Is the Cycle Over, Portfolio Psychology, & Prediction Market Alpha

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  October 22, 2025 at 17:29  |  40:57  |  1000x Podcast
Speakers
Jason Yanowitz — Co-Founder, Blockworks
Jonah Van Bourg — Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol
Avi Felman — Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management

Summary

The podcast debates whether the crypto four-year cycle is truly over, with Jason Yanowitz arguing the cycle narrative is over-indexed and new ETF/TradFi buyers are absorbing OG whale selling. Jonah Van Bourg adds a broader crypto adoption and stablecoin-infrastructure thesis, while Avi Felman focuses on portfolio psychology, Robinhood as a long-term picks-and-shovels winner, and prediction-market edges. The group also discusses tokenomics, Hyperliquid/Aerodrome, Shuffle, Syrup, and year-end tax-loss harvesting dynamics in altcoins.

  • Jason Yanowitz sees the four-year cycle fear as an opportunity and says OG whale selling is being absorbed by new buyers.
  • Jonah Van Bourg is bullish on crypto adoption, stablecoin B2B, Ripple, Hyperliquid, and Aerodrome.
  • Avi Felman is long Robinhood, Shuffle, and Syrup, while avoiding Uniswap and memecoins.
  • Prediction-market edges include fading Trump-related NO markets and using Hebrew-language news for Israel markets.
  • Jason Yanowitz discloses Nasdaq, Tesla, Robinhood, and rare earth holdings; he sold gold/silver miners.
  • The group discusses year-end tax-loss harvesting as a potential short opportunity in beaten-down altcoins.
  • Portfolio psychology and holding through drawdowns are recurring themes.
Ideas
Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 0:00
Buy Bitcoin dips on macro panic.
He treats macro/geopolitical sell-offs like tariff headlines as non-fundamental panics that should be faded; he would sell optionality and buy Bitcoin when it pukes because the issue will not end global commerce.
Jason Yanowitz Co-Founder, Blockworks 5:43
Buy Bitcoin as cycle fear creates opportunity.
The four-year cycle narrative is over-indexed and not universally understood by new ETF/TradFi buyers; OG whales are selling but the market is absorbing those sells and trading sideways, so the cycle fear creates a buying opportunity rather than a top signal.
Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 9:03
Ripple can win B2B stablecoin payments.
Ripple is acquiring TradFi/crypto crossover businesses like Hidden Road and G Treasury to build a real B2B stablecoin payments business, and he thinks Ripple can win the B2B stablecoin game.
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 19:58
Robinhood is a generational picks-and-shovels winner.
Robinhood is a generational financial brand that will become one of the largest finance companies alongside Coinbase, potentially overtaking Goldman/JPM; it is a picks-and-shovels asset collecting fees as Gen Z and wealth-transfer money marry crypto and TradFi, so he would hold most of it long term and only peel off into strength.
Jason Yanowitz Co-Founder, Blockworks 20:28
Hold Robinhood as core long-term position.
He is a huge fan of Robinhood and holds it as a third-largest equity position; he would be comfortable holding through a large drawdown and buying more if it falls, treating it as a high-conviction long-term holding.
Jason Yanowitz Co-Founder, Blockworks 24:02
Nasdaq is his largest equity position.
He states Nasdaq is his largest equity position, indicating a core long exposure, though he does not provide a detailed thesis.
Jason Yanowitz Co-Founder, Blockworks 25:37
Tesla is a Jason portfolio holding.
He lists Tesla among his portfolio holdings, indicating a long position, but gives no detailed thesis in this discussion.
Jason Yanowitz Co-Founder, Blockworks 25:40
Hold rare earth mineral company basket.
He says he owns a bunch of rare earth mineral companies and is holding them, indicating a long exposure to rare earth miners without further detail.
Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 31:15
Hyperliquid and Aerodrome have defensible tokenomics.
He owns Aerodrome and rebought Hyperliquid around 35 after the technical crash; he sees them as the only two defensible crypto products with attractive tokenomics that he can wrap his head around.
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 32:08
Meme era dead; avoid memecoins.
Most other altcoins are just memes and the meme era is dead because retail shitcoin buyers are tapped out and token supply lacks natural buyers.
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 32:28
Uniswap lacks capital return; avoid token.
Uniswap is a tough coin because it has not returned capital despite many chances, and its poor token performance is not due to tokenomics but to being comped against better capital-returning models like Aerodrome.
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 32:53
Shuffle casino prints cash, returns capital.
He has a good position in Shuffle, an online casino that is booming, printing money, and returning capital to investors at a 400-450 million dollar valuation, and he expects it to keep going.
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 33:13
Syrup preferred over Aave on institutionalization.
He owns Syrup and remains bullish on the institutionalization thesis of buying assets institutions are involved with; he prefers Syrup over Aave on risk/reward while seeing similar exposure.
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 34:36
Fade Trump markets by betting NO.
Prediction market traders over-index on Trump saying things, so betting NO across Trump-related Polymarket markets has averaged a 13% return while YES averaged a 20% loss, with 71% of markets resolving NO.
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 35:52
Hebrew news gives Israel prediction market edge.
Speaking Hebrew gives an edge in Israel-related prediction markets because information reaches Hebrew Telegram channels 3-4 minutes before English channels, allowing him to trade Polymarket ceasefire/market odds before they reprice.
Jason Yanowitz Co-Founder, Blockworks 40:02
Short beaten-down altcoins on December 30.
Tax-loss harvesting in crypto creates forced selling in illiquid, beaten-down altcoins near year-end, so he suggests shorting those down-and-out altcoins around December 30 and buying them back after the wash.
Up Next

This 1000x Podcast video, published October 22, 2025, features Jonah Van Bourg, Jason Yanowitz, Avi Felman discussing BTC, XRP, HOOD, QQQ, TSLA, REMX, HYPE, AERODROME, MEMECOINS, UNI, SHFL, SYRUP, Polymarket Trump markets, Polymarket Israel-related markets, ALTCOINS. 16 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Jonah Van Bourg, Jason Yanowitz, Avi Felman  · Tickers: BTC, XRP, HOOD, QQQ, TSLA, REMX, HYPE, AERODROME, MEMECOINS, UNI, SHFL, SYRUP, Polymarket Trump markets, Polymarket Israel-related markets, ALTCOINS