MacroVoices #528 Luke Gromen: Hormuz Could Lead To a 1956 US Suez Moment

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  April 16, 2026 at 17:49  |  1:34:28  |  Macro Voices
Speakers
Luke Gromen — Founder, Forest for the Trees
Patrick Ceresna — Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices
Rory Johnston — Founder, Commodity Context
Erik Townsend — Founder & Host, MacroVoices / Retired Software Entrepreneur turned Hedge Fund Manager

Summary

Luke Gromen discusses the Iran crisis and its potential to become a '1956 US Suez moment,' warning of severe supply chain disruptions, inflation from fertilizer and food shortages, and bond market stress. Rory Johnston provides an update on the oil market, noting that physical dislocations have not yet been fully felt. The hosts also analyze market reactions and present a structured options trade on bonds to navigate near-term inflation and potential growth slowdown.

  • Luke Gromen argues the Strait of Hormuz closure is a critical one-factor market event.
  • He warns of nonlinear supply chain breaks and potential humanitarian crises from fertilizer shortages.
  • Gromen recommends owning gold and favors sectors like energy, uranium, and electrical infrastructure.
  • Rory Johnston explains that oil market futures are not reflecting the physical scarcity yet.
  • Johnston highlights the risk of the Red Sea also closing via Houthi actions.
  • The hosts discuss market complacency and the potential for a sharp reality check.
  • Patrick Ceresna presents a structured options trade on TLT for inflation then growth slowdown.
  • Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna review technical levels for equities, dollar, oil, gold, and uranium.
Trade Ideas
Luke Gromen Founder, Forest for the Trees 23:01
Own gold in inflationary environment.
In the current environment of supply chain disruptions, inflation, and eventual money printing by governments to cover deficits, gold is a good store of value and should be owned as a hedge against financial and geopolitical risks.
GOLD HIGH
Luke Gromen Founder, Forest for the Trees 44:51
Energy and infrastructure are attractive.
Sectors related to energy, uranium, domestic electrical infrastructure, and industrials that sell into that are well positioned due to existing bottlenecks, reshoring trends, and the need for energy security, making them attractive investments.
XLE URANIUM PAVE XLI MED
Luke Gromen Founder, Forest for the Trees 44:51
Grocery stores benefit from food inflation.
In a food inflation environment, grocery store companies will see accelerated comparable sales and, due to their high fixed cost models, will benefit from operating leverage on higher nominal sales, making them a good investment.
XLP MED
Patrick Ceresna Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices 75:00
TLT options trade for inflation then growth slowdown.
Use a structured options trade on TLT to position for near-term inflation risks (via a put spread) and potential growth slowdown later (via a long-dated call), taking advantage of low bond volatility to define risk while maintaining exposure to a potential rally in duration.
TLT HIGH
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This Macro Voices video, published April 16, 2026, features Luke Gromen, Patrick Ceresna discussing GOLD, XLE, URANIUM, PAVE, XLI, XLP, TLT. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Luke Gromen, Patrick Ceresna  · Tickers: GOLD, XLE, URANIUM, PAVE, XLI, XLP, TLT