Stocks Slide as Oil Spikes on US–Iran Tension | Closing Bell
Speakers
Summary
- Geopolitics Driving Volatility: US-Iran tensions have spiked oil prices (WTI) and Gold, causing a slide in broader equities (S&P 500 down ~0.3%, Dow down ~0.5%).
- Private Credit Cracks: A significant red flag emerged in the private credit sector as Blue Owl Capital restricted withdrawals, signaling potential liquidity mismatches in the $1.8 trillion market.
- Earnings Divergence: A sharp split in earnings performance. "Old Economy" and cyclical names (Omnicom, Deere) are surging on buybacks and outlooks, while pandemic-era winners and travel stocks (Booking, Akamai) are facing severe guidance cuts.
- Inflation Persistence: Texas Roadhouse reported 7% commodity inflation, highlighting sticky input costs for the services/consumer sector.
Trade Ideas
"Stocks on the back foot... tied to fears about what might be going on over in the Middle East. We've definitely seen gold's move up... We saw WTI and oil futures, the energy markets reacting." Geopolitical tension (specifically US-Iran) acts as a classic catalyst for flight-to-safety assets (Gold) and supply-risk assets (Oil). When the broader S&P sells off on war fears, Energy and Precious Metals decouple and outperform. LONG Energy and Gold as a geopolitical hedge. De-escalation of conflict leads to a rapid unwind of the risk premium.
"Gain of just shy of 12%... did boost its annual profit outlook, anticipating a long awaited upturn in the agriculture economy." Despite pressure in large agriculture, the company is seeing strength in small ag/turf and construction. Raising the profit outlook in a mixed macro environment demonstrates operational efficiency and pricing power. LONG. The market is rewarding the guidance raise and the anticipation of the cyclical turn. Continued pressure in the "production and precision agriculture" segment mentioned in the transcript.
"Missing when it comes to its EPS... They do see 2026 commodity cost inflation about 7%." While revenue might be okay, the bottom line is being eaten by 7% commodity inflation. This margin compression makes the stock unattractive until input costs stabilize. AVOID. Profitless revenue growth is a dangerous setup in a high-rate environment. They successfully pass costs to consumers without hurting traffic.
"Shares fell to their lowest level intraday... going back to September... reported fourth quarter adjusted EPS below expectations... gave a growth forecast [that disappointed]." A miss on EPS coupled with a weak growth forecast for a high-priced stock ($3,000+) triggers a valuation reset. It suggests the "revenge travel" boom is fading or facing resistance. SHORT. Momentum has broken, and multiple analysts (D.A. Davidson, KeyBanc) are cutting price targets. The announced 25-to-1 stock split could artificially boost retail sentiment/liquidity.
"Blue Owl Capital shares taking a hit after the company decided to restrict withdrawals from one of its private credit funds... Investors... will no longer be able to redeem shares on a quarterly basis." Restricting withdrawals is a classic sign of a liquidity mismatch (illiquid assets vs. liquid liabilities). This raises systemic concerns for the entire Private Credit sector and specifically damages confidence in Blue Owl's product structure. SHORT / WATCH. The stock dropped 6%, but the reputational damage and potential for further redemption queues create medium-term overhang. Management successfully stabilizes the fund or reopens redemptions quickly, restoring confidence.
Tim Stenovec
Anchor/Co-Host, Bloomberg TV & Radio
"Partnership announced today between Tradeweb... signing a deal to bring Kalshi's prediction markets... to Tradeweb." This legitimizes prediction markets by bringing them to a major institutional fixed-income platform. It expands Tradeweb's TAM beyond traditional bonds into event-based contracts. WATCH. This is a strategic expansion that could drive long-term growth, though immediate financial impact may be small. Regulatory crackdowns on prediction markets.
Romaine Bostick
Anchor, Bloomberg
"Number one gainer in the S&P 500, a gain of about 15%... reported fourth quarter revenue that beat consensus estimates. Company's board also authorized a $5 billion share buyback." A massive buyback authorization ($5B) combined with a revenue beat signals strong cash flow confidence and provides a structural floor for the stock price. It suggests the ad market is more resilient than feared. LONG. The buyback alone drives scarcity and EPS accretion. Broader economic slowdown cutting corporate ad budgets.
Romaine Bostick
Anchor, Bloomberg
"The top end of that range [guidance] is significantly below the average of analyst estimates... definitely a haircut if you look at that aftermarket trade." Akamai is a proxy for internet traffic and cloud infrastructure. Guiding significantly below street estimates implies slowing demand or market share loss in the delivery/security space. SHORT. The guidance miss is structural, not just a one-off earnings miss. Potential takeover target due to depressed valuation.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published February 19, 2026, features Carol Massar, Katie Greifeld, Tim Stenovec, Romaine Bostick discussing XLE, GLD, WTI, DE, TXRH, BKNG, OWL, TW, OMC, AKAM. 8 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Carol Massar, Katie Greifeld, Tim Stenovec, Romaine Bostick · Tickers: XLE, GLD, WTI, DE, TXRH, BKNG, OWL, TW, OMC, AKAM