What to Expect From the US Jobs Report

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 08, 2026 at 21:12  |  8:25  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Alli McCartney — Managing Director of Wealth Management, UBS Alignment Partners
Stuart Paul — Bloomberg Economics US and Canada Economist

Summary

Carol Massar and Tim Stenovic discuss the upcoming U.S. jobs report with Bloomberg economist Stuart Paul and Alli McCartney of UBS Alignment Partners. Stuart Paul argues that 150 basis points of Fed cuts in 2026 would be too much, sees the labor market slowdown as mostly structural, and expects a solid 80,000-100,000 December payroll gain. Alli McCartney remains constructive on equities, non-U.S. equities, bonds, and commodities, citing Fed directionality, fiscal tailwinds, GDP upside surprises, earnings breadth, the dollar, and geopolitical risk.

  • Fed Governor Miran's call for 150 bps of 2026 cuts is debated.
  • Stuart Paul says policy is not restrictive enough to warrant aggressive cuts and the labor slowdown is structural.
  • Stuart Paul expects December payrolls of 80,000-100,000, which he views as a good report.
  • Stuart Paul models a smaller House seat swing than betting markets imply.
  • Alli McCartney says markets are supported by Fed directionality, fiscal tailwinds, and GDP upside surprises.
  • Alli McCartney expects non-U.S. equities to continue outperforming and sees commodities rising on dollar and geopolitical risk.
  • Alli McCartney favors equities on earnings growth and breadth; she also expects bonds to benefit from rate direction.
  • Both guests downplay trading on presidential tweets, focusing on fundamentals and policy.
Ideas
Alli McCartney Managing Director of Wealth Management, UBS Alignment Partners 6:36
Bullish equities on earnings and Fed
She expects equities to keep doing well because earnings growth this year is likely to be significant at around 10-12% and much more broad, with the top ten companies growing about 22% while the rest grow 4-5%; Fed directionality and fiscal tailwinds also support risk assets. She says there is reason to be bullish despite fear of heights.
Equities HIGH
Alli McCartney Managing Director of Wealth Management, UBS Alignment Partners 6:42
Non-US equities to outperform again
Non-U.S. equities outperformed U.S. equities last year, and she expects more of the same this year as the same supports - Fed directionality, fiscal tailwinds, and upside GDP surprises - remain in place.
Non-U.S. equities HIGH
Alli McCartney Managing Director of Wealth Management, UBS Alignment Partners 6:48
Commodities rise on dollar and geopolitics
Commodities have risen for a host of reasons including the dollar and increasing geopolitical risk, and she expects more of that this year because the same levels of support and growth, Fed directionality, fiscal tailwinds, and upside GDP surprises remain in place.
DBC MED
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published January 08, 2026, features Alli McCartney discussing Equities, Non-U.S. equities, DBC. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Alli McCartney  · Tickers: Equities, Non-U.S. equities, DBC