Alexander Campbell
· Campbell Ramble
· March 20, 2026 at 04:29
· ⏱ 13 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
Gold's 10% crash is driven by temporary dollar strength, liquidity scrambles, and broken Asian buying channels, but the long-term bull case (structural de-dollarization, fiscal deterioration, inflation) remains intact. The author cut 80% of his book to survive the drawdown and plans to rebuild into miners once the dust settles, drawing a 2008 analog where a 25% gold selloff preceded a tripling over three years.
•Gold fell ~10% in 24 hours, another -10 standard deviation move in two months.
•Five bearish pressures: dollar strength (DXY near 100), higher rates (U.S. 2-year up 60bp), scramble for liquidity, broken Dubai-to-Asia gold pipe, and technical/reversion selling by CTAs.
•The Hormuz war both causes the selloff (via dollar strength) and strengthens the long-term case (higher defense spending, fiscal deterioration, de-dollarization pressure).
•Central bank gold buying is at record levels for three straight years: China, India (79 tonnes/month in January), Poland, Singapore, Czech Republic all adding.
•Author cut 80% of his book, hedged silver against gold, and reduced gold to 5% with upside calls remaining.
•Drawdowns are inevitable; the goal is to survive them (as in 2008 gold selloff) to capture the structural move over the next 2-5 years.