Alexander Campbell
· Campbell Ramble
· March 18, 2026 at 03:38
· ⏱ 27 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The author argues the Hormuz crisis is a decoupling war over reserve currency (yuan vs. dollar) that the US can win by leveraging its naval power to surround the strait rather than invade Iran's heartland. For markets, this means persistent energy inflation, delayed AI acceleration, and a dangerous environment where 'everything is the same trade' — the implication is to reduce risk and preserve capital until clarity emerges.
•Iran declared two conditions for safe passage through Hormuz: you are a 'friend' and you price oil in Chinese yuan.
•The author compares the currency-based line of war to Napoleon's Continental System (1806).
•Trump called for a coalition to reopen the strait; Europeans are dithering; China gave a non-answer.
•The US is an energy exporter (shale, LNG) and can use its navy to seize Iranian ships 10-for-1 and sell their oil in dollars.
•Iran killed between 7,000 and 36,000 of its own citizens in January 2026; the 40-day mourning period historically triggers the next wave of protests.
•The author recommends flooding Iran with Starlinks and airdropping arms to support domestic resistance.
•SK Hynix is highlighted as trading at a sub-6 PE, reflecting the market's underappreciation of the AI bet amid macro chaos.
•The bond market is pricing in tightening in the front and easing in the back, reflecting stagflationary pressures from energy cost-push inflation.