AI Pace Adjustment Theory Deals a Direct Blow to Semiconductors; Philadelphia Semiconductor -5.8% / US 10-Year Yield Breaks Through 5%, Rate Hike Fears Grow

[September 15 #BeforeMarketOpen] AI pace adjustment theory deals a direct blow to semiconductors… Philadelphia Semiconductor -5.8% / US 10-year yield breaks through 5%, rate hike fears grow
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  September 15, 2026 at 00:53  |  3:06:11  |  815 Money Talk (815머니톡)
Speakers
Lee Ju-hyeon — Director, Xangle
Noh Geun-chang — Center Head, Hyundai Motor Securities Research Center
Lee Kwon-hee — CEO, Economist
Kim Tae-seong — Division Head, Xangle

Summary

The September 15 pre-market show focused on a sharp semiconductor-led selloff tied to AI pace-adjustment fears, rising oil, and the U.S. 10-year yield approaching 5%. The panel broadly argued the AI speed-control shock was an overreaction rather than a fundamental demand break, while still flagging macro and rate-hike risks. Speakers highlighted memory names, semiconductor materials/equipment, cybersecurity, shipping, shipbuilding, cosmetics, batteries, and robotics as areas with relative opportunities.

  • U.S. semiconductors fell sharply after AI pace-adjustment comments, while software and cybersecurity rallied.
  • Oil above $100 and the 10-year Treasury near 5% added pressure to tech and growth stocks.
  • Noh Geun-chang argued AI safety and security requirements increase semiconductor specs, memory, and compute demand.
  • Lee Ju-hyun favored U.S. cybersecurity, shipping, memory, Korean Air, SK Innovation, banks, and select cosmetics.
  • Lee Kwon-hee bought SK hynix on the AI fear-driven decline and favored shipbuilders and select bio names.
  • Kim Tae-seong gave technical trigger levels for Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, substrate and test-socket stocks, and Samsung SDI.
  • Several speakers saw Samsung Electronics and SK hynix near box-bottom support zones with limited downside if key levels hold.
  • The overall tone was cautious on macro but constructive on selected semiconductor, industrial, and defensive-rotation ideas.
Ideas
Lee Ju-hyeon Director, Xangle 3:09
AI speed-control fear is not fundamental.
The AI development speed-control debate is sentimentally negative for semiconductors but not a fundamental negative. It may create noise for a while, but the underlying AI and semiconductor demand remains intact.
Lee Ju-hyeon Director, Xangle 4:43
Doosan Enerbility benefits from nuclear project.
The first U.S. investment project may include eight nuclear reactors. Even if the reactor type is AP1000 or APR1400, Doosan Enerbility benefits; KEPCO technology could benefit if APR1400 is adopted.
Lee Ju-hyeon Director, Xangle 6:18
Trade small Korean cybersecurity stocks cyclically.
Nvidia's emphasis on AI cybersecurity has boosted Korean security stocks, but listed names are small and theme-driven. A trading strategy is to buy when they are quiet and flat near the bottom, then sell when security issues are highlighted, rather than treating them as long-term investments.
Lee Ju-hyeon Director, Xangle 11:43
Optical communication beneficiaries led by RF Materials.
Optical communication stocks continue to attract supply. RF Materials clearly supplies Lumentum's pump laser package, with volumes expected to grow about 2.5x next year. RFHIC and OI Solutions are also repeatedly highlighted as beneficiaries of optical communication demand.
Lee Ju-hyeon Director, Xangle 12:32
Cheap cosmetics OEMs and distributors to rebound.
Korean cosmetics stocks suffered from won strength, but OEM and distribution companies are cheaper than finished cosmetics brands. As indie brands grow, OEMs and distributors such as Hankook Kolmar, Silicon Two, and Cosmax may have more opportunities, and the won's rapid strength appears to be ending.
Lee Ju-hyeon Director, Xangle 13:57
SM leads entertainment rebound; JYP lags.
Entertainment stocks are recovering, but the pace differs. SM is leading strongly, HYBE and YG Entertainment are following weakly, while JYP Entertainment lags because Twice-related momentum has weakened.
Lee Ju-hyeon Director, Xangle 13:57
SM leads entertainment rebound; JYP lags.
Entertainment stocks are recovering, but the pace differs. SM is leading strongly, HYBE and YG Entertainment are following weakly, while JYP Entertainment lags because Twice-related momentum has weakened.
Lee Ju-hyeon Director, Xangle 13:57
SM leads entertainment rebound; JYP lags.
Entertainment stocks are recovering, but the pace differs. SM is leading strongly, HYBE and YG Entertainment are following weakly, while JYP Entertainment lags because Twice-related momentum has weakened.
Lee Ju-hyeon Director, Xangle 14:29
Theater recovery lifts CJ CGV, CJ ENM.
Box office is recovering, helped by premium theaters and films like Odyssey and Spider-Man. CJ CGV is drawing attention, and CJ ENM is also reviving.
Lee Ju-hyeon Director, Xangle 18:09
Humidity control matters more in advanced chips.
As semiconductor processes become more advanced, humidity control is becoming more important because small amounts of moisture can oxidize or corrode wafers. FST, Zeus, and IST are being highlighted as related stocks, though this is a developing theme.
Lee Ju-hyeon Director, Xangle 19:15
Securities stocks reflect H2 earnings slowdown.
Korean securities firms' second-half earnings are down versus a strong first half, but absolute profits remain high and the worsening outlook is largely reflected in share prices. The sector looks like a value/contrarian watch.
Noh Geun-chang Center Head, Hyundai Motor Securities Research Center 28:11
Samsung Electronics cheap with high dividend.
Samsung Electronics is at an attractive price. His next-year BPS estimate is 180,000 won, so 1.5x PBR is 270,000 won, above the current price. It also offers a special dividend around 14,000 won per share, implying over 6% yield if the stock falls slightly, plus okay earnings.
Noh Geun-chang Center Head, Hyundai Motor Securities Research Center 30:06
SK hynix cycle valid at bottom.
SK hynix's direction is good, though its dividend yield is less attractive than Samsung's. He sees next-year BPS at 1 million won and 2028 BPS at 1.5 million won, implying P/B of 1.5x in 2027 and 1x in 2028, so the cycle remains valid and the box bottom is not a worry.
Noh Geun-chang Center Head, Hyundai Motor Securities Research Center 37:23
TSMC gains from more complex chips.
As chips become more complex with security, verification, and networking functions, foundry value rises. TSMC should be able to charge more, which explains why its shares fell less than memory names.
Noh Geun-chang Center Head, Hyundai Motor Securities Research Center 41:10
AI safety features increase semiconductor demand.
AI safety and security requirements add more specs, compute, memory, testing, and advanced packaging, so semiconductors should see higher blended ASPs and more demand. The recent selloff is an overreaction, and semiconductor suppliers are in a buying zone.
Noh Geun-chang Center Head, Hyundai Motor Securities Research Center 47:11
Aspeed benefits from AI server BMC demand.
Server BMC chips are needed to monitor server errors, security, and health. AI servers use about four times more BMC content than general servers, and Aspeed is the global BMC leader with around 70% share, so it should benefit from more complex AI servers.
Noh Geun-chang Center Head, Hyundai Motor Securities Research Center 48:52
Meta AI assistant and glasses drive demand.
Meta rose because its Muse Spark AI assistant appears addictive and lightweight, and its AI glasses can collect real-world data that is important in the AI era. This supports new on-device AI demand.
Noh Geun-chang Center Head, Hyundai Motor Securities Research Center 52:25
AI glasses are key data-collection device.
AI glasses are nearing commercialization and can collect walking-around data better than watches or phones. As Meta expands Muse Spark, glasses become the key data-collection device, benefiting the smart-glasses supply chain.
Noh Geun-chang Center Head, Hyundai Motor Securities Research Center 56:03
Winbond data supports memory fundamentals.
Winbond's August revenue rose 2.2% month-over-month and third-quarter average revenue rose about 35.5% quarter-over-quarter, supporting the view that memory fundamentals remain strong and it is too early to worry.
Lee Ju-hyeon Director, Xangle 59:20
US cybersecurity ETF benefits from AI risk.
Korean cybersecurity stocks are small and theme-driven, so U.S. cybersecurity is a better investment vehicle. AI risk increases security demand; the U.S. cybersecurity ETF bounced from its trendline and rose about 6%, heading toward previous highs, with CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks also strong.
Lee Ju-hyeon Director, Xangle 65:52
Shipping stocks benefit from oil and freight.
The Saudi East-West pipeline was attacked and closed, removing a key workaround for Hormuz and Red Sea disruptions. Oil above $100 and record shipping rates favor shipping companies such as Pan Ocean and Heung-A Shipping.
Lee Ju-hyeon Director, Xangle 75:59
Memory demand supports Samsung and SK hynix.
Citigroup raised Samsung Electronics and SK hynix operating profit estimates through 2027-2028, citing HBM expectations, DRAM demand, and NAND supply shortages. AI continuous learning requires more memory, so the long-term framework is unchanged.
Lee Ju-hyeon Director, Xangle 81:36
Stablecoin theme is short-term event trade.
The Clarity Act vote could pass with an ethics compromise, potentially creating Treasury demand from stablecoin reserves and stabilizing yields. Korean stablecoin-related stocks such as Danal are short-term theme trades, with momentum likely fading after the vote.
Lee Ju-hyeon Director, Xangle 83:16
Coinbase bought on Clarity Act catalyst.
He bought Coinbase due to the Clarity Act stablecoin catalyst and is up 23-24%. The chart looks bottom-ish, but he is considering selling because the Senate vote could fail.
Lee Ju-hyeon Director, Xangle 93:59
Hanmi Pharm stands out in obesity bio.
In the bio/obesity space, most Korean names do not look attractive, but Hanmi Pharm stands out based on price direction and is worth watching today.
Lee Ju-hyeon Director, Xangle 98:39
Cosmetics act as weak-market outperformers.
Cosmetics stocks have been relatively strong when the market is weak. Silicon Two, Hankook Cosmetics, and Cosmax are highlighted as names that can rise during market corrections.
Lee Ju-hyeon Director, Xangle 101:00
AhnLab is only long-term Korean security stock.
Korean cybersecurity stocks are mostly trading vehicles, but if one must hold a Korean security stock long term, AhnLab is the only meaningful choice due to its size and ability to survive; he suggests a roughly three-year holding period.
Lee Ju-hyeon Director, Xangle 107:28
Korean Air benefits from travel and merger.
Foreigners are actively buying Korean Air as the won strength slows and travel demand improves. The Asiana merger creates synergies, and the stock has shown good resilience despite higher oil; he suggests buying near the 28,000 won support.
Lee Ju-hyeon Director, Xangle 109:27
Rising rates favor Korean bank stocks.
Rising interest rates favor Korean banks. Hana Financial Group, Woori Financial Group, and Shinhan Financial Group are highlighted as good bank exposure.
Lee Ju-hyeon Director, Xangle 109:35
SK Innovation breakout on energy and batteries.
SK Innovation broke above its 130,000 won resistance and is trying to escape a long box. High oil prices and battery/ESS momentum, including LFP, support the stock; he suggests buying near the 20-day moving average with a stop below support.
Lee Kwon-hee CEO, Economist 118:25
Bought SK hynix on AI overreaction.
The AI speed-control scare was a derivative-driven overreaction that hit hardware while software rose. He bought SK hynix on the sharp decline and already holds a lot of Samsung Electronics, expecting rational buying to return to memory semiconductors.
Lee Kwon-hee CEO, Economist 119:29
Alteogen ignores positive Keytruda SC data.
Alteogen is not reacting despite Keytruda SC sales rising 12% through August. The stock may be underappreciated on this positive data.
Lee Kwon-hee CEO, Economist 120:45
Shipbuilders benefit from freight and orders.
Shipping rates are surging because ships must reroute, so shipowners are making money and will order new vessels. HD Hyundai Heavy Industries has overwhelming orders in LPG/VLGC and HiMSEN engines; Samsung Heavy Industries benefits from LNG carriers and FLNG where demand is rising and costs are falling; Hanwha Ocean benefits from large crude carriers, replacement demand, and Korean Navy destroyer orders.
Lee Kwon-hee CEO, Economist 126:15
J2G Bio has ignored positive pipeline news.
J2G Bio has good news, including a monthly dementia injection with confirmed stability and microsphere/sustained-release technology, but the market is ignoring it. It could be a hidden bio idea.
Lee Kwon-hee CEO, Economist 128:19
Alginomics RNA technology gaining recognition.
Alginomics recently reported positive news that its circular RNA production efficiency improved sevenfold, gaining technical recognition in RNA therapeutics. It is one of few Korean RNA-related companies.
Lee Kwon-hee CEO, Economist 128:45
Hanmi Semiconductor slowly builds for spike.
Hanmi Semiconductor has been slowly raising its lows despite weak equipment stocks, and historically it stays boring for long periods before spiking. It is a watch for an eventual breakout.
Lee Kwon-hee CEO, Economist 133:59
Samsung SDI needs 580,000 won breakout.
NH raised Samsung SDI's target to 730,000 won. He thinks it can reach 650,000 won, but it first needs to break 580,000 won. The catalyst should be ESS volume, not solid-state batteries, and GM plant restart could help.
Lee Kwon-hee CEO, Economist 141:22
Hyundai Motor oversold; needs earnings proof.
Hyundai Motor has fallen too much because the market is removing robot value and also cutting auto value. The stock looks oversold, but it needs to show numbers to re-rate.
Kim Tae-seong Division Head, Xangle 144:45
Samsung 250,000 won breakout triggers semis.
Samsung Electronics must break above 250,000 won and reach at least 253,000 won to confirm the box-bottom support. If it does, not only Samsung and SK hynix but also beaten-down semiconductor materials/equipment stocks can rally.
Kim Tae-seong Division Head, Xangle 149:11
Semiconductor materials/equipment rally after large-cap triggers.
If Samsung Electronics and SK hynix break their key levels, beaten-down Korean semiconductor materials/equipment stocks should rally. He advises focusing on these suppliers when the large-cap triggers are met.
Kim Tae-seong Division Head, Xangle 159:48
SK hynix 1,725,000 won is key trigger.
SK hynix needs to break above 1,725,000 won to confirm strength, while a break below 1,670,000 won would be a risk signal. Above the trigger, semiconductor materials/equipment should follow.
Kim Tae-seong Division Head, Xangle 165:06
Simmtech and TLB lead substrate rally.
Within semiconductor materials/equipment, he favors substrate stocks. Simmtech is tied to Micron, Samsung, and SK hynix and has the largest market share; TLB is gaining leverage. Korea Circuit and Daeduck Electronics may wait until TLB catches up, but Simmtech can make new highs.
Kim Tae-seong Division Head, Xangle 165:06
Simmtech and TLB lead substrate rally.
Within semiconductor materials/equipment, he favors substrate stocks. Simmtech is tied to Micron, Samsung, and SK hynix and has the largest market share; TLB is gaining leverage. Korea Circuit and Daeduck Electronics may wait until TLB catches up, but Simmtech can make new highs.
Kim Tae-seong Division Head, Xangle 167:51
Test socket stocks benefit from custom chips.
As companies reduce MBDI dependence and develop their own chips, demand for custom test sockets and rubber sockets rises. ISC, TSE, TFE, and Leeno are the strongest test-socket plays when semiconductor materials/equipment rally.
Kim Tae-seong Division Head, Xangle 168:39
Samsung Electro-Mechanics expensive; wait for earnings.
Samsung Electro-Mechanics trades at around 100-145x valuation, which is burdensome. It will likely stay range-bound until quarterly earnings prove the valuation, so there is no need to rush.
Kim Tae-seong Division Head, Xangle 170:27
Hyundai Motor needs sales and earnings proof.
Hyundai Motor also needs numbers to show whether the current price is high or low. Until monthly sales or quarterly earnings confirm, there is time to wait; the stock may revisit lower levels.
Kim Tae-seong Division Head, Xangle 172:32
RobotiZ, SPG, Now Robotics favored.
For long-term robotics, he continues to favor RobotiZ and SPG. Among small robot stocks, CIMS Robotics, Now Robotics, and Yuil Robotics saw bottom volume, but Now Robotics has the best candle structure. He prefers industrial/logistics robots that can be applied now over AI 3D vision and control software.
Kim Tae-seong Division Head, Xangle 172:32
RobotiZ, SPG, Now Robotics favored.
For long-term robotics, he continues to favor RobotiZ and SPG. Among small robot stocks, CIMS Robotics, Now Robotics, and Yuil Robotics saw bottom volume, but Now Robotics has the best candle structure. He prefers industrial/logistics robots that can be applied now over AI 3D vision and control software.
Kim Tae-seong Division Head, Xangle 179:05
Samsung SDI 550,000 won triggers batteries.
If Samsung SDI breaks above 550,000 won, secondary battery stocks can rally just like semiconductor materials/equipment did after Samsung/SK hynix triggers. This is a key level to watch.
Kim Tae-seong Division Head, Xangle 180:21
KOSPI and KOSDAQ rebound levels watched.
KOSPI may rebound to 6,720-6,850 if it holds, but without foreign buying it may struggle to exceed 7,000. KOSDAQ is stronger and could reach 822 today.
Kim Tae-seong Division Head, Xangle 183:00
Electric wire follows power infrastructure.
If semiconductor materials/equipment and power infrastructure rise, electric wire and cable stocks should follow. Copper tariff delay caused a pullback, but power infrastructure demand remains a second-order beneficiary.
Up Next

This 815 Money Talk (815머니톡) video, published September 15, 2026, features Lee Ju-hyeon, Noh Geun-chang, Lee Kwon-hee, Kim Tae-seong discussing SMH, 034020.KS, XGate, Dream Security, 042510.KQ, 327260.KQ, RFHIC, 138080.KQ, 161890.KS, 257720.KQ, Cosmax, 041510.KQ, 352820.KS, 122870.KQ, 035900.KQ, 079160.KS, 035760.KQ, 036810.KQ, 079370.KQ, IST, Korean Securities Sector, 005930.KS, 000660.KS, TSM, 5274.TWO, META, AI glasses, 2344.TW, CIBR, CRWD, PANW, 028670.KS, 003280.KS, 064260.KQ, COIN, 128940.KS, 123690.KS, 053800.KQ, 003490.KS, 086790.KS, 316140.KS, 055550.KS, 096770.KS, 196170.KQ, 329180.KS, 010140.KS, 042660.KS, J2G Bio, Alginomics, 042700.KS, 006400.KS, 005380.KS, Korean semiconductor materials/equipment, 222800.KQ, TLB, 024110, 353200.KS, ISC, TSE, TFE, 058470.KQ, 009150.KS, Now Robotics, 108490.KQ, 058610.KQ, CIMS Robotics, Yuil Robotics, KOSDAQ, EWY, Korean electric wire/cable sector. 51 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Lee Ju-hyeon, Noh Geun-chang, Lee Kwon-hee, Kim Tae-seong  · Tickers: SMH, 034020.KS, XGate, Dream Security, 042510.KQ, 327260.KQ, RFHIC, 138080.KQ, 161890.KS, 257720.KQ, Cosmax, 041510.KQ, 352820.KS, 122870.KQ, 035900.KQ, 079160.KS, 035760.KQ, 036810.KQ, 079370.KQ, IST, Korean Securities Sector, 005930.KS, 000660.KS, TSM, 5274.TWO, META, AI glasses, 2344.TW, CIBR, CRWD, PANW, 028670.KS, 003280.KS, 064260.KQ, COIN, 128940.KS, 123690.KS, 053800.KQ, 003490.KS, 086790.KS, 316140.KS, 055550.KS, 096770.KS, 196170.KQ, 329180.KS, 010140.KS, 042660.KS, J2G Bio, Alginomics, 042700.KS, 006400.KS, 005380.KS, Korean semiconductor materials/equipment, 222800.KQ, TLB, 024110, 353200.KS, ISC, TSE, TFE, 058470.KQ, 009150.KS, Now Robotics, 108490.KQ, 058610.KQ, CIMS Robotics, Yuil Robotics, KOSDAQ, EWY, Korean electric wire/cable sector