Alexander Campbell
· Campbell Ramble
· March 29, 2026 at 16:40
· ⏱ 19 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The Hormuz conflict is causing a supply chain cascade far beyond oil, affecting fertilizer, helium, sulfur, and industrial feedstocks with no demand cushion, leading to potential severe food inflation and industrial disruption. Markets have only priced crude, not the downstream impacts, creating a mispricing opportunity in US energy and fertilizer producers.
•49% of global urea exports and 44% of seaborne sulfur trade transit the Strait of Hormuz, threatening Green Revolution fertilizer supply.
•200 helium containers are stranded in the Gulf, with 8.2 million liters destined to vent to space starting April 6-16.
•Asia hits the energy delivery wall on April 1, Europe April 10, North America April 15, per JP Morgan oil timeline.
•India CFR urea spot is $510/ton, up 70% from late 2024, while US urea (NOLA) hit $687.50 per short ton, 76% of 2022 peak.
•Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG plant will take 3-5 years to repair after a precision strike; Emirates Global Aluminium smelter damage removes 4% of global aluminum capacity.
•In the base case (Hormuz closed through June), implied CPI impact: US +4.4%, EU +7.4%, India +11.5%, Southeast Asia +9.4%.
•India enters with record food grain stocks of 120 million tonnes, but under-fertilized kharif planting would deplete the buffer without replenishment.
•Dutch beam trawler fleet 80-90% idle as diesel costs equal catch revenue, demonstrating second-order effects within days.
Read time19 min
Length19,007 chars
Categoryfinance
Trade Ideas
Alexander CampbellFounder & CEO, Rose AI; ex-macro investor, Bridgewater
Author states 'CF Industries, the largest US nitrogen fertilizer producer, is printing money domestically' as US nat gas prices remain low while global fertilizer prices surge, giving CF a structural
Author states 'CF Industries, the largest US nitrogen fertilizer producer, is printing money domestically' as US nat gas prices remain low while global fertilizer prices surge, giving CF a structural cost advantage.
Risk: If Hormuz reopens quickly, fertilizer prices could normalize, compressing CF's margin advantage; also US regulatory or export restrictions could cap gains.
This newsletter, published March 29, 2026,
features Alexander Campbell
discussing CF.
1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.