Yoon Jae-sung

Hanwha Solutions has shifted entirely to non-Chinese polysilicon (from OCI Holdings) and holds 8.4GW US module capacity (~13-14% market share). As US OBBA Act excludes Chinese modules (which account for 40% of US capacity), Hanwha Solutions should capture pricing power and margin expansion, mirroring the re-rating seen in First Solar and T1 Energy.

OCI Holdings is the lowest-cost non-Chinese polysilicon producer globally, using Malaysian hydropower. It will benefit from US policies (OBBA Act) excluding Chinese solar content, has potential SpaceX space solar supply contract, and plans significant capacity expansion from 35k tons to 65k tons, providing substantial upside.

The structural shift in global oil markets—Middle East refinery/chemical capacity damaged (4-5% offline for 1-1.5 years), US shale production peaking (new wells need $60+ breakeven vs $40 previously), and UAE leaving OPEC weakening Middle East pricing power—means Asian refiners and chemical companies will gain competitiveness and see higher valuations. The current oil price drop on ceasefire is a buying opportunity, especially during the June-July dip when high raw material costs hit earnings.

US solar companies First Solar and T1 Energy have surged due to US policies excluding Chinese solar content, granting them premium valuations. This re-rating is expected to persist as the OBBA Act further restricts Chinese participation in the US solar market.