Economic Boom Or Crash Next? Turning Point Reached | Bloomberg’s Anna Wong

Summary

Anna Wong, Chief U.S. Economist at Bloomberg Economics, tells David Lin she has turned optimistic on the US economy. She argues a quiet recession already occurred in 2024, the trough was around mid-2025, and five tailwinds—fading trade uncertainty, fiscal stimulus, easy financial conditions/Fed dovishness, AI capex, and cyclical recovery—should make 2026 a boom year. She expects inflation above target, Fed cuts despite it, and sees credit-market contagion as the main risk.

• Anna Wong turned bullish on US growth for 2026 after previously bearish views.
• She cites five tailwinds: fading trade uncertainty, fiscal impulse, easy financial conditions, AI, and cyclical recovery.
• AI capex and adoption are boosting GDP and productivity while softening hiring and keeping the Fed dovish.
• Consumer conditions are K-shaped, with lower-income households stressed and discretionary travel/goods weak.
• Consumer loan and auto delinquencies have peaked, but private credit and regional-bank credit risk remain key unknowns.
• Inflation is forecast to rise above 3%, with the Fed tolerating overshoots and possible hikes in 2027.
• Tariff pass-through has been partial, but firms may pass more costs through in a 2026 recovery.
• The main risk to her bullish view would be a credit shock that spills into equities or a hawkish Fed shift.