Trade Ideas
Ares Capital is a large BDC; author expects redemption gating at Ares's private funds to spill over to the listed vehicle.
Main Street Capital has outperformed other BDCs but its premium valuation makes it vulnerable to sector re-rating as credit stress mounts.
Consumer lending stress often precedes corporate credit stress; SLM is a satellite position in the credit short book.
Blackstone is the poster child for alternatives industry build-out and carries maximum exposure to a regime change in private credit.
Carvana is a legacy short; author reduced position during a squeeze but remains short.
Insurance sector is a transmission channel for private credit stress to the real economy.
Blue Owl is a private credit manager directly exposed to fund redemptions, collateral markdowns, and tighter bank lending.
Leveraged loan prices are rolling over; BKLN puts are part of the credit short book.
Author uses GoEasy's 58% drop, C$178M charge-off, dividend elimination, and admission of booking payments before collection as concrete evidence of a credit cycle tail event in consumer lending.
Author uses GoEasy's 58% drop, C$178M charge-off, dividend elimination, and admission of booking payments before collection as concrete evidence of a credit cycle tail event in consumer lending.
Risk: Company-specific fraud and restructuring risk; further downside if credit conditions deteriorate.
Author uses HYG puts as a portfolio hedge and broad high-yield credit short, expecting credit spreads to blow out as private credit cracks.
This newsletter, published March 12, 2026,
features Alexander Campbell
discussing ARCC, MAIN, SLM, BX, CVNA, KIE, OWL, BKLN, GSY, HYG.
10 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Alexander Campbell
· Tickers:
ARCC,
MAIN,
SLM,
BX,
CVNA,
KIE,
OWL,
BKLN,
GSY,
HYG