Energy Crisis: Oil and Gas Prices Keep Surging, as Metals Fall
Speakers
Summary
- Mike McGlone maintains his thesis that prolonged high oil prices from the energy crisis will tilt the global economy into recession and deflation, similar to the 2008 pattern.
- He cites historical precedent: crude oil peaked at $147 in July 2008 with CPI at 5.6%, fell to $32 by year-end, and CPI bottomed at -2% the next year; he believes this is recurring.
- Metals like gold, silver, and copper are collapsing, signaling delayed deflationary recessionary forces stemming from the energy crisis.
- Silver was up 63% in January but is now down almost 3% year-to-date, and McGlone states this decline is "just getting started."
- Gold, which rose pre-emptively last year, is now falling and "looking forward to a more secure future," suggesting it may have peaked as a leading indicator.
- Volatility in commodities (crude oil, gold) has not fully transmitted to the stock market, but McGlone observes "wobbling" and compares it to post-9/11 trends that accelerated downward moves.
- Geopolitical tensions, such as attacks on Qatar's LNG facility (damage could take 3-5 years to repair), exacerbate the energy crisis, but McGlone anticipates potential easing by midterms.
- Key risk: If the energy crisis resolves without triggering a broad recession, the deflationary thesis might not hold.
- Narrow observation: Gold's behavior as a forward-looking indicator, with its recent decline suggesting market anticipation of reduced geopolitical stress.
Trade Ideas
Speaker explicitly stated that crude oil peaked at $147 in July 2008 with CPI at 5.6%, fell to $32 by year-end, and he thinks this pattern is happening now. High oil prices from the ongoing energy crisis will likely lead to a global recession and deflation, causing oil prices to collapse as in 2008. SHORT crude oil due to the expected significant price drop driven by recessionary forces. If the energy crisis abates quickly without causing a recession, oil prices might remain elevated.
Speaker noted that silver was up 63% in January but is now down almost 3% year-to-date, and said "this is just getting started." Metals are collapsing due to deflationary recessionary forces emanating from the energy crisis, indicating further downside. SHORT silver as further decline is expected based on the speaker's direct commentary. If deflationary forces do not materialize or geopolitical tensions escalate anew, silver could rebound.
Speaker mentioned that 60-day volatility on the S&P 500 is still down on the year despite commodity volatility, and observed "wobbling" in the stock market. Historical patterns (e.g., post-9/11) show that commodity crises can transmit volatility to equities, leading to declines; current energy crisis is likely to trigger similar effects. SHORT S&P 500 due to the anticipated downturn from the trickle-up of commodity volatility and recessionary fears. If commodity volatility subsides without impacting corporate earnings or investor sentiment, stocks might avoid a downturn.
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published March 19, 2026, features Mike McGlone discussing WTI, SILVER, SPY. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Mike McGlone · Tickers: WTI, SILVER, SPY