • US fiscal and monetary mix points to dollar debasement and a weaker dollar.
  • Brazil and EWZ are seen helped by commodity positioning and a weak dollar.
  • Cheap energy may support Nasdaq and risk assets, but tail risks remain.
  • Discipline is advised amid tweet-driven volatility.
Ideas
Ricardo Kazan Gestor, Legacy Capital 8:20
Short oil on medium-term supply surplus.
Kazan sees oil bearish because global supply/demand is running a 2-4 million bpd surplus, inventories should rise, and the curve may flip from backwardation to contango. Venezuela can add 300-400k bpd within six months and eventually double production as US companies return, while OPEC may or may not defend prices. WTI at $50 would pressure Bakken; $40 would pressure broader US shale, and if OPEC lets US shale cut, prices can fall much lower. Legacy is explicitly short oil.
WTI BNO HIGH
Ricardo Kazan Gestor, Legacy Capital 18:29
Just-in-case stockpiling lifts critical commodities.
The world is moving from just-in-time to just-in-case supply chains. US copper inventories exploded and China's oil inventories exploded as each side stockpiles strategic commodities. The US needs copper, while China dominates rare earths and neodymium production, so critical commodity stockpiling creates structural demand for copper and rare earths.
COPPER REMX MED
José Rocha CIO, Dhalia Capital 38:57
Cheap energy supports Nasdaq and equities.
Cheap and abundant energy lowers global inflation and interest rates, which is a tailwind for risk assets. He says this indirectly helps the Nasdaq and equities generally, especially if no new geopolitical shocks occur.
QQQ MED
Ricardo Kazan Gestor, Legacy Capital 45:48
Central-bank gold demand broke rate correlation.
Gold's demand structure changed after 2022: central banks began buying about 70 tonnes per month versus about 15 before, as countries that are not US allies diversify reserves away from dollars and Treasuries after Russian assets were frozen. This broke gold's old negative correlation with US rates. Fed cuts and ETF/investment demand add to central-bank buying, while price-sensitive jewelry demand matters less. He is constructive on gold.
GLD HIGH
José Rocha CIO, Dhalia Capital 51:20
Metals benefit from dollar debasement.
Metals are being driven by the redesign of the third world order within Pax Americana, de-dollarization and reserve diversification, and US dollar debasement from loose fiscal and monetary policy. The move began in gold and is spreading to platinum, copper, rare earths, and recently iron ore. This is a broad real-asset and metals tailwind.
COPPER PPLT REMX Iron Ore HIGH
José Rocha CIO, Dhalia Capital 53:06
Loose US policy weakens the dollar.
US policy is pursuing a weak-dollar and debasement path: loose fiscal policy via the Big Beautiful Bill plus pressure for loose monetary policy and a more dovish Fed. This has weakened the dollar against the euro and real assets, and beneficiaries include gold, metals, Brazil, Nasdaq, Bitcoin, and land. He expects this mix to continue.
USD HIGH
José Rocha CIO, Dhalia Capital 53:06
Loose US policy weakens the dollar.
US policy is pursuing a weak-dollar and debasement path: loose fiscal policy via the Big Beautiful Bill plus pressure for loose monetary policy and a more dovish Fed. This has weakened the dollar against the euro and real assets, and beneficiaries include gold, metals, Brazil, Nasdaq, Bitcoin, and land. He expects this mix to continue.
EURUSD HIGH
José Rocha CIO, Dhalia Capital 60:12
Dollar debasement helps Brazil commodity assets.
US dollar debasement and a commodity-friendly inflation regime should help Brazil because it is a major commodity exporter with strategic positions in energy, food, and rare earths. He explicitly says this helps EWZ, the Brazilian stock market, and the Brazilian currency, while noting politics and other variables matter.
EWZ BOVA11.SA BRL MED
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This Market Makers video, published January 08, 2026, features Ricardo Kazan, José Rocha discussing WTI, BNO, COPPER, REMX, QQQ, GLD, PPLT, Iron Ore, USD, EURUSD, EWZ, BOVA11.SA, BRL. 8 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Ricardo Kazan, José Rocha  · Tickers: WTI, BNO, COPPER, REMX, QQQ, GLD, PPLT, Iron Ore, USD, EURUSD, EWZ, BOVA11.SA, BRL