Alexander Campbell 5.0 32 ideas

Substack author, Campbell Ramble
After 1 day
32%winrate
-0.2% avg
18W / 39L · 57/57 ideas
After 1 week
67%winrate
+2.0% avg
37W / 18L · 55/55 ideas
After 1 month
53%winrate
+1.0% avg
16W / 14L · 30/53 ideas
16 winning  /  14 losing  ·  30 positions (30d)
Net: +1.0%
Recent positions
TickerDirEntryP&LDate
USO LONG $127.10 Apr 14
WEAT LONG $22.25 Apr 14
CANE LONG $9.35 Apr 14
SONIA LONG — — Apr 14
GLD LONG $439.53 Apr 14
CORN LONG $17.85 Apr 14
SPY SHORT $687.71 Apr 14
VIX LONG $29.60 Apr 12
SHY LONG $82.43 Mar 31
IEI LONG $118.43 Mar 31
USO LONG $124.57 Mar 31
KMI LONG $32.72 Mar 31
NEXT LONG $7.57 Mar 31
ET LONG $19.20 Mar 31
DOW LONG $38.86 Mar 31
CORN LONG $17.84 Mar 31
WEAT LONG $21.74 Mar 31
CANE LONG $9.34 Mar 31
USO LONG $124.57 Mar 23
GLD LONG $436.78 Mar 23
CREDIT SHORT — — Mar 23
GLD LONG $436.78 Mar 20
SLV SHORT $68.83 Mar 20
By sector
ETF
20 ideas
Stock
9 ideas
index
1 ideas
sector
1 ideas
unresolved
1 ideas
Top tickers (by frequency)
GLD 4 ideas
— —
USO 3 ideas
— —
CANE 2 ideas
— —
CORN 2 ideas
— —
WEAT 2 ideas
— —
Massive offline nitrogen capacity will impact corn yields, though it has the longest fuse and biggest buffer among the agricultural commodities.
CORN HIGH Apr 14, 12:55
"We hold longer term (fall/winter) calls but the catalysts are closer and the mechanisms more direct in the other two."
TLDR
The author outlines a 'cascade' trading strategy focusing on the second- and third-order effects of a Middle East naval blockade and energy shock. While the market has priced in the immediate impact on oil, the author is positioning for agricultural supply destruction (wheat, sugar, corn) caused by elevated energy and fertilizer prices, balanced against UK interest rate futures (SONIA) as a hedge in case of peace. • The market prices first-order impacts of geopolitical shocks quickly, but second-order 'cascade' effects take 6-18 months to materialize. • A portfolio balanced for both war and peace is necessary given the volatile situation in the Middle East. • UK SONIA short rate futures act as the 'peace' trade, profiting if oil falls and the Bank of England cuts rates aggressively. • Agricultural commodities (grains and sugar) act as the 'war' trade, driven by energy-intensive fertilizer shortages and ethanol substitution. • Sugar faces immediate supply shifts as Brazilian mills divert sugarcane to ethanol due to high Brent crude prices. • Winter wheat faces a 'panic bid' from MENA countries seeking food security amid the smallest US wheat crop in a century.
▣ Campbell Ramble ⏲ long-term Source ↗
April 14, 2026 at 12:55
▣ Alexander Campbell
Substack author, Campbell Ramble
Taking slight profits on crude call spreads following news of Iran caving on enrichment, but maintaining the bulk of the long position.
USO HIGH Apr 14, 12:55
"I took off around 1% of crude call spreads after the news, down 15% from the daily highs, but still up on the trade."
TLDR
The author outlines a 'cascade' trading strategy focusing on the second- and third-order effects of a Middle East naval blockade and energy shock. While the market has priced in the immediate impact on oil, the author is positioning for agricultural supply destruction (wheat, sugar, corn) caused by elevated energy and fertilizer prices, balanced against UK interest rate futures (SONIA) as a hedge in case of peace. • The market prices first-order impacts of geopolitical shocks quickly, but second-order 'cascade' effects take 6-18 months to materialize. • A portfolio balanced for both war and peace is necessary given the volatile situation in the Middle East. • UK SONIA short rate futures act as the 'peace' trade, profiting if oil falls and the Bank of England cuts rates aggressively. • Agricultural commodities (grains and sugar) act as the 'war' trade, driven by energy-intensive fertilizer shortages and ethanol substitution. • Sugar faces immediate supply shifts as Brazilian mills divert sugarcane to ethanol due to high Brent crude prices. • Winter wheat faces a 'panic bid' from MENA countries seeking food security amid the smallest US wheat crop in a century.
▣ Campbell Ramble ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
April 14, 2026 at 12:55
▣ Alexander Campbell
Substack author, Campbell Ramble
Gold is trading poorly now, but Iran demanding toll payments in yuan and crypto is highly constructive for gold long-term.
GLD HIGH Apr 14, 12:55
"I’m getting more bullish, not less. Slowly moving out of delta one and into long-dated call spreads and flies."
TLDR
The author outlines a 'cascade' trading strategy focusing on the second- and third-order effects of a Middle East naval blockade and energy shock. While the market has priced in the immediate impact on oil, the author is positioning for agricultural supply destruction (wheat, sugar, corn) caused by elevated energy and fertilizer prices, balanced against UK interest rate futures (SONIA) as a hedge in case of peace. • The market prices first-order impacts of geopolitical shocks quickly, but second-order 'cascade' effects take 6-18 months to materialize. • A portfolio balanced for both war and peace is necessary given the volatile situation in the Middle East. • UK SONIA short rate futures act as the 'peace' trade, profiting if oil falls and the Bank of England cuts rates aggressively. • Agricultural commodities (grains and sugar) act as the 'war' trade, driven by energy-intensive fertilizer shortages and ethanol substitution. • Sugar faces immediate supply shifts as Brazilian mills divert sugarcane to ethanol due to high Brent crude prices. • Winter wheat faces a 'panic bid' from MENA countries seeking food security amid the smallest US wheat crop in a century.
▣ Campbell Ramble ⏲ long-term Source ↗
April 14, 2026 at 12:55
▣ Alexander Campbell
Substack author, Campbell Ramble
The smallest US wheat crop in a century combined with panic food-security buying from MENA countries creates a massive demand shock.
WEAT HIGH Apr 14, 12:55
"And we added winter wheat futures after doing a ton of vol work which convinced me to puke the vol and just buy delta."
TLDR
The author outlines a 'cascade' trading strategy focusing on the second- and third-order effects of a Middle East naval blockade and energy shock. While the market has priced in the immediate impact on oil, the author is positioning for agricultural supply destruction (wheat, sugar, corn) caused by elevated energy and fertilizer prices, balanced against UK interest rate futures (SONIA) as a hedge in case of peace. • The market prices first-order impacts of geopolitical shocks quickly, but second-order 'cascade' effects take 6-18 months to materialize. • A portfolio balanced for both war and peace is necessary given the volatile situation in the Middle East. • UK SONIA short rate futures act as the 'peace' trade, profiting if oil falls and the Bank of England cuts rates aggressively. • Agricultural commodities (grains and sugar) act as the 'war' trade, driven by energy-intensive fertilizer shortages and ethanol substitution. • Sugar faces immediate supply shifts as Brazilian mills divert sugarcane to ethanol due to high Brent crude prices. • Winter wheat faces a 'panic bid' from MENA countries seeking food security amid the smallest US wheat crop in a century.
▣ Campbell Ramble ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
April 14, 2026 at 12:55
▣ Alexander Campbell
Substack author, Campbell Ramble
If peace resolves the Middle East conflict, oil falls, inflation expectations collapse, and the Bank of England cuts rates aggressively.
SONIA HIGH Apr 14, 12:55
"For peace: UK SONIA short rates... The position has already paid us on the ceasefire rally, and if Iran folds on enrichment it likely pays enough to cover the grain book's losses in full."
TLDR
The author outlines a 'cascade' trading strategy focusing on the second- and third-order effects of a Middle East naval blockade and energy shock. While the market has priced in the immediate impact on oil, the author is positioning for agricultural supply destruction (wheat, sugar, corn) caused by elevated energy and fertilizer prices, balanced against UK interest rate futures (SONIA) as a hedge in case of peace. • The market prices first-order impacts of geopolitical shocks quickly, but second-order 'cascade' effects take 6-18 months to materialize. • A portfolio balanced for both war and peace is necessary given the volatile situation in the Middle East. • UK SONIA short rate futures act as the 'peace' trade, profiting if oil falls and the Bank of England cuts rates aggressively. • Agricultural commodities (grains and sugar) act as the 'war' trade, driven by energy-intensive fertilizer shortages and ethanol substitution. • Sugar faces immediate supply shifts as Brazilian mills divert sugarcane to ethanol due to high Brent crude prices. • Winter wheat faces a 'panic bid' from MENA countries seeking food security amid the smallest US wheat crop in a century.
▣ Campbell Ramble ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
April 14, 2026 at 12:55
▣ Alexander Campbell
Substack author, Campbell Ramble
High Brent crude makes ethanol more profitable than sugar, causing Brazilian mills to shift allocation and shrink the global sugar surplus.
CANE HIGH Apr 14, 12:55
"We remain long sugar call spreads."
TLDR
The author outlines a 'cascade' trading strategy focusing on the second- and third-order effects of a Middle East naval blockade and energy shock. While the market has priced in the immediate impact on oil, the author is positioning for agricultural supply destruction (wheat, sugar, corn) caused by elevated energy and fertilizer prices, balanced against UK interest rate futures (SONIA) as a hedge in case of peace. • The market prices first-order impacts of geopolitical shocks quickly, but second-order 'cascade' effects take 6-18 months to materialize. • A portfolio balanced for both war and peace is necessary given the volatile situation in the Middle East. • UK SONIA short rate futures act as the 'peace' trade, profiting if oil falls and the Bank of England cuts rates aggressively. • Agricultural commodities (grains and sugar) act as the 'war' trade, driven by energy-intensive fertilizer shortages and ethanol substitution. • Sugar faces immediate supply shifts as Brazilian mills divert sugarcane to ethanol due to high Brent crude prices. • Winter wheat faces a 'panic bid' from MENA countries seeking food security amid the smallest US wheat crop in a century.
▣ Campbell Ramble ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
April 14, 2026 at 12:55
▣ Alexander Campbell
Substack author, Campbell Ramble
Rolling short credit exposure into equity puts to avoid messy duration hedges while maintaining downside protection.
SPY HIGH Apr 14, 12:55
"I rolled the short exposure into May SPX put spreads, 1.5-4% out of the money."
TLDR
The author outlines a 'cascade' trading strategy focusing on the second- and third-order effects of a Middle East naval blockade and energy shock. While the market has priced in the immediate impact on oil, the author is positioning for agricultural supply destruction (wheat, sugar, corn) caused by elevated energy and fertilizer prices, balanced against UK interest rate futures (SONIA) as a hedge in case of peace. • The market prices first-order impacts of geopolitical shocks quickly, but second-order 'cascade' effects take 6-18 months to materialize. • A portfolio balanced for both war and peace is necessary given the volatile situation in the Middle East. • UK SONIA short rate futures act as the 'peace' trade, profiting if oil falls and the Bank of England cuts rates aggressively. • Agricultural commodities (grains and sugar) act as the 'war' trade, driven by energy-intensive fertilizer shortages and ethanol substitution. • Sugar faces immediate supply shifts as Brazilian mills divert sugarcane to ethanol due to high Brent crude prices. • Winter wheat faces a 'panic bid' from MENA countries seeking food security amid the smallest US wheat crop in a century.
▣ Campbell Ramble ⏲ short-term Source ↗
April 14, 2026 at 12:55
▣ Alexander Campbell
Substack author, Campbell Ramble
The author believes the escalating conflict in the Middle East will lead to increased market volatility, as seen in the recent spike in crude and drop in stocks.
VIX HIGH Apr 12, 23:24
"I bot some VIX calls late last week, so call me biased."
TLDR
The article argues that escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, driven by a U.S. 'Rimland' strategy to control key waterways and energy routes, are causing a spike in oil prices and market volatility. This conflict draws in China and threatens to cascade into agricultural markets and broader inflation, forcing the Fed to consider tightening. The author suggests the market has not yet fully priced these interconnected risks. • The U.S. is implementing a 'Rimland' strategy, interdicting ships and threatening tariffs to control sea lanes and isolate Iran, thereby drawing China into the conflict. • Escalation is driving up oil prices and market volatility, with potential for further disruption if the Houthis block the Bab el-Mandeb strait. • China's economic fragility may limit its ability to respond, but the conflict has already triggered a risk-off move in markets. • Higher energy prices threaten to reduce disposable income and force the Fed to consider tightening monetary policy to combat inflation. • Agricultural markets are mispricing the cascading effects of the conflict, as fertilizer costs and supply constraints are already baked in. • The author sees the situation as a growing, multi-faceted crisis that will continue to impact markets beyond immediate headline reactions.
▣ Campbell Ramble ⏲ short-term Source ↗
April 12, 2026 at 23:24
▣ Alexander Campbell
Substack author, Campbell Ramble
Spot energy and first-order oil trades are mostly priced, but the position provides direct sensitivity to the book that the author is happy to hold.
USO HIGH Mar 31, 04:23
"We have about 60bps of June 85/95 call spreads we picked up for ~30bps after the front end collapsed from 120 to sub-$80 a couple of weeks ago."
TLDR
The author outlines a 'cascade trade' strategy designed to profit from potential geopolitical escalation while hedging against a sudden peace resolution. The core thesis is that while direct oil impacts are mostly priced in, secondary agricultural shocks (fertilizer shortages, ethanol demand) remain unpriced and offer asymmetric upside. • Peace is linear and mostly priced by the market, while war is exponential and priced with a lag. • Direct oil trades are crowded and mostly priced in, though US LNG and pipeline infrastructure remain structurally advantaged. • The primary opportunity lies in the 'cascade' effects on agriculture: nitrogen fertilizer shortages hitting corn, ethanol demand pulling sugar, and wheat acting as a panic premium. • The author is long a basket of corn, wheat, and sugar call options to capture these unpriced secondary shocks. • To hedge against a sudden peace resolution, the author is buying front-end rate options (Schatz calls, IEI), betting that central banks will ease if the energy shock dissipates.
▣ Campbell Ramble ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
March 31, 2026 at 04:23
▣ Alexander Campbell
Substack author, Campbell Ramble
Acts as a peace hedge; if the conflict resolves, the recent massive repricing of rate hikes will unwind quickly.
SHY HIGH Mar 31, 04:23
"In the meantime, we bought Schatz (German 2-year bond) Sep 106 calls on Eurex for roughly 80bps..."
TLDR
The author outlines a 'cascade trade' strategy designed to profit from potential geopolitical escalation while hedging against a sudden peace resolution. The core thesis is that while direct oil impacts are mostly priced in, secondary agricultural shocks (fertilizer shortages, ethanol demand) remain unpriced and offer asymmetric upside. • Peace is linear and mostly priced by the market, while war is exponential and priced with a lag. • Direct oil trades are crowded and mostly priced in, though US LNG and pipeline infrastructure remain structurally advantaged. • The primary opportunity lies in the 'cascade' effects on agriculture: nitrogen fertilizer shortages hitting corn, ethanol demand pulling sugar, and wheat acting as a panic premium. • The author is long a basket of corn, wheat, and sugar call options to capture these unpriced secondary shocks. • To hedge against a sudden peace resolution, the author is buying front-end rate options (Schatz calls, IEI), betting that central banks will ease if the energy shock dissipates.
▣ Campbell Ramble ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
March 31, 2026 at 04:23
▣ Alexander Campbell
Substack author, Campbell Ramble
The market has already priced in the direct oil shock, so there is no edge in buying the broad US energy ETF.
XLE HIGH Mar 31, 04:23
"The US Energy ETF XLE has been going up in a straight shot for this reason. This isn’t where the edge is."
TLDR
The author outlines a 'cascade trade' strategy designed to profit from potential geopolitical escalation while hedging against a sudden peace resolution. The core thesis is that while direct oil impacts are mostly priced in, secondary agricultural shocks (fertilizer shortages, ethanol demand) remain unpriced and offer asymmetric upside. • Peace is linear and mostly priced by the market, while war is exponential and priced with a lag. • Direct oil trades are crowded and mostly priced in, though US LNG and pipeline infrastructure remain structurally advantaged. • The primary opportunity lies in the 'cascade' effects on agriculture: nitrogen fertilizer shortages hitting corn, ethanol demand pulling sugar, and wheat acting as a panic premium. • The author is long a basket of corn, wheat, and sugar call options to capture these unpriced secondary shocks. • To hedge against a sudden peace resolution, the author is buying front-end rate options (Schatz calls, IEI), betting that central banks will ease if the energy shock dissipates.
▣ Campbell Ramble ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
March 31, 2026 at 04:23
▣ Alexander Campbell
Substack author, Campbell Ramble
Serving as a temporary duration hedge placeholder until SONIA options permissions clear.
IEI HIGH Mar 31, 04:23
"...and some intermediate US Treasuries (IEI) as a bridge because the duration hedge to our short credit trade had rolled off."
TLDR
The author outlines a 'cascade trade' strategy designed to profit from potential geopolitical escalation while hedging against a sudden peace resolution. The core thesis is that while direct oil impacts are mostly priced in, secondary agricultural shocks (fertilizer shortages, ethanol demand) remain unpriced and offer asymmetric upside. • Peace is linear and mostly priced by the market, while war is exponential and priced with a lag. • Direct oil trades are crowded and mostly priced in, though US LNG and pipeline infrastructure remain structurally advantaged. • The primary opportunity lies in the 'cascade' effects on agriculture: nitrogen fertilizer shortages hitting corn, ethanol demand pulling sugar, and wheat acting as a panic premium. • The author is long a basket of corn, wheat, and sugar call options to capture these unpriced secondary shocks. • To hedge against a sudden peace resolution, the author is buying front-end rate options (Schatz calls, IEI), betting that central banks will ease if the energy shock dissipates.
▣ Campbell Ramble ⏲ short-term Source ↗
March 31, 2026 at 04:23
▣ Alexander Campbell
Substack author, Campbell Ramble
Corn faces compounding shocks from nitrogen fertilizer costs, ethanol demand pull if oil rises, and seasonal weather volatility.
CORN HIGH Mar 31, 04:23
"Corn December 525 calls... The honest summary: the grain book is on and we’re confident in it."
TLDR
The author outlines a 'cascade trade' strategy designed to profit from potential geopolitical escalation while hedging against a sudden peace resolution. The core thesis is that while direct oil impacts are mostly priced in, secondary agricultural shocks (fertilizer shortages, ethanol demand) remain unpriced and offer asymmetric upside. • Peace is linear and mostly priced by the market, while war is exponential and priced with a lag. • Direct oil trades are crowded and mostly priced in, though US LNG and pipeline infrastructure remain structurally advantaged. • The primary opportunity lies in the 'cascade' effects on agriculture: nitrogen fertilizer shortages hitting corn, ethanol demand pulling sugar, and wheat acting as a panic premium. • The author is long a basket of corn, wheat, and sugar call options to capture these unpriced secondary shocks. • To hedge against a sudden peace resolution, the author is buying front-end rate options (Schatz calls, IEI), betting that central banks will ease if the energy shock dissipates.
▣ Campbell Ramble ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
March 31, 2026 at 04:23
▣ Alexander Campbell
Substack author, Campbell Ramble
US LNG exporters benefit from structural advantages as the US exports maximum natural gas and Gulf infrastructure proves vulnerable.
NEXT HIGH Mar 31, 04:23
"Regular readers will know we’ve had positions in... NextDecade (NEXT shares, 34bps)... for a couple of weeks."
TLDR
The author outlines a 'cascade trade' strategy designed to profit from potential geopolitical escalation while hedging against a sudden peace resolution. The core thesis is that while direct oil impacts are mostly priced in, secondary agricultural shocks (fertilizer shortages, ethanol demand) remain unpriced and offer asymmetric upside. • Peace is linear and mostly priced by the market, while war is exponential and priced with a lag. • Direct oil trades are crowded and mostly priced in, though US LNG and pipeline infrastructure remain structurally advantaged. • The primary opportunity lies in the 'cascade' effects on agriculture: nitrogen fertilizer shortages hitting corn, ethanol demand pulling sugar, and wheat acting as a panic premium. • The author is long a basket of corn, wheat, and sugar call options to capture these unpriced secondary shocks. • To hedge against a sudden peace resolution, the author is buying front-end rate options (Schatz calls, IEI), betting that central banks will ease if the energy shock dissipates.
▣ Campbell Ramble ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
March 31, 2026 at 04:23
▣ Alexander Campbell
Substack author, Campbell Ramble
The options were fairly priced rather than expensive, and the basis risk was too high to justify the trade.
EWY HIGH Mar 31, 04:23
"We came close to selling put spreads on... Korean equities (EWY)... The basis risk (oil up, ags flat) was enough to walk away."
TLDR
The author outlines a 'cascade trade' strategy designed to profit from potential geopolitical escalation while hedging against a sudden peace resolution. The core thesis is that while direct oil impacts are mostly priced in, secondary agricultural shocks (fertilizer shortages, ethanol demand) remain unpriced and offer asymmetric upside. • Peace is linear and mostly priced by the market, while war is exponential and priced with a lag. • Direct oil trades are crowded and mostly priced in, though US LNG and pipeline infrastructure remain structurally advantaged. • The primary opportunity lies in the 'cascade' effects on agriculture: nitrogen fertilizer shortages hitting corn, ethanol demand pulling sugar, and wheat acting as a panic premium. • The author is long a basket of corn, wheat, and sugar call options to capture these unpriced secondary shocks. • To hedge against a sudden peace resolution, the author is buying front-end rate options (Schatz calls, IEI), betting that central banks will ease if the energy shock dissipates.
▣ Campbell Ramble ⏲ short-term Source ↗
March 31, 2026 at 04:23
▣ Alexander Campbell
Substack author, Campbell Ramble
Alexander Campbell (Substack author, Campbell Ramble) | 32 trade ideas tracked | GLD, USO, CANE, CORN, WEAT | Substack | Buzzberg