AI could be both the biggest downside and upside risk, says Apollo's Slok

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 08, 2026 at 21:05  |  4:31  |  CNBC
Speakers
Torsten Slok — Partner, Apollo Global Management

Summary

Torsten Slok, partner and chief economist at Apollo, discusses the 2026 US economic outlook ahead of the jobs report. He expects an upside surprise in job growth, sees January Fed cut as unlikely, and argues the economy is shifting from a stagflationary to an overheating outlook. He highlights lower oil prices, a weaker dollar, AI/data center spending, and fiscal stimulus as tailwinds, while flagging AI earnings delivery as the number-one risk.

  • Apollo expects December job growth of 98k versus consensus 70k.
  • Slok sees a January Fed rate cut as very unlikely.
  • He argues the outlook is moving from stagflation to overheating with inflation near 3%.
  • Lower oil prices and added Venezuelan supply are expected to pressure oil lower.
  • The AI and data center spending boom is a key economic tailwind.
  • The biggest risk to the outlook is AI failing to deliver on earnings.
  • Fiscal policy and 100% capex expensing are expected to support 2026 growth.
  • Slok puts recession probability at about 10%, below the 30% consensus.
Ideas
Torsten Slok Partner, Apollo Global Management 1:27
Venezuela supply pressures oil lower
Lower oil prices are an important tailwind for the US economy, and developments in Venezuela are likely to add more supply to the oil market, creating further downward pressure on oil prices.
WTI HIGH
Torsten Slok Partner, Apollo Global Management 1:44
AI data center spending remains a tailwind
The AI and data center spending boom continues, providing a very important tailwind to the US economic outlook.
AI Data Centers MED
Torsten Slok Partner, Apollo Global Management 4:21
AI earnings delivery is key risk
The number one risk to the 2026 outlook is that AI does not deliver on earnings; if AI fails to meet earnings expectations, it could be a major downside risk for the economy and markets.
AI-SECTOR MED
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This CNBC video, published January 08, 2026, features Torsten Slok discussing WTI, AI Data Centers, AI-SECTOR. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Torsten Slok  · Tickers: WTI, AI Data Centers, AI-SECTOR