Trump Threatens Iran on Talks | Balance of Power: Early Edition 2/19/2026
Speakers
Summary
- The date is February 19, 2026. President Trump is overseeing the largest US military buildup in the Middle East since the 2003 Iraq invasion, threatening Iran while simultaneously launching a "Board of Peace."
- Despite the geopolitical tension, Bloomberg Intelligence Strategist Mike McGlone remains bearish on oil, viewing the current price action as a "bear market bounce" and citing massive supply surpluses in the Western Hemisphere (US, Canada, Brazil, Guyana) that offset Middle East risks.
- Markets are risk-off with the VIX at a 21 handle; equities are falling while Gold and Silver are advancing as safe havens.
- A specific divergence is noted in the agriculture sector, with Deere (DE) surging on a long-awaited upturn in the ag economy, while Walmart (WMT) falls on cautious guidance.
Trade Ideas
McGlone states the current oil price action is a "bear market bounce" and notes that $55 is the low for the hole. He highlights that the US, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana have created a massive supply surplus. Despite the "biggest military buildup since 2003" in the Middle East, the structural supply from the Western Hemisphere is too strong. Trump's policy explicitly favors lower energy prices ("drill baby drill" implied), and the market has become desensitized to Middle East conflict unless actual supply is physically removed from the market. SHORT WTI or USO as prices are expected to fade back toward the mean. A full closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran (as mentioned by Meghan O'Sullivan) would physically block 20% of global supply, invalidating the bearish thesis.
Walmart shares are falling after issuing a full-year earnings forecast that fell short of estimates, citing the need for "flexibility." The largest retailer signaling caution and needing flexibility implies the low-to-mid-end consumer is weaker than expected, contradicting the "soft landing" narrative. SHORT WMT as a proxy for weakening consumer strength. Trump's affordability measures (lower gas prices) could eventually boost disposable income for WMT shoppers.
DoorDash shares are rising after its outlook for orders beat Wall Street expectations. Despite broader concerns about consumer affordability (mentioned by Trump/Political Panel), the specific demand for delivery services remains resilient, showing pricing power and consumer stickiness. LONG DASH on earnings strength relative to the broader retail sector. Broader consumer recession impacting discretionary spending.
eBay shares are up 5% after agreeing to buy Depop for $1.2 billion. The acquisition is explicitly targeted at "attracting younger shoppers," addressing eBay's core demographic weakness. The market is rewarding this strategic pivot immediately. LONG EBAY on successful strategic M&A. Integration execution risks with Depop.
Deere shares are climbing double-digits after boosting their annual profit outlook. The company explicitly anticipates a "long-awaited upturn in the agriculture economy." This signals a cyclical bottom has formed in the Ag sector, suggesting capital expenditure on heavy machinery is returning. LONG DE to ride the cyclical recovery in agricultural capex. Reversal in crop prices or trade wars impacting farmer profitability.
Norah Mulinda
Bloomberg Market Reporter
Gold and Silver are both advancing while US stocks (S&P 500, Nasdaq) are falling and Bitcoin is lower. With the VIX at a 21 handle and a massive military buildup occurring in the Middle East, capital is rotating out of risk assets (Tech/Crypto) and into traditional hard asset safe havens. LONG GLD and SLV as geopolitical hedges. A sudden diplomatic resolution with Iran (Trump mentions a "10-day window" for a deal) could unwind the fear premium.
Norah Mulinda
Bloomberg Market Reporter
Klarna shares are plunging 27%, less than six months after its IPO. A massive drop so soon after an IPO indicates broken structural support and a potential re-rating of the "Buy Now Pay Later" business model in a higher-volatility environment. AVOID or SHORT KLAR until a floor is established. Potential acquisition target at depressed valuations.
Joe Mathieu
Host, Bloomberg Radio
The US is assembling the "biggest military buildup since the invasion of Iraq in 2003." Regardless of whether kinetic warfare starts, the deployment of this scale requires massive logistical spend, munitions replenishment, and hardware maintenance. Defense primes benefit from the deployment phase alone. LONG ITA (Defense ETF) or primes like RTX/LMT. A rapid diplomatic deal with Iran within the "10-day window" Trump mentioned.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published February 19, 2026, features Mike McGlone, Norah Mulinda, Joe Mathieu discussing WTI, WMT, DASH, EBAY, DE, SILVER, GLD, KLAR, ITA, RTX, LMT. 8 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Mike McGlone, Norah Mulinda, Joe Mathieu · Tickers: WTI, WMT, DASH, EBAY, DE, SILVER, GLD, KLAR, ITA, RTX, LMT