Trader Called Oil Spike, Reveals Next Explosion: Gareth Soloway On Stocks, Gold, Bitcoin
Speakers
Summary
- Oil Macro View: Believes the $120 high is in for oil and expects a drawdown to ~$70/barrel over the next 3-6 months. Thesis combines chart analysis with a geopolitical/political overlay, suggesting the U.S. administration has an incentive to lower oil prices before midterm elections to curb inflation.
- Equities & Macro Risk: Net bearish on the S&P 500, drawing an "eerily similar" parallel to 2008 with a rounded top formation, oil spike, and stress in private credit markets. Sees a base case of stagflation (economic slowing + persistent inflation) and targets a move down to 5600 on the S&P, potentially by year-end.
- Gold/Silver Thesis: Contrarian bearish near-term, forecasting gold back to $3,500 and silver to $50-54 by year-end. Argues the metals have transitioned from "safe haven" to "get rich quick" emotional assets, creating weak hands that are now selling on fear (e.g., Iran conflict). Remains a long-term buyer at those lower levels.
- Bitcoin Tactical View: Most bullish near-term asset, targeting a move to $80,000-85,000 driven by a short-term "risk-on" bounce if oil pulls back. However, notes a bearish head & shoulders pattern with a measured target near $35,000, which could align with a later 2024 economic slowdown.
- Sector & Stock Picks: Explicitly short Micron (MU), viewing its parabolic rally as similar to prior bubbles (e.g., Oracle) and citing the non-proprietary, cyclical nature of memory storage. Shifting toward defensive, dividend-paying names (e.g., mentions "Kagra" - likely Kraft Heinz) for a deteriorating economic environment.
- Fed & Market Dynamics: Argues the Fed is in a precarious position with rising inflation prints (citing hot PPI) and a weakening economy, making near-term rate cuts "almost impossible." Notes the 10-year yield is already moving up, which may tighten financial conditions regardless of Fed action.
- Labor Market Concern: Highlights that job losses are not yet catastrophic but fears a coming wave of AI-driven layoffs (citing Meta, Block, Oracle plans) could spike unemployment and severely impact consumer spending.
- Analytical Edge: Relies heavily on technical analysis to identify "probabilities" and emotional extremes (FOMO/FUD) in markets, using charts to maintain a logical stance—evidenced by his pre-Iran war oil breakout call and Bitcoin top call in 2025.
Trade Ideas
Stated "the highs are in on oil at $120" and expects "a draw down in the next 3 to six months back to $70 a barrel." Believes geopolitical pressure (Iran conflict) will abate as the U.S. has a political incentive to lower oil-induced inflation ahead of midterm elections. Also anticipates U.S. economic weakness. SHORT because the spike to $120 is seen as a panic-driven peak, and a combination of political resolution and economic slowing should catalyze a significant mean reversion. The Iran conflict escalates or spreads, keeping supply fears elevated and preventing the predicted drawdown.
Said, "I have a small short position up here on Micron" and can "see something very similar to what happened on Oracle occurring on Micron." Views Micron's rally as a parabolic, FOMO-driven move identical to prior bubbles. Fundamental view is that memory storage is not proprietary and the current shortage will abate, causing prices and stock prices to "collapse." SHORT to capitalize on the expected bursting of a speculative bubble in memory stocks, anticipating a 50%+ downside. The memory shortage is more structural and prolonged than anticipated, leading to sustained higher earnings and justifying the current price.
Explicitly said, "I think gold by the end of this year is back to $3,500 per ounce." Identifies a bearish chart pattern (inside bar bearish flag) and argues gold has lost its "safe haven" status in the near term, becoming an emotional "get rich quick" asset filled with "weak hands" who will sell on fear. SHORT because the chart signals breakdown and the shift in market psychology (from safe-haven to speculative asset) necessitates a flush-out of weak holders to much lower prices. A severe, sustained financial crisis triggers a sudden rush back to traditional safe havens, overriding the current technical and behavioral setup.
Stated "I think silver is going to be back to about $50 to $54 per ounce by year end." Points to a clear bear flag pattern on the chart and groups it with gold as having become an emotionally-driven speculative asset rather than a stable store of value. SHORT for the same core reasons as gold: technical breakdown and the need to wash out speculative, weak-handed buyers. A sustained industrial demand surge coupled with supply constraints reverses the technical breakdown.
Said, "I still think it's going to go higher... towards that 80 to 84,000 level" and that he is "still long Bitcoin looking for 80-85K." Expects a near-term "risk-on" bounce in markets, propelled by a pullback in oil prices, which will benefit Bitcoin as a risk asset. It has also been the best-performing major asset over the past month, showing relative strength. LONG as a tactical trade to capitalize on a short-term relief rally in risk assets. The expected oil pullback does not materialize or is delayed, stifling the "risk-on" bounce. A breakdown below $60,000 would invalidate the near-term bullish case.
States he is "net bearish on the S&P" and targets "the low on this market will be somewhere in this 5500 to 5600 level." Points to a concerning rounded top distribution pattern (similar to 2008), underlying economic weakness (labor, consumer), stagflationary pressures, and stress in private credit markets. SHORT because the confluence of technical deterioration, macroeconomic slowdown (stagflation), and credit market stress suggests a significant correction is likely. The Federal Reserve intervenes more aggressively than expected with stimulus, or the economic data meaningfully improves, preventing the downturn.
Up Next
This The David Lin Report video, published March 18, 2026, features Gareth Soloway discussing WTI, MU, GOLD, SILVER, BTC, SPY. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Gareth Soloway · Tickers: WTI, MU, GOLD, SILVER, BTC, SPY