Oil Price Surge Also Pulls Refiners Into Correction? Now Is the Time to Watch for 'This Moment' Rather Than Chase Buying | Yoon Jae-sung, Senior Research Fellow at Hana Securities Research Center

Oil Price Surge Also Pulls Refiners Into Correction? Now Is the Time to Watch for 'This Moment' Rather Than Chase Buying | Yoon Jae-sung, Senior Research Fellow at Hana Securities Research Center [Double Up]
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  September 15, 2026 at 01:33  |  25:54  |  3PRO TV (삼프로TV)
Speakers
Yoon Jae-sung — Research Fellow

Summary

Yoon Jae-sung of Hana Securities discusses Middle East supply disruptions, oil price spikes, and their impact on refiners, solar, and energy commodities. He maintains an overweight on Korean refiners despite near-term correction risk, favors Korean solar beneficiaries of US Section 232, and sees upside risks in Dubai crude, diesel, and LNG/natural gas. He also expects OPEC fragmentation to create medium-term oil oversupply, while advising investors not to chase energy-related stocks during the current oil spike.

  • Middle East route blockages and the Saudi pipeline attack are disrupting crude flows and raising freight costs.
  • Yoon maintains an overweight on Korean refiners, recommending buying on corrections rather than chasing.
  • US Section 232 solar measures are seen as benefiting Korean solar firms OCI Holdings and Hanwha Solutions.
  • Dubai crude is bid up versus WTI because of benchmark composition and Asian demand.
  • OPEC fragmentation and Iraq's potential exit support a medium-term oil oversupply view.
  • Diesel is tight due to Russian refinery attacks, while LNG/natural gas faces winter supply risk.
  • He advises caution in the near term because higher oil and rates can pressure equities and solar projects.
Ideas
Yoon Jae-sung Research Fellow 5:21
Middle East disruption lifts crude and Dubai
Yoon argues Middle East disruptions are constraining crude flows: Hormuz is blocked, Bab el-Mandeb is threatened, and the Saudi east-west pipeline has been attacked. Saudi storage covers only about 10 days, and if the pipeline outage lasts five to six weeks, crude sourcing issues could emerge by November, supporting oil prices into year-end. The Dubai benchmark is especially bid because its basket excludes trapped Hormuz-area grades, widening the Dubai premium over WTI and raising Asian refiners' costs.
USO WTI MED
Yoon Jae-sung Research Fellow 9:07
Overweight refiners; buy dips on ample crude
Yoon maintains an overweight on Korean refiners despite near-term correction risk. Over the medium term, Asian crude supply should remain ample as Middle East producers lose customers, OPEC fragments, and importers diversify away from Hormuz, expanding Asian refiners' crude sourcing options and supporting refining margins. War ending would also remove domestic fuel price caps, helping Korean refiners. Near term, the oil spike squeezes margins and raises sourcing and freight risks, so investors should not chase and should buy on corrections.
Korean refiners 096770.KS 010950.KS HIGH
Yoon Jae-sung Research Fellow 12:34
Low gas storage risks winter spike
Yoon argues Qatar LNG accounts for more than 20% of global LNG supply but cannot exit without passing through Hormuz, so importers are diversifying and long-term gas demand should grow as electrification favors gas over oil. Europe entered winter with gas storage only around 60% versus normal 70-80%, and some countries have said they will not fill storage, creating upside risk for natural gas and LNG if winter is cold.
LNG UNG MED
Yoon Jae-sung Research Fellow 18:03
Diesel tightness supports higher diesel prices
Yoon notes US diesel prices are at record highs because Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries have reduced Russian refining, forcing Europe to source diesel from the US and tightening US diesel supply. If the US bans petroleum product exports due to domestic shortages, diesel could spike further. This is a bullish tightness thesis for diesel.
HO=F MED
Yoon Jae-sung Research Fellow 21:14
Solar tariffs lift Korean solar makers
Yoon sees US Section 232 solar measures protecting polysilicon, wafer, cell, and module production, ultimately to protect semiconductor-grade polysilicon upstream. The policy sets a minimum profit price, supporting solar prices. Korean solar firms with non-China US supply chains, especially OCI Holdings and Hanwha Solutions, should benefit. Short-term weakness from anti-hoarding restrictions before December 4 implementation and possible earnings misses is a buying opportunity; the long-term outlook remains positive.
TAN 009830.KS 010060.KS HIGH
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This 3PRO TV (삼프로TV) video, published September 15, 2026, features Yoon Jae-sung discussing USO, WTI, Korean refiners, 096770.KS, 010950.KS, LNG, UNG, HO=F, TAN, 009830.KS, 010060.KS. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Yoon Jae-sung  · Tickers: USO, WTI, Korean refiners, 096770.KS, 010950.KS, LNG, UNG, HO=F, TAN, 009830.KS, 010060.KS