Why Is Trump Nuking Markets? | Felix Jauvin
Speakers
Jonah Van Bourg
— Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol
Felix Jauvin
— Co-Host, Forward Guidance
Avi Felman
— Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management
Summary
Felix Jauvin, Avi Felman, and Jonah Van Bourg discuss the emergency market fallout from Trump's tariff shock. They focus on forced deleveraging, positioning washouts, and whether to buy beaten-down equities, Bitcoin, and altcoins. The conversation covers tariff negotiations, China isolation, inflation, Fed cuts, and oil's bearish setup.
- Trump's tariff announcement triggered sharp global risk-off and forced deleveraging across equities, gold, and bonds.
- Speakers point to record equity volume and declining open interest as signs the selling move may be near exhaustion.
- Jonah outlines a SPY scaling plan, Felix buys equities into panic selling, and Avi expects a bear-market rally.
- Crypto is favored for short-term upside, with Bitcoin seen as a deglobalization and global liquidity beneficiary.
- Avi favors altcoins against ETH/BTC and highlights Fartcoin as high-beta, while Jonah avoids shorting altcoins at lows.
- Felix describes a short QQQ versus long Bitcoin volatility trade on US weakness versus global stimulus.
- Jonah remains bearish oil absent a Persian Gulf war, arguing OPEC+ is still propping up a market that may eventually break lower.
- Macro debate includes sticky China tariffs, disinflation, Fed cut expectations, and potential Treasury selling by China.
Ideas
Buy US equities into forced selling
He was buying equities hand-over-fist during Friday's panic because VIX at 50 and equities down 20% justify taking a stab; he avoids trying to pick the exact bottom and plans to add as the market grinds higher, with Trump's political constraints limiting further downside.
Scale into SPY as selling exhausts
Record equity volume with declining open interest signals forced deleveraging and selling exhaustion. He is scaling into SPY and would be 100% long at 460 as a worst-case 5% probability line in the sand, while planning to buy more when the market grinds higher.
Bet on sharp bear market rally
Panic selling and record volume have cleared positioning, and the fake Bitcoin ETF episode suggests a real positive trade headline could squeeze the market sharply higher. He is betting on an aggressive bear-market rally even though he thinks tariffs, especially with China, may prove stickier.
Short-term bullish crypto on deglobalization
He is short-term bullish crypto over the next two months because tariff-driven deglobalization and rising nationalism increase demand for cross-border assets, Bitcoin can act as an alternative reserve commodity/currency between geopolitical blocs, and crypto's value/momentum setup has improved with sellers exhausted and order books stacked with buyers.
Buy Bitcoin on global liquidity
He has been buying Bitcoin because it is a global liquidity asset and every other country will need to stimulate fiscally to offset tariff-driven growth shocks; deglobalization and demand for alternative reserve assets should support Bitcoin, and he became more excited after the washout.
Crypto outperforms equities on liquidity
He expects crypto to outperform equities from here. The BTC/S&P ratio has been resilient, crypto reflects global liquidity with M1 money supply bottoming and leading Bitcoin, and rate cuts could create a more constructive environment.
Bitcoin as multipolar reserve asset
In a multipolar, deglobalizing world, commodities become valuable because independent third-party nations can barter them between trade-warring powers. Bitcoin, as a commodity-like currency, can serve as an alternative reserve asset to intermediate between geopolitical hemispheres, similar to India's role in Russian crude.
Short QQQ, long Bitcoin vol
He put on a short QQQ versus long Bitcoin volatility trade because the US economy was slowing from fiscal retrenchment, the Fed was not easing, and fiscal conditions were deteriorating, while other countries were beginning to stimulate in response to Trump's tariffs. Bitcoin should benefit from global liquidity while QQQ is more exposed to US-specific weakness; he sold early but the thesis remains.
Short QQQ, long Bitcoin vol
He put on a short QQQ versus long Bitcoin volatility trade because the US economy was slowing from fiscal retrenchment, the Fed was not easing, and fiscal conditions were deteriorating, while other countries were beginning to stimulate in response to Trump's tariffs. Bitcoin should benefit from global liquidity while QQQ is more exposed to US-specific weakness; he sold early but the thesis remains.
Long alts, short ETH/BTC
Alts tend to bottom before Bitcoin because sellers exhaust first. If a bottom is near, buying alts against short Bitcoin and ETH is historically strong because alts bounce harder and downside is limited; he bought alts hand-over-fist on Friday and shorted ETH.
Long alts, short ETH/BTC
Alts tend to bottom before Bitcoin because sellers exhaust first. If a bottom is near, buying alts against short Bitcoin and ETH is historically strong because alts bounce harder and downside is limited; he bought alts hand-over-fist on Friday and shorted ETH.
Buy Fartcoin as high-beta crypto
Fartcoin is a high-beta crypto asset to trade when degens return because attention is consolidated and it acts as a pure retail sentiment gauge; it can bounce harder than major altcoins, though he calls it crazy and hard to understand.
Avoid shorting altcoins at lows
The altcoin apocalypse may be over; with prices depressed and sellers exhausted, shorting altcoins is playing with fire. Even though many are useless, he would not want to be short at these levels, viewing alts as a setup to monitor for a squeeze.
Oil falls absent Gulf war
Absent a Persian Gulf war or Iran-related supply shock, oil can fall another $10-20. The front spread remains in backwardation despite the selloff, indicating OPEC+ is still propping up the market; they may eventually get stopped out and release excess supply, causing prices to tank.
Up Next
This 1000x Podcast video, published April 08, 2025, features Felix Jauvin, Jonah Van Bourg, Avi Felman discussing SPY, BTC, Crypto vs Equities, QQQ, Bitcoin volatility, ALTCOINS, ETH, FARTCOIN, WTI. 14 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Felix Jauvin, Jonah Van Bourg, Avi Felman · Tickers: SPY, BTC, Crypto vs Equities, QQQ, Bitcoin volatility, ALTCOINS, ETH, FARTCOIN, WTI