Trade of The Week - MacroVoices #528

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  April 16, 2026 at 17:45  |  19:48  |  Macro Voices
Speakers
Patrick Ceresna — Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices
Erik Townsend — Founder & Host, MacroVoices / Retired Software Entrepreneur turned Hedge Fund Manager

Summary

Patrick Ceresna presents a structured options trade on TLT to navigate a potential sequence of inflation-driven bond sell-off followed by a growth-driven rally. The hosts then analyze various markets in light of the Iran conflict, with Erik Townsend expecting further oil weakness before a time-spread buying opportunity, and both expressing long-term bullish views on uranium and a cautious outlook on gold and equities.

  • Patrick details a paired TLT options trade hedging near-term inflation and capturing medium-term growth slowdown.
  • Erik is skeptical of the equity rally, citing lag effects from the Iran oil disruption.
  • Oil markets may see further selling before real supply impacts hit, creating a dip-buying opportunity in time spreads.
  • Gold is expected to retest support before resuming its uptrend to new highs.
  • Uranium is viewed as a long-term bullish story with seasonal lull until autumn.
  • The dollar is at a key technical level, with the next week likely determining the trend.
  • Bond yields are seen as capped near current levels, with a downward move expected by year-end.
  • Both hosts emphasize the importance of monitoring geopolitical developments and their delayed economic effects.
Trade Ideas
Patrick Ceresna Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices 0:18
Paired TLT options for inflation then growth slowdown.
The bond market is reacting to inflation impulses pushing yields higher, but the same inflation shock can lead to demand destruction and a growth slowdown, causing long-term yields to reverse lower. A paired options trade on TLT structures near-term downside protection via a put spread against longer-dated upside exposure via a call, aiming to profit from both the near-term sell-off risk and the eventual rally in duration.
TLT HIGH
Erik Townsend Founder & Host, MacroVoices / Retired Software Entrepreneur turned Hedge Fund Manager 9:30
Oil to sell off then buy time spreads.
In the immediate future, the perception that the Iran crisis is ending could cause Brent and WTI futures to sell off further due to macro traders overlooking lag effects. However, the real economic impact of a 6-week oil delivery gap will soon be realized, creating an opportunity to buy the dip in front-month oil time spreads.
USO MED
Erik Townsend Founder & Host, MacroVoices / Retired Software Entrepreneur turned Hedge Fund Manager 9:30
Oil to sell off then buy time spreads.
In the immediate future, the perception that the Iran crisis is ending could cause Brent and WTI futures to sell off further due to macro traders overlooking lag effects. However, the real economic impact of a 6-week oil delivery gap will soon be realized, creating an opportunity to buy the dip in front-month oil time spreads.
BNO CL1! MED
Erik Townsend Founder & Host, MacroVoices / Retired Software Entrepreneur turned Hedge Fund Manager 11:49
Buy gold on dips to 4685 support.
Gold will eventually retrace fully to new all-time highs once the Iran crisis is truly over. A dip to the 4685-4685 support zone (38.2% Fibonacci) on the June contract presents a buying opportunity, provided the Iran situation does not worsen markedly.
GOLD MED
Erik Townsend Founder & Host, MacroVoices / Retired Software Entrepreneur turned Hedge Fund Manager 13:30
Long-term bullish on uranium and miners.
The nuclear renaissance news flow continues to improve, supporting a long-term bullish thesis for uranium. Seasonality suggests a slow period until after American Labor Day, but eventually much higher prices are expected for both spot uranium and uranium miners.
URA MED
Patrick Ceresna Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices 14:16
Watching uranium for a breakout.
Uranium has been in a multi-month correction and is attempting to turn up. It shows characteristics of a setup after a prolonged correction; if the broader risk-on environment continues, uranium could get a tailwind and break out, making it a high-priority watchlist item.
URANIUM MED
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This Macro Voices video, published April 16, 2026, features Patrick Ceresna, Erik Townsend discussing TLT, USO, BNO, CL1!, GOLD, URA, URANIUM. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Patrick Ceresna, Erik Townsend  · Tickers: TLT, USO, BNO, CL1!, GOLD, URA, URANIUM