Market Crash Just Starting, Here's What Comes Next | Adam Parker

Summary

Adam Parker, CEO and Founder of Trivariate Research, speaks with David Lin after Trump's reciprocal tariff announcement. Parker says the market reaction is fair and the near-term skew remains negative into April earnings, with more downside if tariffs are sustained. He favors healthcare, metals, and selective low-margin healthcare distributors, while avoiding consumer discretionary and tariff-exposed cyclicals. He also outlines a potential later-year equity bull case if the growth scare is shallow and the Fed eases via QE.

• Tariffs triggered a sharp selloff; Parker expected a volatile first half and says the reaction is fair.
• Near-term risk skew is negative into April earnings due to falling GDP estimates and likely weak guidance.
• Parker's top sector is healthcare; he also likes metals, Century Aluminum, and low-margin drug distributors.
• He least prefers consumer discretionary and would short or avoid tariff-correlated automotive, chemicals, and plastics.
• In risk-off, Treasury yields typically fall, but he is skeptical of long-duration bonds held to maturity.
• He sees a possible later-year equity bull case if the growth scare is shallow and tariffs recede.
• If the Fed launches large-scale QE, he would become more bullish on US equities.
• He says one-month market calls have little predictive value; he monitors Fed fund futures and credit delinquencies.